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AUD/USD

  • #17,321
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:38pm Feb 24, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting Daytrader74
I'll only be there for 7 days from the 27th March and mainly in Bangkok.
Not sure how you send a PM message ??
got your msg, sent you a reply.

cheers and regards and talk soon, will let you know how things are going in Thailand when I am there
  • #17,322
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:40pm Feb 24, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi sinner- I've just read this, do you think they are gonna raise rate next week?
No idea shah.

I am not an RBA watcher, the rates decision is in the chart for me or not.

Does anyone remember late 2008?

Forex markets began to invert themselves on their usual trend metric: rates.

Normal supply/demand is based on yield: higher carry on a pair = higher demand.

But during late 2008, the markets began to punish any currency which refused to cut rates. I remember the Mexican Peso basically dropped off a cliff when their CB told the market "we are not cutting rates"...lol...took them 2 weeks to cut rates after the market punished them:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...h-for-the.html

I think it is possible for us to see this occurring again if inflation doesn't kick off soon. i.e. if this is deflation, any currency raising rates will be punished.

So for me, it isn't really an issue of whether or not the RBA will raise rates, I'm more interested in the market reaction to the decision.

If we go up on rates rise, then it is pretty obvious market is pricing in inflation. If we go down on rates rise, you can be sure the rates will drop again at the next RBA meeting.

Same (but inverse) applies if we go up on no rise or go down on no rise.
  • #17,323
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:42pm Feb 24, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting sinner-
No idea shah.

I am not an RBA watcher, the rates decision is in the chart for me or not.

Does anyone remember late 2008?

Forex markets began to invert themselves on their usual trend metric: rates.

Normal supply/demand is based on yield: higher carry on a pair = higher demand.

But during late 2008, the markets began to punish any currency which refused to cut rates. I remember the Mexican Peso basically dropped off a cliff when their CB told the market "we are not cutting rates"...lol...took them 2 weeks to cut rates after the market...
I remember when EBC raised rates when EU was at 1.6, then we know what happen.
  • #17,324
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:47pm Feb 24, 2010 5:47pm
has to stay below sma100 to be valid option

any comments from more experienced aussie traders ?
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  • #17,325
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:53pm Feb 24, 2010 5:53pm
we got news in 30 min

Attached Image
  • #17,326
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:06pm Feb 24, 2010 6:06pm
Ummm... TP .8790 SL 8970
  • #17,327
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:08pm Feb 24, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Clouds
Ummm... TP .8790 SL 8970
No
  • #17,328
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:09pm Feb 24, 2010 6:09pm
The only chart that matters to me right now is this USDX chart:
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It shows there is little point being in the market right now. Either the USD needs to make a concerted move above the red channel midline (buy target red channel upper line and above), or break the red channel lower line. In which case I will search to sell the USD when it next touches/confirms the blue channel upper line (sell target 79.6 and below).

Either way, there is clearly plenty of room to move before the market tips its hand to us.
  • #17,329
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:09pm Feb 24, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting Squarepants
Yes, our market is primed for a fall of epic proportions.
But the Australian economy is underpinned by a fookin enormous boom in mining resources. A small fall only
  • #17,330
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:14pm Feb 24, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting forexmick
But the Australian economy is underpinned by a fookin enormous boom in mining resources. A small fall only


By mining boom did you mean to say "China lending spree"? There are only so many warehouses you can fill with copper.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-in-china.html
  • #17,331
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:15pm Feb 24, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting Daytrader74
No
why no, it's same target as chart u posted
  • #17,332
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:20pm Feb 24, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting sinner-
The only chart that matters to me right now is this USDX chart:
Attachment


It shows there is little point being in the market right now. Either the USD needs to make a concerted move above the red channel midline (buy target red channel upper line and above), or break the red channel lower line. In which case I will search to sell the USD when it next touches/confirms the blue channel upper line (sell target 79.6 and below).

Either way, there is clearly plenty of room to move before the market tips its hand to us.
My charts show dx to 79.6, but then I have been waiting for that all week and it hasn't happened yet so maybe its not going to get there. Call me crazy but i am long the euro at 1.3500.
  • #17,333
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:21pm Feb 24, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting Clouds
why no, it's same target as chart u posted
Sorry that "no" was not meant to be posted in this forum lol
  • #17,334
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:22pm Feb 24, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting amyc
My charts show dx to 79.6, but then I have been waiting for that all week and it hasn't happened yet so maybe its not going to get there. Call me crazy but i am long the euro at 1.3500.
I am only holding 1 tiny position right now, long GBPUSD from 1.5532 with a stop below 1.5340.

I would prefer to position myself at the USDX trendline touches as they come about.
  • #17,335
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:25pm Feb 24, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting sinner-
I am only holding 1 tiny position right now, long GBPUSD from 1.5532 with a stop below 1.5340.

I would prefer to position myself at the USDX trendline touches as they come about.
I am waiting for gu to rise so I can short it, have been waiting for that all week as well.
  • #17,336
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:30pm Feb 24, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting amyc
I am waiting for gu to rise so I can short it, have been waiting for that all week as well.


Nikkei above 10,000, HSI above 20,000, April Light Crude above 80, AUDJPY above 80, SP500 closed above 1100, Bernanke not raising rates...

Wake me up when the recession comes

Have a good one guys, I am going to walk down Lygon Street and buy some fresh food. See you LO.
  • #17,337
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:38pm Feb 24, 2010 6:38pm
hello again Guys:

well its seems like FXCM is working to restablish the accounts mine doesnt show -664k

now it shows the proper 130k but non of the positiions I was trading are there yet....what anoys me is that at 10:26 when this happened i was already in profit and at 10:29 i had the chance to close tons of the positions with profit when the AUD reached 0.8888 holding those shorts from 0.8931 and the lowest at 0.8885

and well look the AUD now


same in GBP and EUR ...and JPY also by now i was going to be in profit in some and even in others

FXCM better send me some champagne bottles or something and make my profits valid or else i will seriusly get mad. I havent sleep in 2 days trading perfectly. GRRR i hope this never happen to you guys
  • #17,338
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:38pm Feb 24, 2010 6:38pm
close and reverse......up goes the aussie

to much good news coming out which is going to decouple the "risk" association with this country
Annoying Precision
  • #17,339
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:44pm Feb 24, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting kourtney
hello again Guys:

well its seems like FXCM is working to restablish the accounts mine doesnt show -664k

now it shows the proper 130k but non of the positiions I was trading are there...
All your positions are good trades, probably in better profits tomorrow anyway, but yea , that's really awful that happened... You may also want to take a break from trading, to sleep, or have champagne )
  • #17,340
  • Feb 24, 2010 6:45pm Feb 24, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting erikte279
close and reverse......up goes the aussie

to much good news coming out which is going to decouple the "risk" association with this country

I'm new to this forum... anyone have a TP for the aussie right now? short-term resistance once it gets over the 200ma on the 15min?

Thanks
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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