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  • #10,221
  • Feb 25, 2010 5:04am Feb 25, 2010 5:04am
Right soso!And after IB you could add something.
My humble opinion.
  • #10,222
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:17am Feb 25, 2010 7:17am
ok take a look at GA even on H1 (or H4 if you prefer) // comments?
  • #10,223
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:22am Feb 25, 2010 7:22am
EJ support at 115 (monthly chart) = double bottom... still room to go..short till 115?
  • #10,224
  • Feb 25, 2010 3:53pm Feb 25, 2010 3:53pm
AUD/NZD:Monthly-december closed as a big beob(first sign of seller),february(not closed yet)reached 1.2930(5 times reached till now and every single time rejected).Weekly-seems to close like a SS(not yet)rejected from the same 1.2930.Daily closed as a beob.I don't say that is time to sell,i say that the buyers loose force and the sellers begin to show up.I will wait the confirmation of down trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: img1.gif Size: 24 KB
My humble opinion.
  • #10,225
  • Feb 25, 2010 4:15pm Feb 25, 2010 4:15pm
USDCHF

Tweezer top at double top

2nd BEEB in 6 days

Worker in UP trend in rising wedge

What to do? (Buddy Holly 1957)

I know…………………………………………………………………………….
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 27 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,226
  • Feb 25, 2010 4:16pm Feb 25, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting igmal
AUD/NZD:Monthly-december closed as a big beob(first sign of seller),february(not closed yet)reached 1.2930(5 times reached till now and every single time rejected).Weekly-seems to close like a SS(not yet)rejected from the same 1.2930.Daily closed as a beob.I don't say that is time to sell,i say that the buyers loose force and the sellers begin to show up.I will wait the confirmation of down trend.
December was a BEEB, Jan an IB but February made a new HIGH and looks like it will close very bullish. The resistance look very strong and Big Boss might close below it, unless tomorrow doesn't go down.

Boss is moving inside a triangle and it's at resistance.

Worker has PA (BEEB) at major resistance. A limit SELL below with SL above the HIGH is in order.

Here's my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_daily.png Size: 28 KB
  • #10,227
  • Feb 25, 2010 4:23pm Feb 25, 2010 4:23pm
"I don't say that is time to sell,i say that the buyers loose force and the sellers begin to show up.I will wait the confirmation of down trend."

Igmal I have been watching this one too and I agree the 1.2930 PPZ has shown some resilience but I would love to hear from Nicola, Alexandria or Razor if there is any fundamental reason why the Kiwi would be stronger than the Aussi. From my perspective, they both share exposure to risk aversion, the Aussie have higher interest rate, recent employement numbers show they are adding jobs and they continue to be the major beneficiary of China's growth. So while the PPZ may have held in the past Dr Joe is still in charge and could take us higher. Like you I will watch PA and wait for confirmation.
  • #10,228
  • Edited 4:46pm Feb 25, 2010 4:33pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting strat
USDCHF

Tweezer top at double top

2nd BEEB in 6 days

Worker in UP trend in rising wedge

What to do? (Buddy Holly 1957)

I know…………………………………………………………………………….
USDCHF doesn't feel right. The sellers are weak and do not seem to do a good job defending the resistance. Looks like a good moment for SL hunting. Maybe lots of SLs taken out is what is needed to push the price above the resistance from ~1.088

Later edit: I have the bad feeling because the BEEB is too small and it closed above TL. Its smaller than the 1st BEEB and this seems like a sign of selling weakness. On my chart its a small doji actually.
  • #10,229
  • Feb 25, 2010 4:46pm Feb 25, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting hcristea
USDCHF doesn't feel right. The sellers are weak and do not seem to do a good job defending the resistance. Looks like a good moment for SL hunting. Maybe lots of SLs taken out is what is needed to push the price above the resistance from ~1.088
Second that.

Today's bar is an IB, which is not PA to do anything for us.
Weekly remains an IB also.
Worker and Boss not in agreement.
No trade.
  • #10,230
  • Feb 25, 2010 4:50pm Feb 25, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting strat
USDCHF

Tweezer top at double top

2nd BEEB in 6 days

Worker in UP trend in rising wedge

What to do? (Buddy Holly 1957)

I know…………………………………………………………………………….

Bring stop below bar of 23 Feb?
Worker in uptrend, boss making HH and HL, big boss "controlling bar" bullish.
Wait for resolution of this area - looking for daily close above 1.09 to add to position?
  • #10,231
  • Feb 25, 2010 5:35pm Feb 25, 2010 5:35pm
In my humble opinion i will wait.If it will go down,i will wait to broke the border (maybe a retest of it)and PA.If it will go up i will wait to broke R(maybe a retst of it)and PA.
My humble opinion.
  • #10,232
  • Edited 7:05pm Feb 25, 2010 5:57pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting soso
I see there's a lot of talk about JPY, why BOJ doesn't like a strong yen etc etc and that a long term yen down trend is about to start (meaning long usdjpy, eurjpy ... just to be clear). Unfortunately "is about" has no value whatsoever in my humble opinion. Until the trend "has changed" why not stick with the good old trend? Simply following Strat's good friend, Dr. Joe, advice? Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

I hate to post after the fact charts but I believe this is a good example. Take EURJPY,...

