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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #4,561
  • Feb 24, 2010 7:52am Feb 24, 2010 7:52am
Quoting hytten
PippyD,

Just curious which broker are you using? 1.6269 entry did not factor in spread rite?

Anybody trading the aggressive entry, short at 1.6300 instead? I think is the last video of the 3rd chapter
Hytten,

I'm on a MIG demo account right now so I wasn't terribly concerned about the spread. My entry was based simply on the price breaking below the 1-2-3 swing.

I should have waited a bit to see how the price reacted at the bottom of that swing. It was moving slowly enough that even if it broke below there would have been plenty of time for a good entry. And ideally I should have waited for London to open per NightMoves suggestion. But my personal schedule didn't allow me time to manage all that so I took the first chance that technically met (most of) the rules.

Factoring in that extra risk I put a very tight SL on the trade. So minimal damage done. But still disappointing after all the hype. LOL!

PippyD
  • #4,562
  • Feb 24, 2010 7:54am Feb 24, 2010 7:54am
Quoting PippyD
Hi Paulette,

No, I got stopped out pretty quickly. Kept it tight on this one as it was getting late for me. And the slow development we were seeing gave me some caution - per NightMoves warning about the session we were in at the time.

If nothing else it was a good lesson in money management.

PippyD
Like you said, good lesson too... Am still contemplating not going in live ont this one - maybe a demo trade...
  • #4,563
  • Feb 24, 2010 7:57am Feb 24, 2010 7:57am
Quote
Actually that was a good entry, hard to tell on this charting package but I think you have made a very good entry on this pair...Nice trade...
Cheers

It's looking good so far I'll be happier when it breaks the 1.6250 area. It makes up for missing the gbpusd & eurusd moves yesterday. I noticed on those that the 1-2-3 micro patterns on the 5min and 15min timeframes seemed to give a reasonable entry so was looking out for the same on this pair.
  • #4,564
  • Feb 24, 2010 7:58am Feb 24, 2010 7:58am
Quoting NightMoves
For me it was a little too close to that RN I am going to wait for it clear that 6250 level now, but the PA headed back up and almost to the pip like dread had said, it took a bounce just below the .6350 RN.

--NM
Hi NM,

checking on 5min / 15min it seems to be bouncing about the 250 right now... 240 looks like a possible entry if we get a bpc / 123
  • #4,565
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:02am Feb 24, 2010 8:02am
It ran all the way to the trend line and just misses the RN there, and took a nice bounce, shoud be a good trade. There was a 1 bar pullback on the 5 min chart a small hammer at the trend line and then the break below the hammer.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 min chart.png Size: 49 KB
  • #4,566
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:05am Feb 24, 2010 8:05am
Quoting dread33
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4553

Well it bounced off the trendline at 1.6350 almost to the pip. I waited for a pull back on the 5 min chart as it broke through the lower trend line in a nice 1-2-3 pattern. My entry is 1.6307. Let's see where it goes!
That's great I got in at 1.6295 just wanted it to break the 00
  • #4,567
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:08am Feb 24, 2010 8:08am
Quoting hytten
That's great I got in at 1.6295 just wanted it to break the 00
I understand the reasoning, I do the same thing, those RN's act like invisible barriors and big bounces happen around those...nice trade!!

--NM
  • #4,568
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:36am Feb 24, 2010 8:36am
In about a half an hour the NY pep rally will be over and things should start moving again...

--NM
  • #4,569
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:46am Feb 24, 2010 8:46am
If nothing else this GBP/CAD discussion brought up some interesting questions about trendlines. Just for grins, and to reanalyze my thinking, I took everything off my chart except the basics and went to a longer time frame (D1). I thought the touch off the D1 trendline and the previous major swing low was very interesting.

I'm not reading anything into it. Just an observation about some of the challenges in technical analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD 2-24-2010 07-36-57.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #4,570
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:53am Feb 24, 2010 8:53am
Quoting PippyD
If nothing else this GBP/CAD discussion brought up some interesting questions about trendlines. Just for grins, and to reanalyze my thinking, I took everything off my chart except the basics and went to a longer time frame (D1). I thought the touch off the D1 trendline and the previous major swing low was very interesting.

I'm not reading anything into it. Just an observation about some of the challenges in technical analysis.
That is exactly what I was showing in this post:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4517
I used the 4 hour chart to draw the line with but everything was in order including the Fib number.

