T.J.'s Trades

Long time lurker on James16, rare poster.

With the start of the new year, I decided I would start a journal to record all my trades. So I can keep track, and also open to any criticism.

I am being very pick this year, and found my first trade on Jan. 19th.

I shorted the GBPUSD, at the 50 fib mark, with a 5 AM CST BEOB.

I got in at 1.6381 (after spread), with an original TP1 at 1.6310. The lowest the pair got was 1.6312, just missing my TP1. I watched the price action form a near pin in the opposite direction for the next 4 hour bar, so I moved my stop loss up to 1.6375 where I was eventually stopped out for a 6 pip gain.

I re-entered my short on the GBPUSD, based upon the Daily Pinbar at the 50% Fib level. Stop loss above 1.65 at 1.6525, TP was tight at 1.6250, being I wanted in only on the break of 1.63 and got in at 1.6290.

Once again, I missed my original TP by 2 pips, the low was 1.6252, and then it bounced off this level back up close to my entry. I moved my stop loss up to break even and was then taken out for a break even trade.

I should have kept my stop loss above 1.63, and accept a small loss if it got there. If I had done this, I would have hit my first TP, before being stopped out.

Third trade of the year. Short on GBPJPY 4H, 50 Fib, 147.00 round number, with the new trend, Pin Bar, 5 AM CST (best time) bar.

The next bar formed as an inside bar, so I kept my trade in place. I was happy to stick with my original stop loss, original TP, and original order (short at 146.90).

I get out early at 146.60. I didn't put in a second order to run to 145 (and I should have of).

Chart...

January ended up as a postive month, though I did not hold the GBPUSD as I should have of, and it was not positive by much.

The first trade of February got off good.

NZDUSD. Large Daily BEOB, right at the round .7000 round number, and a close below.

Got in at .6975, TP1 was at .6925 (more zoomed out chart shows previous PPZ around .6900). Took off a small profit. Have a smaller amount, with a stop at 61.8% Fib of the Daily BEOB still alive with a TP of .6790 (about where the 365 EMA will be at).

This is my third trade in February (my 2nd is still in play, don't know the results)...

EURUSD, short off the 5 AM CST Bearish outside bar with RSI divergence. I took my profit at 1.3710. I expected a bounce off of 1.3710, so I did not put on a runner. This, in hindsight, was a mistake, though I would do the same again.

First loss of the year. Not a good trade, and due to it not breaking hard, I pulled my stop loss up to 50% of the BUOB, which saved me on taking a full bar loss.

The trade, with MACD diverence looked "B" level. Nice outside bar (not large enough though), with MACD diverenced, and I though good for a pop to my first TP of 1.6540.

I put an entry in at 1.6510, thinking if it did break over 1.6500 it would pop to 1.6540 first. Instead it got to about 1.6506, with slippage, this was enough to just get me into the trade, and then it crashed and burned.

Lessons learned...

#1) Need to be pickier.
#2) If you have a Daily outside bar compared to a previous holiday bar, make sure it is a GOOD SIZED bar.
#3) Slippage, gotta keep an eye out for it.

Okay, I took this trade. I saw a lot of people say it was not an A+ trade, so they were going to pass it. I did not see it as an A+ trade, but I saw it as a B+ trade, very likely to get to the first trouble area (1.0540).

I liked the size of the bar, I know it closed strong on late news, though I disregard the news and just read the chart. The location was not great, but it was off the 61.8 and 50 Fib levels of the most recent up move, and it closed above the round number of 1.0500.

I placed my order, and watched as it just stayed at the 1.0500 level the rest of the evening. When I woke up at 4:45 AM, I saw that I was about 7 pips in profit. The trade has not moved at all. I watched it for about 30 minutes as it set still.

This told me that the trade was stalling, and that the momentum that created the BUOB was weakening. The European session traders were not jumping on board during their prime hours, and with Friday looming I feared there would be profit taking on the USD.

So I closed with a 7 pip profit. Fridays can be tricky, with profit taking.

The trade reversed not much later and took the BUOB out.

I took the 4H trade short on the EURUSD, based on the 4H BEOB/Pin below the arrow on my chart.

