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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #56,181
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:33am Feb 25, 2010 7:33am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Jeol,

Whenever the Crude Oil Inventory report comes out.

IF Actual > Expected = Oil goes up.

IF Actual < Expected = Oil goes down.

What happened yesterday was that Actual figure was higher then Expected and then oil went up
.
The actual figure was only slightly higher than projections (2m vs 3m), but refined products fell sharply (gasoline was about -900k, vs projections of +500k) which shows demand recovering, which no one really expected after the consumer numbers the other day.

Combine that with the USD weakening thanks to the promise of no more rate increases for some time (which will lead to a repricing upwards of futures contracts), and you have a whole bunch of words and numbers fighting each other that explain why people should stick to charts
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #56,182
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:39am Feb 25, 2010 7:39am
Quoting yarin
no TL,no fibo and no ppz(only 1.5 price) because we are in all time low.
I notic the pin size isnt the biggest but he has a big nose and ALL TIME LOW so...
Your trade missed by about 15 pips and in the context of that my reply as shown here was a bit harsh. Having said that, I don't think many J16 ers would have taken that pin. Anyway, I apologise.
Quoting smikester
Come on. You haven't done your homework. The nearest support is 5066 and that was in the year 2000. It is a strong downtrend. You should be looking for pin bars at a swing high, to take them short, in a strong downtrend.
Gone to a better place
  • #56,183
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:46am Feb 25, 2010 7:46am
Quoting joelcf
The actual figure was only slightly higher than projections (2m vs 3m), but refined products fell sharply (gasoline was about -900k, vs projections of +500k) which shows demand recovering, which no one really expected after the consumer numbers the other day.

Combine that with the USD weakening thanks to the promise of no more rate increases for some time (which will lead to a repricing upwards of futures contracts), and you have a whole bunch of words and numbers fighting each other that explain why people should stick to charts
Futures like YM??

which means Yen pairs will recover??
.
  • #56,184
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:48am Feb 25, 2010 7:48am
Closed my DJI and GOLD shorts. Mission accomplished.

Now loking at YEN.

W=Weekly--------W=WALL
.
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  • #56,185
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:51am Feb 25, 2010 7:51am
Another bad girl

I'm still waiting for you, come back to me
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  • #56,186
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:52am Feb 25, 2010 7:52am
Quoting jarroo
So this was a great trade for you Dave. (your demoing , right?)
What I mean by "great trade" is that the 1st blue line should not have surprised you when it reversed. You know now why it did. Do you know how many people would not know why? Alot. lol.

Now it just come down to time and practise my friend. A bar Close above that 1st blue line would have been a good confirmation that the trade may have some legs. Yet, the BUOB is still very much valid. Your going to learn alot from this one.

lol Ryan is not a big fan of countertrend...

If I traded that pair I would take that small red pin short and fade your long
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #56,187
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:55am Feb 25, 2010 7:55am
Quoting nasir.khan
Closed my DJI and GOLD shorts. Mission accomplished.

Now loking at YEN.

W=Weekly--------W=WALL
.
What broker are you using on Gold........I didn't see 1082 get hit?
  • #56,188
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:06am Feb 25, 2010 8:06am
Quoting dobe_r_man
What broker are you using on Gold........I didn't see 1082 get hit?
No it did't Nathan.

But a profit of 50,000$ is to much to give up simply to much.
.
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  • #56,189
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:07am Feb 25, 2010 8:07am
Quoting datogio
Another bad girl

I'm still waiting for you, come back to me
Man I hate missed ones more than loosers, Is there any way to avoid them? I guess not.

could have been the great conclusion of the magic month.
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  • #56,190
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:16am Feb 25, 2010 8:16am
Quoting antgal23
this is my take on the pb

the 1.4215 level is the ppz, showing the respective flip between s and r

...
any comments plz?
Hey antgal,

I took that pin for a loss. I agree with your assessment, so that would be a reason not to take it. For me, the trend was fairly strong. I'd probably take it again if I saw it because it's in my rules.

-- Danny
  • #56,191
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:28am Feb 25, 2010 8:28am
very busy nice week for me

Cad/jpy

4hr beob off BRN of 85. Notice the false breakout of the consolidation that occured after a very strong down move. Price closed below the range too. Targeted next round number and went to bed. This is how to play a continuation bar and notice location is still the #1 factor the bar is my trigger.