--NM
  • #4,571
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:27am Feb 24, 2010 9:27am
Quoting NightMoves
That is exactly what I was showing in this post:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4517
I used the 4 hour chart to draw the line with but everything was in order including the Fib number.

--NM
The probability indicated in the technical analysis is high, and yet, nothing is certain - looks like another retest of the levels mentioned...

Yesterdays move was 250+ pips, it could be that this is causing the pair to stall within 100pip range...
  • #4,572
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:33am Feb 24, 2010 9:33am
Well that's me out at break even. Trading can be really frustrating sometimes! It was looking like a great set up. I was over 60 pips up at one point. Maybe should have taken some pips off the table earlier.
  • #4,573
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:39am Feb 24, 2010 9:39am
Quoting Paulette
The probability indicated in the technical analysis is high, and yet, nothing is certain - looks like another retest of the levels mentioned...

Yesterdays move was 250+ pips, it could be that this is causing the pair to stall within 100pip range...
Your probably right, all the big moving pairs have stalled out, my CJ trade has stalled well. I may have to move my stop a little tighter...

--NM
  • #4,574
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:45am Feb 24, 2010 9:45am
Quoting NightMoves
Your probably right, all the big moving pairs have stalled out, my CJ trade has stalled well. I may have to move my stop a little tighter...

--NM
No matter how I get frustrated with stalling markets, when I look at my trade analysis and scorecard, I can see a huge improvement - few trades, higher success rate and less emotional trading: I draw out my trade on the chart, and wait, if it comes it comes, I know at least I make a 100pips per week with safe LOB setups and the longer term swings will come....

Oh my and now - GBPCAD is dropping us a nice candle, let see is she will conform to plan drawn
  • #4,575
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:45am Feb 24, 2010 9:45am
Quoting NightMoves
That is exactly what I was showing in this post:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4517
I used the 4 hour chart to draw the line with but everything was in order including the Fib number.

--NM
Aye. Interesting to see how things lined up.

Another skill I'm finding that needs to be developed is when to look at the forest and when to look at the trees.
  • #4,576
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:56am Feb 24, 2010 9:56am
USDCHF 4hr now setting up right on the trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #4,577
  • Feb 24, 2010 9:58am Feb 24, 2010 9:58am
Quoting PippyD
Aye. Interesting to see how things lined up.

Another skill I'm finding that needs to be developed is when to look at the forest and when to look at the trees.
Yes imo a trend line in itself is not enough, you have to have a confluence of things come together in the same area, RN, previous swing high/low, a previous breakout point, fib window not necessarily any specific fib number I mean if it lands on a fib number to the pip great but it does not have to, and anything else you can think of to act as S/R, so a number of things have to be there a RN by itself is not enough, a fib by itself is not enough...etc the more you get the better are the probabilities.

--NM
  • #4,578
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:02am Feb 24, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Paulette
The probability indicated in the technical analysis is high, and yet, nothing is certain - looks like another retest of the levels mentioned...

Yesterdays move was 250+ pips, it could be that this is causing the pair to stall within 100pip range...
Paulette brings up an interesting point. The price action up yesterday was a relatively strong, quick thrust. How should this sudden move be factored into the trade evaluation? Or should it?
  • #4,579
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:06am Feb 24, 2010 10:06am
Quoting dread33
USDCHF 4hr now setting up right on the trendline
I am a little concerned about taking longs on this pair right now, the last several retracements have been digging deeper into the trend and we came very close to the weekly trend line, I am thinking we might be headed for a trend collapse...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly trend line shot.png Size: 55 KB
  • #4,580
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:14am Feb 24, 2010 10:14am
Quoting PippyD
Paulette brings up an interesting point. The price action up yesterday was a relatively strong, quick thrust. How should this sudden move be factored into the trade evaluation? Or should it?

I have absolutely no clue - as you rightly said sometime you look at the forest and other times at the trees...

It is just an observation if a pair rockets one day, the next day it could be quite slack and trapped in the undergrowth so to speak...

For the benefit of analysis: I also looked at GBP/AUD, touching my inner trendline, hitting S/R level (not sure if it was a major or more minor level) but it worked better than GBP/CAD - retracements were not as deep, but then again yesterdays up was larger than GCAD.
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