james16 Chart Thread
- #56,303
- Feb 25, 2010 4:56pm Feb 25, 2010 4:56pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #56,304
- Feb 25, 2010 5:02pm Feb 25, 2010 5:02pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
So I've been a proponet of DIY (do it yourself) - dig, study, practice, read, etc . . not asking a whole lot o questions. I am currently trying to accept a couple of challenges
1) 3 months consecutive profitables
2) 4 bullets (trades)
Gee whataya know postponed success at both. (rather than saying failed at both) sort of an inside joke - but I like it.
Is there analysis paralysis in this biz? I'll give you my for example - hope I get some feedback.
AUD/JPY 2/25/10 daily chart
First a note on weekly chart - movement has been sideways for many months - a ranging market via weekly timeframe
Now for the paralysis part:
lets go chronological on this
todays bar - just started - an hour or so old
is teatering on the 365 ema - on a first time back basis
I am believing at this point - the 365 is support and buy buy buy here now, as price is right about on the line.
and also noting bar is green so there is some tiny bit of reason to think it could go up (very tiny, in fact just thinking - its green going the 'right' way)
Now lets look at yesterdays bar, which obviously just closed an hour or so ago.
not 'very large', but of significant size in comparison to other bars and I want to say a BEOB - but I am checking the high vs the day before and finding . . . it's an exact TBH two bar high - so no on BEOB - -- - now some in between thoughts - generally playing a BEOB to the downside at a swing high - - NOPE - - not here and it wasn't a BEOB anyway.
but also a TBH - lower close as a continuation of the 'trend' well the daily trend is down. so again play a break low of this bar, but that is also a long ways off.
I have 79.23 marked as a ppz and this is where price is at.
and so the bar we're discussing did break below this, but the current (todays) bar is right on it - -again thinking support - it should go up from here.
K onto the bar before that - a pinbar - not a nice one in the sense the nose wasn't long enough, but other than that - hey it 'looked' ok and was at a retrace of the upmove nearly the 50% fib - obviously by the chart attached - a play long - would not have happened as price didn't go there -
-
but just on that pin now - would it have been playable? not knowing what actually did happen, I thought it may have been a B setup, where I personally wouldn't have entered long cause it didn't break, but is it a B set up anyway?
-
-
back to chronological - the bar before the pin just a significant BEB.
SO what am I suppose to think here? what am I suppose to see?
If that big old BEOB would have been a pin - I think I remember seeing a 'cherry' pick.
your thoughts - anything?
I can go on and on I think - for example just recently (see circle) price reached approximately the same low as where I measured the fib from - and noticing a striking similarity to the pattern happening now.
the white line shows price hit the 'same' "low" as in the circle (after the lowest low - the intermediate low if you will) - and from that point it was a play long.
So I think I can read - now as in real life, I need to understand what I've read. ALL this analysis tells me, I don't whether to go long or short
Well I do know for me it says STAY OUT - you DON"T know what your doing..
1) 3 months consecutive profitables
2) 4 bullets (trades)
Gee whataya know postponed success at both. (rather than saying failed at both) sort of an inside joke - but I like it.
Is there analysis paralysis in this biz? I'll give you my for example - hope I get some feedback.
AUD/JPY 2/25/10 daily chart
First a note on weekly chart - movement has been sideways for many months - a ranging market via weekly timeframe
Now for the paralysis part:
lets go chronological on this
todays bar - just started - an hour or so old
is teatering on the 365 ema - on a first time back basis
I am believing at this point - the 365 is support and buy buy buy here now, as price is right about on the line.
and also noting bar is green so there is some tiny bit of reason to think it could go up (very tiny, in fact just thinking - its green going the 'right' way)
Now lets look at yesterdays bar, which obviously just closed an hour or so ago.
not 'very large', but of significant size in comparison to other bars and I want to say a BEOB - but I am checking the high vs the day before and finding . . . it's an exact TBH two bar high - so no on BEOB - -- - now some in between thoughts - generally playing a BEOB to the downside at a swing high - - NOPE - - not here and it wasn't a BEOB anyway.
but also a TBH - lower close as a continuation of the 'trend' well the daily trend is down. so again play a break low of this bar, but that is also a long ways off.
I have 79.23 marked as a ppz and this is where price is at.
and so the bar we're discussing did break below this, but the current (todays) bar is right on it - -again thinking support - it should go up from here.
K onto the bar before that - a pinbar - not a nice one in the sense the nose wasn't long enough, but other than that - hey it 'looked' ok and was at a retrace of the upmove nearly the 50% fib - obviously by the chart attached - a play long - would not have happened as price didn't go there -
-
but just on that pin now - would it have been playable? not knowing what actually did happen, I thought it may have been a B setup, where I personally wouldn't have entered long cause it didn't break, but is it a B set up anyway?
-
-
back to chronological - the bar before the pin just a significant BEB.
SO what am I suppose to think here? what am I suppose to see?
If that big old BEOB would have been a pin - I think I remember seeing a 'cherry' pick.
your thoughts - anything?
I can go on and on I think - for example just recently (see circle) price reached approximately the same low as where I measured the fib from - and noticing a striking similarity to the pattern happening now.
the white line shows price hit the 'same' "low" as in the circle (after the lowest low - the intermediate low if you will) - and from that point it was a play long.
So I think I can read - now as in real life, I need to understand what I've read. ALL this analysis tells me, I don't whether to go long or short
Well I do know for me it says STAY OUT - you DON"T know what your doing..