What exactly is the trend in the JPY pairs? Larry, what is the trade of lowest risk at this point?
  • #10,233
  • Feb 25, 2010 6:17pm Feb 25, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting Donadoney
AUD/NZD

I know its like its 8th attempt to break this level. I believe there has been a fundamental shift in the favor of the aussie as far as interest rates go, and it may lead to a nice move. The trend has been sideways but on the BOSS and BIG BOSS the MAs momentum are shifting upwards. The next key resistance level on my chart is at 1.36.

GL
I agree with Donadoney, I dont have a lot of historical data on my chart, but I would be buying this on dips ...
The fundamentals support the Aussie, unemployment is declining for AUD (down to 5.3% from 5.5%) whereas they are still increasing in NZD (up to 7.3% from 6.5%). Australia is seen as having the central bank that best managed the crisis and the Aussie is the China trade. Money that is unable to invest in China goes to AUD instead as one of its closest trading partners.
The only fundamentals in favour of a short are that a LOT of money has gone to Aussie on the "risk-on" trade which is why it falls so hard on "risk-off day" like today. % wise the Aussie had the biggest fall today.

Anyway I am going to pass on this one, Blackeagle is the one who would be best able to advise on this pair.
  • #10,234
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:46pm Feb 25, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting Alexandra
What exactly is the trend in the JPY pairs?
Uh oh (I am thinking why me)
Medium term I am bullish the crosses. We are on major fib levels for euro / sterling etc. and I would be astonished if we didn't bounce ...
BUT
I look at the chart monthly chart of USDJPY and I cannot see any reason why we won't be in the 70's in the next few months and I don't think thats good news for any of the JPY crosses. I would not be surprised to see EURJPY below 100 and GBPJPY below 120 etc. The commodity currencies vs the yen are lagging and less gloomy. This is very long term so we will see.
I am often wrong.
  • #10,235
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:37pm Feb 25, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting Alexandra
What exactly is the trend in the JPY pairs? Larry, what is the trade of lowest risk at this point?
Gee what does a newbie know about lowest risk. I would say lowest risk is no trade!

I guess the best looking risk to my old eyes is the GBPJPY which moved nicely out of Strats big triangle and has hesitated now at 13640 which is a minor SR on my chart. The Italian tells me that it could go to around SR 130 from the june 09 and aug 09 double top for 78% retrace seen easily on the weekly chart . Being a friday I probably wont trade, but just in case I will have a sell stop set down at 135ish if the market decides to keep on moving down.

I'll admit I took a trade on this one yesterday and caught most of the pips from the break of the previous low to a bit past the 13640 SR.

Larry
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy daily.jpg Size: 158 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy weekly.jpg Size: 138 KB
  • #10,236
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:13pm Feb 25, 2010 10:13pm
All points well taken. However, here is something I do from time to time to get a unique perspective...or feel for what is going on.

This is the AUD/NZD monthly chart, turned upside down.

Doesn't LOOK bullish (if this was the correct view of the chart) from this perspective to me.

Of course looks can be deceiving.

Goodluck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #10,237
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:44am Feb 26, 2010 1:44am
Quoting Alexandra
What exactly is the trend in the JPY pairs? Larry, what is the trade of lowest risk at this point?
USDJPY, EURJPY & GBPJPY their trends are down, for me.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #10,238
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:53am Feb 26, 2010 1:53am
Looks like yesterday Cable became the latest member of the Ice cream club. The Fib traders are missing today, probably depositing their money in the bank. That's Euro, Swissy, Euro/Yen and Cable, I wonder if that means anything?

Strat, nice one on the Yen

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #10,239
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:01am Feb 26, 2010 2:01am
Quoting Donadoney
All points well taken. However, here is something I do from time to time to get a unique perspective...or feel for what is going on.

This is the AUD/NZD monthly chart, turned upside down.

Doesn't LOOK bullish (if this was the correct view of the chart) from this perspective to me.

Of course looks can be deceiving.

Goodluck.
The blue is looking nicer, red is uglier.
Price is at Fibo 76.8% from the last blue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.jpg Size: 263 KB
  • #10,240
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:38am Feb 26, 2010 2:38am
Quoting Donadoney
All points well taken. However, here is something I do from time to time to get a unique perspective...or feel for what is going on.

This is the AUD/NZD monthly chart, turned upside down.

Doesn't LOOK bullish (if this was the correct view of the chart) from this perspective to me.

Of course looks can be deceiving.

Goodluck.
Yeah .. I wish I had that much data. Good luck!
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