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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,301
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:25pm Feb 24, 2010 3:25pm
I took 2 trades today

USD/JPY short +20pips
USD/CHF short +20pips

could have extracted more profit from both of the above but i'll be happy to be in the plus and take my profit for now.

my other trades didnt get triggered was the wrong side of the box as only lining up one side at the moment, trying to decide what would be the best strategy for trading both sides.
  • #2,302
  • Edited 8:49am Feb 25, 2010 8:38am | Edited 8:49am
short signal on aus/usd
buy signal usd/cad.

i'm passing on both
reason- size of box
  • #2,303
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:52am Feb 25, 2010 9:52am
setup 3 OCO orders today

EUR/USD long got triggered and just hit T/P + 20 pips
USD/CHF short got triggered and just hit T/P + 20 pips
USD/JPY neither buy or sell targets hit yet

I gave GBP/USD and AUD/USD a miss today as box range was too big as previously mentioned by pianosax.


i've noticed that the usd/chf moves in pretty much the opposite direction to the eur/usd even the size of the movements mirror each other, is it suggested to trade one or the other as i'm guessing if one is a loser then the other will be too however if one is profitable then they both are so not sure how to move on with this?
  • #2,304
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:16am Feb 25, 2010 10:16am
Short usd/chf + 20
Long eur/gbp +20

yes, eur/usd and usd/chf are inverse. Personally i only trade one or the other, which is why i took eur/gbp.

cheers
  • #2,305
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:37pm Feb 25, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting SirSpike
I took 2 trades today

USD/JPY short +20pips
USD/CHF short +20pips

could have extracted more profit from both of the above but i'll be happy to be in the plus and take my profit for now.

my other trades didnt get triggered was the wrong side of the box as only lining up one side at the moment, trying to decide what would be the best strategy for trading both sides.
I think your attitude is great! Honestly, if you think about it . . . 20-40 pips a day can add up quite quickly. 20 a day should be great in anybody's book, especailly if you are trading full lots. Me, I go in with .2, haven't quite figured out when or if it is best to close out half after 20 pips and set the remainder to b/e, or to just close it out all together. Seems like everytime I do that I get stopped at b/e. Yesterday, entered eur/usd long and didn't take profit at all (could have captured 20-30 pips) . . . got retraced and stopped at the bottom of the box. Then short kicked in and I took most profit out before the usual retrace during the NY session.

I'm not sure what the best strategy would be for trading both sides. I used to close out the side that didn't get triggered, taking profit on the side that did. That worked well for me. However, it has worked well when one side got stopped and the other side got triggered (provided I hadn't closed it). It seems like many times you are damned if you do and damned it you don't.

I have been dinking around with this system for close to a month now and had spectacular results untill I mistyped the lot number (forgot the decimal) and mystyped the stop (that's what I get for not wearing my glasses). I lost all of my gains for the month on that one morning. Up to that point, I was up around 80-90% on the demo, with this system. There is still a lot to learn/practice, I don't know if any one way is better that the next. I do only trade one pair, and very occasionally will trade one pair for the NY breakout, and the one pair for the Asian breakout. Can't trade too many because my money management will not allow me to do so.
  • #2,306
  • Feb 25, 2010 2:15pm Feb 25, 2010 2:15pm
[i][quote=slc12312 haven't quite figured out when or if it is best to close out half after 20 pips and set the remainder to b/e, or to just close it out all together. [/I]

Hi sic, i think you're spot on with this. I've only been trying this out this week, but this is already an area where i'm struggling to decide which method is best. The trouble is with only a 20 pip buffer,i think stops at b/e will get hit more often than not, judging from what i've seen. My greed tells me to lock in some profit, and hope for a runner.
However, it seems i would likely be reducing profits by doing this and not cashing in for 20 pips, As you say a 20 or 40 pip profit on a consistent basis is not to be sneezed at, i would be more than happy with that.
Ultimately i suppose it depends on the individual to decide what he is happy with, giving up some potential profits, or comfortably banking your target and waiting for the next day.



It seems like many times you are damned if you do and damned it you don't.
Yep agree. I don't actually like this part of the method, as one side will be countertrend. I only trade daily where trend is more important. Since this is more like a 20 pip scalp, do you think this is a valid concern?

I have been dinking around with this system for close to a month now and had spectacular results untill I mistyped the lot number .
Nice to see i'm not the only one who has operator error problems, LOL

And. totally agree with m/m rules. What's the point in having a gd method, if your'e not around long enough to take advantage of it?
  • #2,307
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:12am Feb 26, 2010 12:12am
Seems like we have a few issues in common.

The trouble is with only a 20 pip buffer,i think stops at b/e will get hit more often than not, judging from what i've seen. My greed tells me to lock in some profit, and hope for a runner.
Yes, that seems to be the case a lot of the time. I closed the eur/usd and for once didn't let the remainder run. This time, it did run, but most often I get stopped out. Like I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't. I really don't think there is a right way or a wrong way cause the bottom line is we can't predict what the market will do. All I do know is that any profit is good profit . . . so maybe with that minset, I'll clsoe more often and be happy with what I got.