- #56,307
- Edited 7:46pm Feb 25, 2010 5:37pm | Edited 7:46pm
That was my thoughts too.
There is only 1H different between the close time of my Alpari chart and the Go Trader I am demoing but it seems to make a big difference to the candles.
Is the NY close time GFT+1 or +2? (That's what Jim says to use isn't it?) It gets confusing with DST and some platforms change with it and some don't.
London, obv, is just GMT.
... from googling, GFT seems to be French Guinea Time
(4pm NY = 9pm London/GMT = 8am Australian est)
*edit* it is ridiculous that metatrader cant handle custom time offsets. It isnt 1836 anymore.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #56,310
- Feb 25, 2010 6:02pm Feb 25, 2010 6:02pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #56,312
- Feb 25, 2010 6:06pm Feb 25, 2010 6:06pm
Hey there.
Sure is tightening up - gets me all tingly....
So A PB would be great, but what f broke out, without PA and then what? Sometimes a bar comes back to test your lines and - gives you nice PA then... and you will know why you are tingling.
Keep an eye out - especially if a PPZ is in the same area. Joy!
.
"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
- #56,314
- Feb 25, 2010 6:18pm Feb 25, 2010 6:18pm
New York is GMT-5, so it will depend on your platform.
London, obv, is just GMT.
... from googling, GFT seems to be French Guinea Time
(4pm NY = 9pm London/GMT = 8am Australian est)
*edit* it is ridiculous that metatrader cant handle custom time offsets. It isnt the 1840s anymore.
Go Markets are GMT +2 at present anyway.
- #56,315
- Feb 25, 2010 6:19pm Feb 25, 2010 6:19pm
Someone please correct me if I am wrong about this, 'cause this is also the time I calculate my daily pivots!!
So if it is wrong someone please advise what time I should be calculating these?.
Taking it a step further, think about the standard day at work for these guys. Get in about 7am (and say hi to the guys who are still there from trading the previous session... banks dont close down overnight
), morning briefings and catchups for an hour or so, then get to work sometime around 8-8.30am. And even then, you arent just whacking the big red BUY button constantly. Same as end of day - it isnt like they are furiously trading until 4.59, then stop. The 'session times' are just arbitary divisions based on rough 'working hours' to give some kind of structure to a constant market.These kind of things are way more important with stocks or futures, where there actually are exchanges which actually do open and close. Its the main bulk of the session which really matters for us.
For now, I wouldnt sweat it. Go the Jaroo route of having a couple of different brokers if you arent comfortable visualising combined bars. COmes with the added bonus of helping you visualise price movements, rather than discrete bars, since you will get to see the same things in a couple of ways.
(alternatively, there is some kind of bar shifting/combining script floating around here, periodcon i think. I could never get it to work properly, but I know a bunch of people use it. Maybe I am just retarded
)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #56,316
- Feb 25, 2010 6:21pm Feb 25, 2010 6:21pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
Maybe I am just retarded
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #56,317
- Feb 25, 2010 6:25pm Feb 25, 2010 6:25pm
Had to jump in - you are NOT retarded - just upside down. You live in Australia for crying out loud!!
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #56,318
- Edited 6:49pm Feb 25, 2010 6:32pm | Edited 6:49pm
You are fine - the time doesnt really matter that much, since its a fluid market. Especially if you are trading the dailies. It isnt like one exchange shuts down and the next one opens up.
Taking it a step further, think about the standard day at work for these guys. Get in about 7am, morning briefings and catchups for an hour or so, then get to work sometime around 8-8.30am. And even then, you arent just whacking the big red BUY button constantly. Same as end of day - it isnt like they are furiously trading until 4.59, then stop. The 'session...
I don't have a problem with my charts, in fact I think that they are great.
I get 5 bars making a week with no half days anywhere.
The only query I have is the time to calculate the daily pivots, as these will change depending on the time calculated.
And if the 'Big Boys' at the banks use them I would think I was wasting my time with them if they weren't at the same levels.
Again please tell if I am wrong about this
Thanks again,
Dave.
- #56,319
- Feb 25, 2010 6:44pm Feb 25, 2010 6:44pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Vivere! | 1,034 Posts
Our beer is colder, women hotter and animals more dangerous. It isnt us that have things the wrong way around
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
- #56,320
- Feb 25, 2010 6:51pm Feb 25, 2010 6:51pm
The only query I have is the time to calculate the daily pivots, as these will change depending on the time calculated.
And if the 'Big Boys' at the banks use them I would think I was wasting my time with them if they weren't at the same levels.
I dont think you will find a consistent approach. But if you had to pick, I would say shoot for 1700hrs GMT-5 (ie, NY).
Most I have seen use NY 5pm. But that isnt exactly a huge sample. There is more volume in the london session, so not sure why this is either. Some seem to use midnight to midnight in either NY (gmt-5) or London time (gmt+0). I dont speak Japanese so this is just a guess, but I imagine that Tokyo is also used by Japanese traders.
I've also seen people with rolling pivots (ie, calculated for each session). That seems a bit like just painting as many bars onto a chart that you can, then claiming to be a genius trader when one of your 15 pivots gets hit
If you were bored, you could probably look at each currency and the volume traded in each session, then determine the best timezone to use on an individual basis.
Point is, I doubt you would be wasting your time either way. The variation isnt going to be huge, and it isnt like every bank, let alone every trader, will use the same pivot.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.