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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,981
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:49am Feb 24, 2010 2:49am
Quoting antgal23
Hi Bundy

so the 38 fib acts as resisitance on the daily and weekly tfs?
The smart answer is to say " ...no.. , Whatever the proven level is" acts as support/resistance. Always make sure a level is proven valid first and forms a PPZ around it.

But in many cases the level will be 'chosen' because of a fib or big round number etc framed it that way. And doesn't have to be exact level to make you money. Allow for overshoots etc.

And never take it for granted that one Fib level will mean the others will work from that same drawn fib study either.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #55,982
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:50am Feb 24, 2010 2:50am
Quoting StoragePro
Quoting Ryanmcd
Money = emotion, work on not thinking about money and it will make it easier. What if that trades was $2,000 a pip you think you would do the same?
No.
Yes I would


Quoting StoragePro
I'm late to this...

In each of those professions, the ability to socially engineer an outcome is valued. (Even engineers). So people play all kinds of games to get an outcome they feel is advantageous to them.

So what are they going to do in the market? Apply the skill set they have - the one that has brought them success. And it will fail. It has to, because the only person you are working against is yourself. (How this is attempted in the market is fascinating)

So is it really that these people are doomed because of what they do? [u]Of...
indeed
  • #55,983
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:55am Feb 24, 2010 2:55am
Quoting Ezzy
Hi Chatzi

NZUS starting to look good!! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Heading to work will check it later, should have moved to be if it's broke hard.
  • #55,984
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:00am Feb 24, 2010 3:00am
Quoting supremeChaos
although definition #3 here ("the customary or normal circumstance.....") fits, the word rule sounds 'harsh.'
generalization would sound better.
yes, i believe u are an outlier ("exception to the rule"). Good for you!


this is the key for you triger --- u think differently (u are not part of the crowd).
.
I know that many from here say that you are like an encyclopedia,and you really are.

I know that I have to improve with my english skills, I'm not satisfied at all althought I speak other 2 foreign language(french and spanish) on which I'm worse

I would focus mastering only my english

all the best!
  • #55,985
  • Edited 6:47am Feb 24, 2010 3:09am | Edited 6:47am
Very nice break off a I6B.
SL moved to B/E.
Lets see where it takes us.

Steve.

Edit. SL hit @ B/E.
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"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
  • #55,986
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:15am Feb 24, 2010 3:15am
Quoting chatzi
Heading to work will check it later, should have moved to be if it's broke hard.
Took me in but no be yet, there is space for this to move though so I am sure it will get to first area of danger.
  • #55,987
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:17am Feb 24, 2010 3:17am
Quoting triger88990
I know that many from here say that you are like an encyclopedia,and you really are.
I know that I have to improve with my english skills...


we may need to master foreign languages when we get to travel in the future...
but for now, all we have to master & speak about is the language of price action
  • #55,988
  • Edited 4:14am Feb 24, 2010 4:03am | Edited 4:14am
Hi everybody,

How would you rate this 1 hour pinbar ? Reversal or high probability to get stuck in 139.5 area ?
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  • #55,989
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:09am Feb 24, 2010 4:09am
Quoting michal7
I watched lot of Jim's and Mike's videos but aren't they also mentioning extreme highs/lows and major swings? Doesn't extreme say something about overbought/oversold with a nice chance for at least some retrace if PA is confirming this?
They do, which is why I said 'not a reason to trade', as opposed to meaningless

The reason we take reversal bars at a swing low is because that's what they are, reversals. If price is going up, it doesnt make sense to take a bullish reversal bar - there is nothing to reverse! In this case, the strong PA to mark out this 'line in the sand' just wasnt there, that big rejection of a level and move in the other direction.. hence the reason I didnt see it as a reason for a trade per se.

Hopefully Mike or Jimroo will be able to add to this, they are the swing kings around here

-----

As for the overbought/oversold thing... well, this one is a bit of a pet peeve of mine. You see those terms thrown around alot in t/a literature, as if they were a real thing. But when you think about it, especially in a forex contect, they are pretty meaningless. Unless you know the fundamental value of something, how can you say that it is 'overbought' or 'oversold'.

The basic premise they operate on here is that if something goes down more quickly than it usually does, it must be oversold and therefore will reverse. That's nonsense. As long as people are selling it, its falling. The reversal PA (which are all pins, or variations thereof) at the low point is how we tell that we have run out of sellers.

The idea of 'what goes up must come down', and vice verse, has been responsible for a ton of indicators, dodgy systems... and empty accounts.


Quoting michal7
Ok, this is new for me. I'm not expecting orders to be there from 1999. But isn't it something that also big guys notice? Really strong area, with 3 nice bounces off of it, not broken in more than 13 years?
This one is a bit subtle. It's a bit more 'why' than 'how', so apologies if I start sounding like a raving madman

Firstly, and i know many here are averse to anything that isnt a bar on a chart so feel free to ignore, but the 'strong area' from 1999 is IMO an artificial level. These were all during the changeover period where the exchange rates of the ECU countries were fixed, and before the introduction of the actual euro. That's why I wouldnt put much stock in them

Anyways, moving on to chart based hijinks. To determine the strength of a level, you have to look at who the 'big guys' are, why they would be in the market right now, and how much of said market they each make up.

