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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #4,761
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:30pm Feb 26, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting MktScape
This should work:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/051905.asp
Yes, that worked. Thank you very much.
  • #4,762
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:46pm Feb 26, 2010 3:46pm
For a while now I have been looking into targets concerning our trades. Similar to the touch trade entry method, I try to devise dead-on target areas. Of course sometimes trades don't follow through and so on, but basically if all the ducks fall in line and price goes where it's supposed to go, it is actually not that difficult to find the area where it will stop.
What I am looking at here are 1. brv's S/R levels, which I would mark before, and 2. then extending fibonacci levels, looking for confluence of an S/R level and a fib level.
What I also found through observation of the fib levels, that more often than not, if price retraces back to 38.2 level, it will shoot for the 150.0/161.8 level. 50.0 to 138.2/150.0 level, 61.8 level to 138.2/150.0 level.
I attached an example of cad/chf h4 of what I mean. Price first retraced back up to 50.0 fib level making 150.0 likely to be a target level. Confluence of an S/R level with 150.0 level and in this case a counter-trendline.
This is just an example, not a trade I would take, cause actually we still have to break through an uptrendline, which I deleted for clarity in this example.
But in any case, the more I try to get exact entry levels, the more I also play around with exact target levels by extending my fib levels.

What I am also playing around right now is with diagonal S/R levels. Also kind of brv style. Not necessarily only marking lows with lows & highs with highs with trendlines, but also marking lows with highs, and trying to find confluences with horizontal S/R levels + fib levels.
What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf h4 26.2.2010.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #4,763
  • Edited 5:43pm Feb 26, 2010 4:52pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting Custos
Similar to the touch trade entry method, I try to devise dead-on target areas. ...., it is actually not that difficult to find the area where it will stop.
What I also found through observation of the fib levels, that more often than not, if price retraces back to 38.2 level, it will shoot for the 150.0/161.8 level. 50.0 to 138.2/150.0 level, 61.8 level to 138.2/150.0 level.
What I am also playing around right now is with diagonal S/R levels. Also kind of brv style. Not necessarily only marking lows with lows & highs with highs with trendlines,...
Hi Custos,
Your observation & the target methodology is inline with what a lot of professional traders do to take profits i.e. using Fib level in direction of the trend ....I tend to use Fib Expansion tool to project potential targets ....

w.r.t the trendline .... the more confluence levels at a point the merier it is ....and this can include the low to high TLs as well.

One quick thing is that the 23% fib level is not favoured by the pros...i.e they would take tade if only it retraes t 38% level.

i was wondering how were you able to draw these > 100% extension using the fib retracement tool...i can see that you have used only one swing swing high & low ....when i use the same levels the extension are no coming down they ar actually going above the 78% Ret leve ...i tried adding +ve/-ve both Fib extension levels but its not working ...how did you manage to draw those fib levels
  • #4,764
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:09pm Feb 26, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi Custos,
Your observation & the target methodology is inline with what a lot of professional traders do to take profits i.e. using Fib level in direction of the trend ....I tend to use Fib Expansion tool to project potential targets ....

w.r.t the trendline .... the more confluence levels at a point the merier it is ....and this can include the low to high TLs as well.

One quick thing is that the 23% fib level is not favoured by the pros...i.e they would take tade if only it retraes t 38% level.

i was wondering how were you able to draw...
You can add those extensions by adding them to your fib properties, see the image to see how to set them in your properties just add a minus sign in front of the fib number.

--NM
Attached Image
  • #4,765
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:22pm Feb 26, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting NightMoves
You can add those extensions by adding them to your fib properties, see the image to see how to set them in your properties just add a minus sign in front of the fib number.