Ultimately i suppose it depends on the individual to decide what he is happy with, giving up some potential profits, or comfortably banking your target and waiting for the next day.
True enough.

I only trade daily where trend is more important. Since this is more like a 20 pip scalp, do you think this is a valid concern? I think this system is great in a trending market, I'm not sure how well if will work in a ranging market. Clearly not as well as you possibly could get stopped on both ends.

Good luck with your next trades. I'm also looking at the Asian session, boxing an hour before open and an hour after. Had a decent run yesterday, nothing yet today as I type. Pending on jpy/usd and gbp/jpy.
  • #2,308
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:07am Feb 26, 2010 2:07am
Quoting SirSpike
setup 3 OCO orders today

EUR/USD long got triggered and just hit T/P + 20 pips
USD/CHF short got triggered and just hit T/P + 20 pips
USD/JPY neither buy or sell targets hit yet
well the jpy trade got triggered stayed +ve a while then drifted into -ve territory didnt have too much opportunity to monitor during the evening (uk) so i moved the stop loss in to ensure i didnt lose on the day and saved myself 5pips

so yesterday
EUR/USD +20pips
USD/CHF +20 pips
USD/JPY -35pips

Overall +5pips

I see there is quite a discussion about take profit etc. as you can see with just a 20 t/p target one other trade only has to go against you and the day can turn negative. looking at yesterdays charts I could have extracted more from the +ve trades however i would have had to let the full box stop in place as if i had move the stop it would have been stopped out.

Seems this is a good system for making pips but money management definatley needs to be worked out.
  • #2,309
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:57am Feb 26, 2010 2:57am
this system is good if after news... if no, then only losing... but of course you can use a % of box to add to borders from where you enter...in that case you avoid false breakouts..or use fibo levels...anyway... very risky ..
  • #2,310
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:18am Feb 26, 2010 11:18am
not a great day for me today

EUR/USD buy triggered +27pips (managed to squeeze few extra pips)
GBP/USD no trade as box to big
AUD/USD buy triggered got stopped out -32 pips (nxt candle reveresed and would have made a profit!)
USD/JPY sell triggered +20 pips
NZD/USD buy triggered stopped out -28 pips (same as aus next candle reveresed to profit!)

Tot for today -13 pips

---------

To sum up my week trading this
Mon: -33 pips
Tues: +43 pips
Weds: +40 pips
Thurs: +5 pips
Fri: -13 pips

Total 42 pips up.


profit is profit at the end of the day, but I think this could be improved either need to look into extracting more from the winning trades or minimising the losing trades.

hows everyone else been getting on?
  • #2,311
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:22am Feb 26, 2010 11:22am
For those of you in the States, thanks to Time Warner for the second time this week . . . I suffered two internet outages. Todays outage cost a minimum of +20 pips on the EUR/USD, it eventually went to around +78 pips, sure would have been nice to have gotten some of those.

Results for this week:
17 trades were opened.

3 loses (-13, -33, -47 pips)
14 winners (27, 24.8, 12.5, 42, 38, 28, 9.5, 72, 49), these included B/E's or orders that were cosed very close to it (not listed).

So for the week of Feb 22-26
+302.8 (trading pretty much .1 to .2 lots)

72% of the trades were on the winning side. As you can see, my profit taking is all over the place. I tend to close orders as they approach resistance figuring any profit is good profit. I also will close when I think price has pretty much ended its action for the day.

This was a very good week. Last week was much different do to my mistakes and poor order management.
  • #2,312
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:53am Feb 26, 2010 11:53am
Quoting slc12312
For those of you in the States, thanks to Time Warner for the second time this week . . . I suffered two internet outages. Todays outage cost a minimum of +20 pips on the EUR/USD, it eventually went to around +78 pips, sure would have been nice to have gotten some of those.

Results for this week:
17 trades were opened.

3 loses (-13, -33, -47 pips)
14 winners (27, 24.8, 12.5, 42, 38, 28, 9.5, 72, 49), these included B/E's or orders that were cosed very close to it (not listed).

So for the week of Feb 22-26
+302.8 (trading pretty much .1 to...
slc you took 7 times the profit I did which obviously means my take 20 pips is way to short this also means your R:R ratio is much better. any advice for me?

what pairs are you trading each day? do you set a t/p? when do you move this? obviously your s/l is set at the other side of the box the same as me do you also move this as the trade progresses?

thanks in advance.
  • #2,313
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:48pm Feb 26, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting SirSpike
slc you took 7 times the profit I did which obviously means my take 20 pips is way to short this also means your R:R ratio is much better. any advice for me?

what pairs are you trading each day? do you set a t/p? when do you move this? obviously your s/l is set at the other side of the box the same as me do you also move this as the trade progresses?
I was afraid someone was going to ask specifics. I feel like I am floundering around with this system because I STILL do not always repeat myself in terms of consistency. PLEASE undertand I am learning too.

