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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #56,141
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:41pm Feb 24, 2010 10:41pm
I've been reading this thread for several days now but it seems like i'm getting nowhere fast. I heard mention of video by Jim. Could some one direct me where to find this ? Just trying to pick up the basics. Thanks.
  • #56,142
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:47pm Feb 24, 2010 10:47pm
Just closed my EU 4H PIN trade +80, keeping 1/2 position with SL above last 4hr candle. Seems to me, that TL was broken and with small retracement it could continue more downwards. Which would offer enourmous free traffic area, don't see any more PPZ on 4H or daily.
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  • #56,143
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:49pm Feb 24, 2010 10:49pm
nzd/usd - A mistake I've been making recently (i think), is trying to catch reversals based on being "oversold". This means I'm not seeing patterns indicating a change in trend but rather I assume price will bounce off support after a substantial decline because it's exhausted. From what I've seen, they aren't bad trades, but more likely mediocre at best. It tends to be consolidation and a breakout in the direction of the trend rather than a reversal. Example:

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I'm really starting to value trading in the trend direction and not fighting it, but the real problem I'm having is finding a sustainable trend and getting in on it. Sometimes the trends are so sharp I don't see much profit in getting on on them...such as this one right here.
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  • #56,144
  • Feb 24, 2010 11:39pm Feb 24, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting Piggleop
nzd/usd - A mistake I've been making recently (i think), is trying to catch reversals based on being "oversold". This means I'm not seeing patterns indicating a change in trend but rather I assume price will bounce off support after a substantial decline because it's exhausted. From what I've seen, they aren't bad trades, but more likely mediocre at best. It tends to be consolidation and a breakout in the direction of the trend rather than a reversal. Example:

Attachment

I'm really starting to value trading in the trend direction...
My views only below.

It gets easier Piggle. It's about understanding for yourself where the best locations are to start looking for PA. Be it looking for Double bottoms and potential reversal with PA. The problem I often see in general are people getting attached to their charts, instead of letting the market come to them. I wait days and days and sometimes weeks. And I get PM after PM after post saying, how can you sit on your hands this long, why not this bar or that bar. And simply b/c it doesn't fit into what I do so I wait. Start to find these locations that work for you(they are going to vary for each trader), then let the market come to you. I try never to be bias and force the market. When it is at an important area I recognize that and let it tip its hand. I define and let things line up and if they don't pass.

So you see price tredning strong and you are thinking how can I get into this. I think nothing more then where is the next good place to watch for a trade on any of my charts. I don't get fixated. If you value being with the trend then define a way to be with the trend you are looking at. It can be as simple as only looking for ppz at the 50% fib + PA. It can be whatever you want. You just have to begin to define or more solid way to identify things. More structure in summary and build from there. NZD/USD is an example you talk about, you can see how I got back in on a pullback a few posts back of mine. Everyone does it a bit different which is nice b/c you can put it together a few ways and still do well.

Mike
  • #56,145
  • Feb 24, 2010 11:45pm Feb 24, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hi Guys,

I think it is now an easy past for me like Mike said all the time, only take the big bar and it will avoid lots of traps.

This pinbar is much smaller relatively compare to those red bars before.

Location is nice but I am being more pickier now than before, I like big bars more now than before. The big bar rarely lies.

Thanks Mike!

PM
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Jarroo,

For this trade, do you wait for the price to retrace back to 80 and take a loss. Or you kill the trade a little earlier?

It is a bad break for sure and just want to know how do you handle this situation?

Thanks!

PM

I did take this trade for a -40 pip loss. My stop loss was pretty tight (purple line) which was a previous High. Price blew through that like butter so I decide to end the trade. I was going to hide behind the 80.00 but Price was moving so fast I just killed it.

Once the hard break didn't happen red flags start going off in my head. If this was a higher quality setup I would have given it more leeway. Its either make it or break it, no pun intended. lol

Yes, Big Bars rule. The thing is . . this loss does bother me at all, in the past in would have. Honestly, I would take it again if it presented itself again.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,146
  • Feb 24, 2010 11:51pm Feb 24, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes that's right, James16's "This is Critical" : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15568

There is a bit of traffic on this one which isn't that bad. The size could be a lot bigger though. Fighting a strong down trend. (I hear Ryanmcd talking to the screen on this one. lol)

It hasn't failed yet although a tough one to hang on to.

(Not a Sunday bar, its Monday's)
Thanks Cory and Jarroo

The funny thing is that I did wait for it to breech that blue line, and as you can see that is exactly where it turned.
The other blue line was what I thought was the next area of resistance and where I planned to exit.

Guess I'll keep watching the charts reading the thread and watching the videos,(which might I add are all excellent) and at some point in the future I'll see what needs to be seen, without question.

Also would it be too much trouble to give a short list of some of the pairs you watch........so as to help a new guy sort the wheat from the chaff!!!!!

Thanks for the advice and assistance,
Dave.