--NM
Hi NM,
I did add the minus sign, it wasnt working the last time i tried. I'll try again ....lets see if it works this time.
  • #4,766
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:27pm Feb 26, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting Custos
For a while now I have been looking into targets concerning our trades. Similar to the touch trade entry method, I try to devise dead-on target areas. Of course sometimes trades don't follow through and so on, but basically if all the ducks fall in line and price goes where it's supposed to go, it is actually not that difficult to find the area where it will stop.
What I am looking at here are 1. brv's S/R levels, which I would mark before, and 2. then extending fibonacci levels, looking for confluence of an S/R level and a fib level.
What I also...
I think it is an excellent technique, if it works looking for an entry why not an exit as well?? I looked back on several charts and different trends and it is a pretty consistent method. Of course this will be more for holding on to trades longer than intraday trades, but there is nothing wrong with only having to enter once and letting run.

At one time I used to set targets in a similar fashion but for some reason I got away from it, not sure why but I am glad you brought it up. Excellent job again Custos....

--NM
  • #4,767
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:28pm Feb 26, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi NM,
I did add the minus sign, it wasnt working the last time i tried. I'll try again ....lets see if it works this time.
your number should look like -.618, -.382...etc
  • #4,768
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:30pm Feb 26, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi NM,
I did add the minus sign, it wasnt working the last time i tried. I'll try again ....lets see if it works this time.
It should look like this when your done, if you want the price to show up then type it up like in the picure I posted.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIBO Set.png Size: 29 KB
  • #4,769
  • Feb 26, 2010 8:59pm Feb 26, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting NightMoves
It should look like this when your done, if you want the price to show up then type it up like in the picure I posted.

--NM
Got it ...i was adding the -ve sign in front of the >100% retracement i.e. 161.8% etc however in this case the same Fib # was to be added with a -ve sign i.e. -61.8 etc...ok

Great .... thanks for the hint ...

I'll go through the charts and will be posting some good looking setups ....
  • #4,770
  • Feb 26, 2010 9:03pm Feb 26, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting MktScape
Got it ...i was adding the -ve sign in front of the >100% retracement i.e. 161.8% etc however in this case the same Fib # was to be added with a -ve sign i.e. -61.8 etc...ok

Great .... thanks for the hint ...

I'll go through the charts and will be posting some good looking setups ....
Excellent, I am glad you were able to get it setup. I am going to go through the charts as well I was gone most of the afternoon so I need to take a damage assesment of the markets now...

--NM
  • #4,771
  • Feb 26, 2010 9:08pm Feb 26, 2010 9:08pm
Any quick analysis on the EURGBP?
  • #4,772
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:52pm Feb 26, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting investing101
Any quick analysis on the EURGBP?
from what I can see, it is forming a triangle on the daily and the weekly. It is at the top of the triangle trend line at the moment. So its hard to tell what this pair is going to do, if it follows history it will fall, who knows all we can do is react to what ever it does.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily.png Size: 36 KB
  • #4,773
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:28am Feb 27, 2010 2:28am
Quoting NightMoves
Here is the hourly chart (trigger) SL is now BE this looks pretty slow for a good collapse imo...

--NM
Hey NM..

Sorry if this is a stupid question but I'm gonna ask anyhow ..

On this chart I completely missed the BPC to this TL as all I seen was a bunched up, consolidation area maybe set of bars not clearly defining as a BPC at the time bouncing from the TL I had drawn..also I see PippyD had a different TL drawn to yours and now in your latest post #4772 you have the top TL cutting through at the top point of the chart an extended set of bars breaking out past your TL?....

I rarely used trend lines until now more over the fact i'm learning this in Hectors course and I was wondering is there a simple rule to drawing them or is it just in the eye with experience and time you see things in the chart lining up for certain TL's to be drawn?

cheers,
Adrian
  • #4,774
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:39am Feb 27, 2010 7:39am
Quoting aarangio
Hey NM..

Sorry if this is a stupid question but I'm gonna ask anyhow ..

On this chart I completely missed the BPC to this TL as all I seen was a bunched up, consolidation area maybe set of bars not clearly defining as a BPC at the time bouncing from the TL I had drawn..also I see PippyD had a different TL drawn to yours and now in your latest post #4772 you have the top TL cutting through at the top point of the chart an extended set of bars breaking out past your TL?....

