I hope people who have posted trade ideas the last few pages will not be offended by Ryan or Joel's bluntness. Please know that they are both very respected here, and have each contributed a lot of wisdom to the thread.
Thanks guys.
The thing is, they are trying to help you, so please learn from what they are saying. The honest thing is, major trends only change once in a blue moon, so if a pair is plummeting down or shooting up, why do you think the day you decide to look for trades happens to be the end of a trend that has lasted for months? It is so much easier to wait for retraces to fib/ppz/ema/etc. confluence levels and then take an obvious (<--- this is key) pin bar or BEOB than to take a counter(huge)trend trade just because it's the only formation (pinbar, outside bar, etc.) that shows up that day on the charts.
Of course, eventually trends do change, but I think if you'll look over your charts there is typically either a giant pinbar or engulfing bar, or, a period of consolidation followed by a breakout at the top or bottom of trends. It is worth missing a trade if a weak-sauce bar happens to signal the start of a new trend! It will retrace, and you can get in there and join in on the fun. 90% of small bars (or more) will not reverse the trend, so why fight it?!
Be patient, and you will be rewarded. This has been such a hard lesson for me, I hope this helps at least one person to make the decision to be ultra-picky now and save themself the trouble of losing over and over again getting hit by bullet trains.
/end rant
Cory
Thanks guys.
The thing is, they are trying to help you, so please learn from what they are saying. The honest thing is, major trends only change once in a blue moon, so if a pair is plummeting down or shooting up, why do you think the day you decide to look for trades happens to be the end of a trend that has lasted for months? It is so much easier to wait for retraces to fib/ppz/ema/etc. confluence levels and then take an obvious (<--- this is key) pin bar or BEOB than to take a counter(huge)trend trade just because it's the only formation (pinbar, outside bar, etc.) that shows up that day on the charts.
Of course, eventually trends do change, but I think if you'll look over your charts there is typically either a giant pinbar or engulfing bar, or, a period of consolidation followed by a breakout at the top or bottom of trends. It is worth missing a trade if a weak-sauce bar happens to signal the start of a new trend! It will retrace, and you can get in there and join in on the fun. 90% of small bars (or more) will not reverse the trend, so why fight it?!
Be patient, and you will be rewarded. This has been such a hard lesson for me, I hope this helps at least one person to make the decision to be ultra-picky now and save themself the trouble of losing over and over again getting hit by bullet trains.
/end rant
Cory