P.S I don't think Ryanmcd is the only one that talks to his screen, the only trouble is that just like my wife, my screen ignores me!!!
  • #56,147
  • Feb 24, 2010 11:51pm Feb 24, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting giotto
Just closed my EU 4H PIN trade +80, keeping 1/2 position with SL above last 4hr candle. Seems to me, that TL was broken and with small retracement it could continue more downwards. Which would offer enourmous free traffic area, don't see any more PPZ on 4H or daily.
Quoting giotto


I know that previous one was in better area, but this seems to me as a rejection of that big PPZ barier around 1.3600 and as a confirmation of previous support lvl. I am going to move SL above high of this 4H bar as soon as a new at 11pm will be created.
Nicely done and managed giotto.

Notice that your stop loss placement was above the bar that breaks. Interesting.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,148
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:03am Feb 25, 2010 12:03am
Quoting mbqb11
My views only below.

It gets easier Piggle....
Thanks for the detailed response. Yea, S/R and price action is something I'm working on, in addition to trading with the trend. I've found that the best thing about s/r is the r:r ratio - you know when you need to exit the trade because a bounce off support, for example, should have followthrough if it's going to be a good trade.

Also, I'm seriously considering signing up for the official james16 site based on the reviews from everyone. I've read through the first 100 or so pages on this thread and, while the beginning was excellent, I've noticed the structure is off. So I'm thinking I sign up for james16 for a couple months, dl the videos documents etc and spend a lot of time going over the site. I really can't afford to drop $1200 for a years subscription at this point. Do you think it's feasible to dl all the vids, documents etc. and get my money's worth? I mean i'm aware i'd be missing out on new content that comes out, but as they say in economics its thinking at the margin. I feel I'd give up too much of my current role to subscribe for a year, but several months would be a great deal?
  • #56,149
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:11am Feb 25, 2010 12:11am
Quoting daveoz001
Thanks Cory and Jarroo

The funny thing is that I did wait for it to breech that blue line, and as you can see that is exactly where it turned.
The other blue line was what I thought was the next area of resistance and where I planned to exit.

Guess I'll keep watching the charts reading the thread and watching the videos,(which might I add are all excellent) and at some point in the future I'll see what needs to be seen, without question.

Also would it be too much trouble to give a short list of some of the pairs you watch........so...
So this was a great trade for you Dave. (your demoing , right?)
What I mean by "great trade" is that the 1st blue line should not have surprised you when it reversed. You know now why it did. Do you know how many people would not know why? Alot. lol.

Now it just come down to time and practise my friend. A bar Close above that 1st blue line would have been a good confirmation that the trade may have some legs. Yet, the BUOB is still very much valid. Your going to learn alot from this one.

lol Ryan is not a big fan of countertrend trades, which this is one. I can't blame him a bit.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,150
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:11am Feb 25, 2010 12:11am
Quoting jarroo
Nicely done and managed giotto.

Notice that your stop loss placement was above the bar that breaks. Interesting.
Thanks Jarroo. Getting into it slowly, although I have been trading for few years with different approach, but this is something I want to be more familiar with

Can I ask you what kind of trailing stops you use with PINs? As you can see, mostly market gets back to PIN eyes lvl and turnover and continue with original direction. In my experience, putting SL around pre-PIN bar H/L and then move it to break bar H/L asap with last 2bar H/L trailing works at best to me. Comments to this are more than welcome
  • #56,151
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:32am Feb 25, 2010 12:32am
Quoting jarroo
So this was a great trade for you Dave. (your demoing , right?)
What I mean by "great trade" is that the 1st blue line should not have surprised you when it reversed. You know now why it did. Do you know how many people would not know why? Alot. lol.

Now it just come down to time and practise my friend. A bar Close above that 1st blue line would have been a good confirmation that the trade may have some legs. Yet, the BUOB is still very much valid. Your going to learn alot from this one.

lol Ryan is not a big fan of countertrend...
Thanks again Jarroo,
Yes I am demoing, I have a very small live acc. but I have yet to take any trades with it.
I am only willing use use my hard earned, when it is beyond doubt that I can be consistently profitable. So it could be a while!!!

Waiting for a close above the ppz is some advice I will remember.
And I realize that it was making lower bottoms albeit only slightly.
Silly me for thinking that made it ok to trade.

No more peeing into the wind for me!!!

1 trade 2 valuable lessons!!!!!

Now lets see what mistakes I can learn from tonight.....

Dave.
  • #56,152
  • Edited 12:43am Feb 25, 2010 12:32am | Edited 12:43am
Quoting giotto
Thanks Jarroo. Getting into it slowly, although I have been trading for few years with different approach, but this is something I want to be more familiar with

Can I ask you what kind of trailing stops you use with PINs? As you can see, mostly market gets back to PIN eyes lvl and turnover and continue with original direction. In my experience, putting SL around pre-PIN bar H/L and then move it to break bar H/L asap with last 2bar H/L trailing works at best to me. Comments to this are more than welcome

I like it and do it all the time. Mike's 2 Bar TS is excellent.

