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  • #17,801
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:33pm Feb 26, 2010 1:33pm
Quote
You are trying to short the currency of one of the strongest economies out there that is also paying quite a handsome rollover/swap. From what I've read today it seems that 98% of posters had a bearish bias - that is a warning signal in itself http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif There are far easier currencies to short like you said.

I agree. There were predictions AUD dollar will touch parity with US dollar in 2010.

But now we are in a scenario where dollar is getting bullish, so i think it will pull aud/usd down as well.

I dont think it is possible eur/usd will go down and aud/usd will go up.

Maximum i think it may again retest 0.93 resistance and then will be again in downward move.
  • #17,802
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:34pm Feb 26, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting Clouds
just my opinions patience ... u say about my bearish view ect, im sure there opportunity to go long on bearish pairs, but i never will..
I don't see the A/U as bearish although I am able to short if I see the opportunity. If it was a sign of true US$ strength, A/U would be in the 70's, NZD in the 50's and the Yen at least in the 100's. It's just a battle of who has the ugliest currency. Well that's what I see.

I still don't get the Yen though. I just heard today that they have a lower savings rate than the US now. Their debt to GDP is around (or going to be around) 200%. Their population is aging.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,803
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:36pm Feb 26, 2010 1:36pm
Quote
its very simple, new week , if it opens above the weekly pp then it will move to weekly highs (green lines)

new month, if it opens above monthly pp it will move to monthly highs (yellow lines)

since March will open above 8868, then we go to 91

Simple analysis. PP works. I also use monthly PP.

Have you calculated monthly PP for march?
  • #17,804
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:38pm Feb 26, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting kingfisher
Simple analysis. PP works. I also use monthly PP.

Have you calculated monthly PP for march?
8868 curently but not set in stone till the close
  • #17,805
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:38pm Feb 26, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting amyc
still 3 hrs to close but my charts are pointing to 91 next week.
Nice. That matches Shahab's analysis.

Quoting shahab8b
what I think is a correction underway- I see an ending diagonal at E/U & U/chf -E/U will corrct upto 1.40-41 Gold rising in the near future to a new high- and A/U heading toward .91-2 - these are things that I see on their charts
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267143378
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,806
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:43pm Feb 26, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Patience
Nice. That matches Shahab's analysis.



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267143378
I don't see eu at 1.40, i see 1.37 being a good shorting point for it next week currently. will confirm later
  • #17,807
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:43pm Feb 26, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Patience
Nice. That matches Shahab's analysis.


Hi patience
lots of action today- I just closed most of my Longs on A/U N/U E/U and Gold- I'll leave 2 positions long open going to weekend. I heard they will raise rates on next week- that makes this pair more interesting

have you looked at E/G , now I think why I closed my longs too early while I knew it was a Gartley!!
  • #17,808
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:47pm Feb 26, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting amyc
I don't see eu at 1.40, i see 1.37 being a good shorting point for it next week currently. will confirm later
hi amyc, it's not supposed to happen in one week, give it some time
  • #17,809
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:47pm Feb 26, 2010 1:47pm
hmm.. am i only one that think it look bearish?

Attached Image
  • #17,810
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:50pm Feb 26, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi patience
lots of action today- I just closed most of my Longs on A/U N/U E/U and Gold- I'll leave 2 positions long open going to weekend. I heard they will raise rates on next week- that makes this pair more interesting

have you looked at E/G , now I think why I closed my longs too early while I knew it was a Gartley!!
Hi Shahab

Yeah, I was thinking you were right again I'm just seeing GBP being pummelled every which way. It really is the ugly sister.

That bearish divergence on daily USDX seems to be playing out but there's been such a lot of chop to get through. Another doji on weekly as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-daily-26feb.jpg Size: 188 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,811
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:54pm Feb 26, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting Clouds
hmm.. am i only one that think it look bearish?

Attachment
Lol - no, it's just your bearish buddies ain't around at the moment The bulls have taken over for a few minutes
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,812
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:54pm Feb 26, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi amyc, it's not supposed to happen in one week, give it some time
If we shoot up and over 1.37 before close then i will agree with you but if not then I will short where the yellow and pink lines meet next week around 1.37 and hold it to 1.3404
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #17,813
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:56pm Feb 26, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting Patience
Lol - no, it's just your bearish buddies ain't around at the moment The bulls have taken over for a few minutes
but on my chart the SMA pointing down, and cross
does that mean anything to u
  • #17,814
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:57pm Feb 26, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting Patience
Hi Shahab

Yeah, I was thinking you were right again I'm just seeing GBP being pummelled every which way. It really is the ugly sister.

That bearish divergence on daily USDX seems to be playing out but there's been such a lot of chop to get through. Another doji on weekly as well.
right, remember I posted 5-6 weeks ago that G/U is diamond top- then people kept taking long on G/U-
some fib points: A/U is in between but I prefer long side
G/U is getting S at 50% fib
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu9.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au8.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #17,815
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:58pm Feb 26, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting Clouds
but on my chart the SMA pointing down, and cross
does that mean anything to u
what TF, what's the period of your SMA?
  • #17,816
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:01pm Feb 26, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
what TF, what's the period of your SMA?
4HR 20/40
  • #17,817
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:03pm Feb 26, 2010 2:03pm
Hi Clouds, Do you think NZD will weaken? My opinion is that it is highly overvalued against the GBP and USD and that the economy there isnt as good as people think
Thanks
  • #17,818
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:07pm Feb 26, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Clouds
but on my chart the SMA pointing down, and cross
does that mean anything to u
It is something I take into consideration but I'm not going to let it blind me to long opportunities. We could consolidate in this area for months. Who knows? Look at EUR/JPY - it had been consolidating in a range since last April before it broke. AUD needs bad data and we're not getting it at the moment. I need to see it below my 200 day MA and I'll be more bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-DAILY.jpg Size: 158 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,819
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:12pm Feb 26, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Clouds
4HR 20/40
my analysis is A/U 4H bullish as far as S at .8870 holds
I'll just take long above that level
PA and Fib are the safest way to tell the trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au9.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #17,820
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:12pm Feb 26, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Patience
It is something I take into consideration but I'm not going to let it blind me to long opportunities. We could consolidate in this area for months. Who knows? Look at EUR/JPY - it had been consolidating in a range since last April before it broke.

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Ok, but I see resistance
3 charts

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