I rarely used trend lines until now more over the fact i'm learning...
Trend lines are pretty subjective, you should have at least 3 touches for to make a trend line viable the more touches you get the better. Sometimes you will have and inside trend line and an ouside trend line.

There are many different ways people draw trend lines and how they concieved those lines. I like to use the highs and lows for the trend lines and others like to use the close to draw the trend lines.

And then there are times when you will have to move your trend line because the PA may have changed slightly. Lets say I draw a trend line today using the 4 hour chart and it looks great and now someone opens the same chart same time frame few days later but PA has moved to a point where my existing trend line says it has been breached by some pips, the person who just opened there chart may not see that and draw the line right across the tops and it all looks good.

So trend lines are pretty subjective, just remember to try and have as many touches as you can get you should have at least 3.

--NM
  • #4,775
  • Edited 8:58am Feb 27, 2010 8:45am | Edited 8:58am
Maybe I am reading too much into this and the EU may not be finished heading south, but I think a retracement may be looming...see the chart, what do you guys think? Maybe it will just consolidate for awhile? Just my thoughts on what I am seeing in the chart.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Reversal possible.png Size: 108 KB
  • #4,776
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:02am Feb 27, 2010 9:02am
Quoting NightMoves
Maybe I am reading too much into this and the EU may not be finished heading south, but I think a retracement may be looming...see the chart, what do you guys think? Maybe it will just consolidate for awhile? Just my thoughts on what I am seeing in the chart.

--NM
The last few retracements on the 4 hour chart have been getting deeper and deeper into the trend, getting closer and closer to that 100SMA and now it has been breached along with the trend line. Just my thoughts I think I am going to hold off taking any positions on this pair at the moment..

--NM
  • #4,777
  • Edited 9:06am Feb 27, 2010 9:04am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting NightMoves
Maybe I am reading too much into this and the EU may not be finished heading south, but I think a retracement may be looming...see the chart, what do you guys think? Maybe it will just consolidate for awhile? Just my thoughts on what I am seeing in the chart.

--NM
It's very, very close. But it's not as clear on my daily. Both the swing high and low just barely reached the previous swings. Clearly ambiguous.

Long wicks on those candles too. There must still be some selling pressure.

Bears watching though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2-27-2010 07-56-37.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #4,778
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:08am Feb 27, 2010 9:08am
Quoting PippyD
It's very, very close. But it's not as clear on my daily. Both the swing high and low just barely reached the previous swings. Clearly ambiguous.

Bears watching though.
On the daily it is very close to a double bottom, however the last impulse did not take out the previous and actually fell short, maybe the bears are beginning to lose the grip on this trend...at least for a while, I do not think it is done heading south over the long term but in the short term it may getting ready for a retracement.

--NM
  • #4,779
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:09am Feb 27, 2010 9:09am
Quoting PippyD
It's very, very close. But it's not as clear on my daily. Both the swing high and low just barely reached the previous swings. Clearly ambiguous.

Long wicks on those candles too. There must still be some selling pressure.

Bears watching though.
Maybe that could aslo be considered 1-2-3? I think I am going to stay out of this pair for awhile until it looks a little better (or we get a trend collapse signal)...

--NM
  • #4,780
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:21am Feb 27, 2010 9:21am
Quoting NightMoves
On the daily it is very close to a double bottom, however the last impulse did not take out the previous and actually fell short, maybe the bears are beginning to lose the grip on this trend...at least for a while, I do not think it is done heading south over the long term but in the short term it may getting ready for a retracement.

--NM
My thoughts exactly. And that it's best to stay out of here until the direction is a bit clearer.

Not that I'm one to believe the pundits but there does seem to be some sentiment that the dollar is the best of a bad lot (EUR, JPY, USD) and will strengthen. Of course if I looked hard enough I could probably find just as many opinions that it won't. Ha! As bad as drawing trendlines. LOL!
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