Check out the Eur/Gbp 4 hour PB (hehesam's trade). The trade I didn't take. lol

The break wasn't that hard and fast, but it hanged around the break level. It didn't run in the oppsite direction like the Aud/Jpy trade.

The bar the broke gave a nice stop loss placement and held up nicely. The 1st target, which is a S/R level, was hit nicely. And the 2 Bar TS would serve its purpose. Easy stuff.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,153
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:38am Feb 25, 2010 12:38am
Quoting daveoz001
Thanks again Jarroo,
Yes I am demoing, I have a very small live acc. but I have yet to take any trades with it.
I am only willing use use my hard earned, when it is beyond doubt that I can be consistently profitable. So it could be a while!!!

Waiting for a close above the ppz is some advice I will remember.
And I realize that it was making lower bottoms albeit only slightly.
Silly me for thinking that made it ok to trade.

No more peeing into the wind for me!!!

1 trade 2 valuable lessons!!!!!

Now lets see what mistakes I can learn from tonight........
Your plan is very smart. I would say your 95% ahead of the game just by taking this approach. God knows I wish I did. lol

It just take some time . .. its a marathon not a sprint (where did I hear that before. )

Your on the right path my friend.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,154
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:50am Feb 25, 2010 12:50am
Hi all

I was watching the charts last night (Oz time) and reading this thread as well when I noticed something very interesting, however I didn't realise it until this morning when I kept thinking about it.

Anyway, the chart was showing a possible set up with the usual PA and in a nice PPZ, however, MACD was showing what looked to me to be divergence in the wrong direction. I am just wondering, if divergence alone would prevent you from entering what could seem like a pretty good trade.

Thoughts and comments are most welcome.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #56,155
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:52am Feb 25, 2010 12:52am
Hey Jeol,

Whenever the Crude Oil Inventory report comes out.

IF Actual > Expected = Oil goes up.

IF Actual < Expected = Oil goes down.

What happened yesterday was that Actual figure was higher then Expected and then oil went up.

If i am correct what this report means is that they "Bought" Oil in the past Week.

So why should price go up given: they bought oil in the past week, who knows if they are still buying or not.

there could also be possibility that they have bought enough and they might not buy more.
.
  • #56,156
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:05am Feb 25, 2010 1:05am
Quoting Ezzy
Hi all

I was watching the charts last night (Oz time) and reading this thread as well when I noticed something very interesting, however I didn't realise it until this morning when I kept thinking about it.

Anyway, the chart was showing a possible set up with the usual PA and in a nice PPZ, however, MACD was showing what looked to me to be divergence in the wrong direction. I am just wondering, if divergence alone would prevent you from entering what could seem like a pretty good trade.

Thoughts and comments are most welcome.
Divergence is a nice confluence to have on a trade, but its not a trade breaker for me.

I don't believe that Mike's trade below gave divergence on macd. And since it wasn't there, I'm sure it didn't stop Mike from taking it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,157
  • Edited 1:21am Feb 25, 2010 1:10am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Jeol,

Whenever the Crude Oil Inventory report comes out.

IF Actual > Expected = Oil goes up.

IF Actual < Expected = Oil goes down.

What happened yesterday was that Actual figure was higher then Expected and then oil went up.

If i am correct what this report means is that they "Bought" Oil in the past Week.

So why should price go up given: they bought oil in the past week, who knows if they are still buying or not.

there could also be possibility that they have bought enough and they might not buy more.
.
Are you sure of this? If actual inventory is bigger, that means there was less oil consumed, so they have full supplies -> less demand, price go down. If inventory is lower, means that they consume more and its less in supplies -> bigger demand, price go up. Dont forget that FA creating price is more broader than only these inventories: lately Argentina/GB fight about oil supplies in south america, USD developement, GDP forecasts/revisions etc.
  • #56,158
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:12am Feb 25, 2010 1:12am
Quoting jarroo
Divergence is a nice confluence to have on a trade, but its not a trade breaker for me.

I don't believe that Mike's trade below gave diverence on macd. And I'm sure it didn't give him pause to take it.
Thanks for your reply Jarroo,

I was just wondering if PA and other confluence are giving an opportunity for a trade to the downside for example but the divergence is to the upside.

I am not sure if I am explaining this clearly, but hope that you understand what I am asking.

Many thanks
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #56,159
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:15am Feb 25, 2010 1:15am
Quoting Ezzy
Thanks for your reply Jarroo,

I was just wondering if PA and other confluence are giving an opportunity for a trade to the downside for example but the divergence is to the upside.

I am not sure if I am explaining this clearly, but hope that you understand what I am asking.

Many thanks
Isn't that called "inverted divergence" or "hiden divergence".
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,160
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:25am Feb 25, 2010 1:25am
Quoting jarroo
Isn't that called "inverted divergence" or "hiden divergence".
Cheers mate http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
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