Mike
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  • #56,192
  • Edited 9:42am Feb 25, 2010 8:32am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting triger88990
Reminiscences Of a stok operator by Edwin LeFevre

Here's the book for anyone interested.

Removed the link. PM me if you would like to read it.
  • #56,193
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:35am Feb 25, 2010 8:35am
Because I am posting it almost guarantees the opposite will happen, but I have observed similar price action many times in the past on stocks, commodoties and Forex pairs. If it worked 100% I would be in Maui taking a nap right now, so no guarantees.

Sorry no chart (at work and can't access charts), but if you bring the hourly timeframe for this pair and look at the 1090 level you will notice the following:

1) It hits the area and rejects pretty hard back to 1100 - 1103 area
before reversing.

2) It now hits the same 1090 area again but instead of reversing it
meanders, snails along, sputters (insert your own analogy) right above
the zone.

Many times this happens right before a drop and hard break of the zone. it also happens in reverse.

I am cautious to post this as even if 8 out of 10 times it works the one time I post about it will likely be the 2 out of 10 that does not.....

Regardless, I will post again with egg on my face should it take off north. Anyway, it is a good idea to pay attention to how price reacts to levels to get a feel for the strength/weakness of an area.

Nathan
  • #56,194
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:40am Feb 25, 2010 8:40am
Quoting tubguy
Here's the book for anyone interested.
I can't recommend this book enough........it is one of the few books I really enjoyed about trading.
  • #56,195
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:54am Feb 25, 2010 8:54am
Quoting mbqb11
very busy nice week for me

Cad/jpy

4hr beob off BRN of 85. Notice the false breakout of the consolidation that occured after a very strong down move. Price closed below the range too. Targeted next round number and went to bed. This is how to play a continuation bar and notice location is still the #1 factor the bar is my trigger.


Mike
Would that false break out be something you would be looking for to take the trade early in some way? Or do you take the trade off the break of the bearish bar? I think I know the answer to this.
Gone to a better place
  • #56,196
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:55am Feb 25, 2010 8:55am
Quoting mbqb11
very busy nice week for me

Cad/jpy

4hr beob off BRN of 85. Notice the false breakout of the consolidation that occured after a very strong down move. Price closed below the range too. Targeted next round number and went to bed. This is how to play a continuation bar and notice location is still the #1 factor the bar is my trigger.


Mike
So here, you're not worried about the recent action meaning a downswing is temporarily exhausted. It's almost like you're making a flag play here...do you take the recent drop as actually a good reason for going short here? I would assume the price would consolidate here, so I wouldn't make the trade. Is this a misperception?
  • #56,197
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:59am Feb 25, 2010 8:59am
Quoting tubguy
Here's the book for anyone interested.
I am not sure but don't we have a restriction for uploading copyright meterial on a public forum?
  • #56,198
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:59am Feb 25, 2010 8:59am
Quoting dobe_r_man
Because I am posting it almost guarantees the opposite will happen, but I have observed similar price action many times in the past on stocks, commodoties and Forex pairs. If it worked 100% I would be in Maui taking a nap right now, so no guarantees.

Sorry no chart (at work and can't access charts), but if you bring the hourly timeframe for this pair and look at the 1090 level you will notice the following:

1) It hits the area and rejects pretty hard back to 1100 - 1103 area
before reversing.

2) It now hits the same 1090 area again but instead...
and naturally we print a HUGE BUOB minutes after my post............
  • #56,199
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:01am Feb 25, 2010 9:01am
Quoting smikester
Would that false break out be something you would be looking for to take the trade early in some way? Or do you take the trade off the break of the bearish bar? I think I know the answer to this.
The entry is under the BEOB

Mike
  • #56,200
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:02am Feb 25, 2010 9:02am
Quoting Piggleop
So here, you're not worried about the recent action meaning a downswing is temporarily exhausted. It's almost like you're making a flag play here...do you take the recent drop as actually a good reason for going short here? I would assume the price would consolidate here, so I wouldn't make the trade. Is this a misperception?
No, the downswing consolidated at the 85 round number. Price then tipped it hand where it was going again. So you sell a break of the BEOB (bar marked with an arrow)

I am not looking to go short where we are now if that is what you are asking

Best
Mike
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