Here is what I do.
1. My box is set to display between the hours of 5am-7am PST as I live in California. I don't as a rule leave trades open during the European session beause I am asleep and can't check in on them. On my chart, it is 1400-1600 time frame.
2. At 7am I look at the eur/usd pair. I still place orders top and bottom even if the box is big (don't know if this is wise or not). At 7:15 I leave for work. At 8am I check to see what has happened. I will monitor until I start to get chicken, afraid of losing any profit I may have. Maybe I close half and move the stop to b/e, maybe close it all. I don't have a rule. Depends on what I think the trend is going to do. Depending on the trend, I may place only one order . . . you know, on the side where I think the trend is going to continue. Really, I don't have a set method.
3. I don't have a set T/P, have thought about it but haven't done this yet. I don't think my risk reward is all that great as I don't have target levels. Loses can hurt depending on the box size. I think what saves my ass is that as long as the market is trending, the stop usually doesn't get hit. Sometimes it has, and when it does I am entered on the other side and will take profit soon to help offset the previous loss.
4. the only time I move the s/l is when I close half for some profit, letting the other half to (hopefully) run.
5. Most all of my trades have been eur/usd. I have started to look at the asian session, drawing my box from an hour before open to an hour after open. My two biggest trades have been during this session with the usd/jpy and gbp/jpy. I have only traded the usd/jpy twice this week and the gbp/jpy once.

Prior to blowing over half my account last week due to an error on my part, I had been averaging between $250-500 USD a week for February. Couldn't tell you how many pips that was overall because I'm not much on record keeping. This week, due to that error, I started at around $750 and am ending it with around $1160 with a gain $311.33. For the month up only $269.23 due to the -$900 dollar mistake.

It sounds to me like you have a better plan, I mean at least you have one. My goal is really to average around 20 pips per day and to consistently make between $600-1,000 US a month.

Feel free to email me. I don't want to bore anyone with long posts.
  • #2,314
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:11pm Feb 26, 2010 3:11pm
i mix with crosses GBPCHF,GBPAUD but slightly different times box 10:00 to 12:00 am GMT ... big big profit
  • #2,315
  • Feb 26, 2010 4:08pm Feb 26, 2010 4:08pm
Pm'd you
  • #2,316
  • Feb 27, 2010 3:45am Feb 27, 2010 3:45am
i trade EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF with box set 12 noon gmt - 2 pm gmt. i have fixed sl 30 and tp 40 pips for all. i take only those trades in the direction of slope 50, 3 and 100,3 on 30 min

i have only strated last week. results are not good.
  • #2,317
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:39am Feb 27, 2010 7:39am
i couldn't trade Friday, so have only 4 days results:

Mon: +17, +30
Tue: +20, +20, +20
Wed: +10, -20
Thur: +20, +20 Total Pips = + 137

I'm pleased with the profit.
Personally, i think it's easy to define entry rules, i.e. only trade with trend, only trade if box is 40-50 pips etc.

Obviously the common problem we are having, is in defining exit rules, and applying them on a consistent basis. I'm still trying to learn, but it seems to me there are 2 alternatives.
1. close out full position at set TP target (20 has worked well for me this week)
2. close out half at say 20, move stop to b/e, run the remainder.

i think the exit strategy will ultimately come down to the individual, and what he is more comfortable with. Both ways have their pros and cons, i have no idea which one is best.

What does anyone else think.
  • #2,318
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:04pm Feb 27, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting pianosax12
i couldn't trade Friday, so have only 4 days results:

Mon: +17, +30
Tue: +20, +20, +20
Wed: +10, -20
Thur: +20, +20 Total Pips = + 137

I'm pleased with the profit.
Personally, i think it's easy to define entry rules, i.e. only trade with trend, only trade if box is 40-50 pips etc.

Obviously the common problem we are having, is in defining exit rules, and applying them on a consistent basis. I'm still trying to learn, but it seems to me there are 2 alternatives.
1. close out full position at set TP target (20 has worked well for me this week)
2....
Couldn't agree more about exits . . . ultimately it will be an individual thing. Although I have not been doing this, I like your set TP because it allows for no second guessing and emotions which for me are a huge issue. +137 pips in 4 days trading using a set TP sounds really nice and doable (is that a word?) to me.

I am thinking about using fibs in conjunction with the box, entering at the first level outside the box. Snap a fib from top to bottom of the box then use the first level as entry and the remaining levels as exit points. Maybe this would alleviate false breakouts? I don't know . . .

I have read on other threads that these types of systems don't work in the long run. Any idea why?
  • #2,319
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:07pm Feb 28, 2010 3:07pm
I've pm'd you.
  • #2,320
  • Feb 28, 2010 8:00pm Feb 28, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting pianosax12
i couldn't trade Friday, so have only 4 days results:

Mon: +17, +30
Tue: +20, +20, +20
Wed: +10, -20
Thur: +20, +20 Total Pips = + 137

I'm pleased with the profit.
Personally, i think it's easy to define entry rules, i.e. only trade with trend, only trade if box is 40-50 pips etc.

Obviously the common problem we are having, is in defining exit rules, and applying them on a consistent basis. I'm still trying to learn, but it seems to me there are 2 alternatives.
1. close out full position at set TP target (20 has worked well for me this week)
2....
hii pianosax12, can you mention your box times ? also do you use any buffer to enter ? where is yr stop ? and which pairs do you trade ?
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