All the institutions are selling off euro. And they make up most of the volume. That's the trend we are seeing. Its one thats going to continue.

At a 'regular' ppz-type level, where there is recent history, you can reasonably expect a decent volume of orders stacked on either side of a PPZ - that's what makes the PPZ work (and, indeed, what makes it exist in the first place). In these 'regular' cases, price reacts because of what the market participants are actually doing, the positions they are actually taking right now.

Contrast this with a level from ten or so years ago. There arent going to be any orders sitting there for that long. The only way there is going to be a reaction is if new orders come into the market. And since the predominant trend is down - ie, the big institutions, funds and govs are selling off euros - we have to try and identify who might be taking a position against that trend.

I can only think of two groups - technical traders, and people that want to feed on them and use them to get acheap price on their short positions (ie, hedges and instos).

Any reaction you see is going to be dangerous in my eyes. If you wanted to get short euros in big volume, how would you do it? You could sell into a falling market, or wait for an area where chartists think there might be strength, and then let them bid into you... until you run out of suckers and the trend resumes. I know which I would do.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,990
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:12am Feb 24, 2010 4:12am
pop MACDRSI there is also nice DIV.
im long on cadjpy - the pin on 85.0 price.
Wellcome to the good life!
  • #55,991
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:16am Feb 24, 2010 4:16am
Quoting joelcf
They do, which is why I said 'not a reason to trade', as opposed to meaningless

The reason we take reversal bars at a swing low is because that's what they are, reversals. If price is going up, it doesnt make sense to take a bullish reversal bar - there is nothing to reverse! In this case, the strong PA to mark out this 'line in the sand' just wasnt there.. hence the reason I didnt see it as a reason for a trade per se.

Hopefully Mike or Jimroo will be able to add to this, they are the swing kings around here

-----

As...
Thank you for explanations Joel!
  • #55,992
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:18am Feb 24, 2010 4:18am
Quoting michal7
Thank you for explanations Joel!
No need

As you said, everyone's opinions are different. Posting questions and debating things is how we all get better... hopefully
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,993
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:20am Feb 24, 2010 4:20am
Quoting ts63
Hi everybody,

How would you rate this 1 hour pinbar ? Reversal or high probability to get stuck in 139.5 area ?
In my book is an A trade ,hope you fill the diference not an A+++ setup,

But A is enough for me to take it so you already know that I'm in

Others may have a different choice about it and is normal to be so,bc we are different human beings

hope you manage it properly

all the best!!
  • #55,994
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:24am Feb 24, 2010 4:24am
Quoting ts63
Hi everybody,

How would you rate this 1 hour pinbar ? Reversal or high probability to get stuck in 139.5 area ?
It's kinda like crossing the road - be aware of your surroundings.

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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,995
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:32am Feb 24, 2010 4:32am
Quoting joelcf
It's kinda like crossing the road - be aware of your surroundings.

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Stealing my friends line in your sig?
  • #55,996
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:39am Feb 24, 2010 4:39am
Quoting chatzi
Stealing my friends line in your sig?
lol, good to see someone with taste in movies.... we all need some Tuco wisdom in our lives

My profile pic from the pf is quite similar to yours.

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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,997
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:50am Feb 24, 2010 4:50am
Quoting joelcf
lol, good to see someone with taste in movies.... we all need some Tuco wisdom in our lives

My profile pic from the pf is quite similar to yours.

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LOL cool, amazing set of movies. You can see their influences in a lot of modern classics.
  • #55,998
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:31am Feb 24, 2010 5:31am
Hi,

could somebody advise me as to whether the last 4 hour candle on my EURJPY chart would consititute a Bearish Vertical Outside Vertical Bar? If so, would it have been a good strategy to sell on the pullback to the 23.6 Fib (see attached chart)

Obviously it looks like a good trade now, but I just wanted to check my understanding.

Thanks,

Mark
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  • #55,999
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:40am Feb 24, 2010 5:40am
Quoting MarkyBoy
Hi,

could somebody advise me as to whether the last 4 hour candle on my EURJPY chart would consititute a Bearish Vertical Outside Vertical Bar? If so, would it have been a good strategy to sell on the pullback to the 23.6 Fib (see attached chart)

Obviously it looks like a good trade now, but I just wanted to check my understanding.
Hey mark,

I assume you mean the one with the red arrow - if not, ignore the rest of this!

What we really want to see in a BEOB is for price to close near the bottom of the bar - at least in the bottom third. If you look at the bar in your chart, the open and close of the bar are really not that far apart, the close is in the top half of the bar, and the open-close range barely encompass the previous bar.

As it stands, this almost looks closer to pin than a beob. (not that anyone should try and trade it as such!)

Also, with most setups (including beob type bars), we like to see it validated before we enter a trade - so we will usually hold off until price breaks the low point of the BEOB. So, in this case, this trade wouldnt have been 'triggered' yet, if that makes sense?

Hopefully some others will chime in with their thoughts too.

Attached Image


(I've converted your file to a jpg and posted it for everyone else to comment on - if your chart program lets you, save as a gif, jpg or png so forexfactory will let it show up in the thread.)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #56,000
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:46am Feb 24, 2010 5:46am
Quoting chatzi
Stealing my friends line in your sig?
Clint did a little talking before he started shooting. That's why we liked him so much.

K.I.S.S.

"Dying ain't much of a livin' boy."
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