The red line is the first problem area I spotted, and where I went to break even.

My trailing trade was eventually stopped out, but I gained a total of 45 pips.

Second loss of the year.

With the big round number at .7000 right below the daily pin bar (below down arrow), I wanted to make sure it broke this number cleanly.

I entered at .6975, with my first TP only at .6960 (first trouble area). I set my stop loss short at .7030, expecting a strong break of .7000.

The break was strong, the low on the chart showing .6959, but I did not hit my TP due to slippage.

The high of today was only .7022, but with slippage, I was taken out for a loss at .70304.

Lessons learned...

Slippage can be harmful if you keep your SL's too tight.


OTHER MISTAKES...

- Zoom out, overall trend was up, trading CT.
- Be more patient. Daily did not close below .7000.
- Watch for news releases, knowing it can increase the spread - Slippage.

EURUSD long, off 1.3650 support, Pin bar (5:00 AM CST strong bar time), hit 1st TP at 1.3725. Second half out at break even...

Nice Weekly Pin bar, followed by a Weekly inside pin shaped bar, off the 1.5 BRN, and 61.8% Fib retracement of the uptrend.

I took my first profit at the first trouble area of 1.5330.

The second half was stopped out at break even.

I took the NZDCAD Daily Pin bar, off the round number of .7000 above the arrow in the picture.

I hit my first trouble area at .7115. The trade turned around at this point, and stopped me out on the 2nd portion for a small gain.

GPBUSD daily IPB (Ghous nickname).

1st TP was at 1.5430, 2nd TP was at 1.5385. Both target prices hit.

The bar was not the best formation, and the trend for the week was flat, but the first touch of off 1.5500 gave me confidence to take this trade.

I took the USDCAD Daily Pin short, and hit my first profit at 1.0085.

The Weekly USDCAD had a BUOB, so I took profit quickly and did not set a runner. In hind sight this was incorrect, but if I had to do it over again, I would do the same thing. Take quick profit, wait to see if the Weekly BUOB has any power or not.

I took the AUDUSD I4B Daily bar on 5/11/2010. I only set a short side order, as to me the pair look to be trending down (and the recent USD strength).

I completely missed the PPZ around .8900/.8890. So I sent short at .9010 with a first TP of .8830.

If I had noticed this PPZ, I would have stayed out of the trade, as it hit .8887 and went back up.

I held out, putting the stop loss at the opposite end of the IB and was able to get out for a BE trade.

If I had held longer, I could have taken profit, but I felt lucky to get out at BE and knew that anything more than that, after missing the FTA AND being a Friday, would be just greed.

Hi tj,

Sorry, I am missing something here. You said you shorted at 0.9010 but shouldn't you short only after price has broken below the IB (that is normaly how IB is played, isn't it?)? The trigger price be somewhere in the region of 0.8930 (based on your chart which I estimated visually), wouldn't it?
Thanks.


CY

Hey Cy, great to have a guest here.

You are correct, I made a typo. I did NOT enter at 0.9010, I entered at 0.8910 (the low of the IB was around 0.8930 as you pointed out).

Good catch!

Thank you,

T.J.

Wow, been over three weeks since I took a trade. I haven't seen much I liked, or I over looked a set-up (happened a few times in those three weeks). I am rather P.O.'ed at myself for missing some strong moves (EURUSD and the other strong moves), but I know to never fall for this trap and start to revenge trade.

Well, I did catch a set-up I liked today. GBPUSD, 1H, Large Pin bar off the 1.4500 level.

I rarely look below the 4H, but I was waiting for some nice retrace and continuation plays, following Sunday's strong open (more missed opportunities).

I found what appeared to be a good play on the GBPUSD (my trade below). I entered at 1.4490, with a stop loss above the 1H pin bar at 1.4575, and a FTA at 1.4455. I kept a close eye on this trade, due to it being close to lunch time. When I saw the pair was flat following lunch, I figured there would be no afternoon spurt in volume, so I closed with a 20 Pip profit at 1.4470. The trade did finally hit my FTA, so I closed early, but my plan was to close if after lunch price didn't pop one way or the other.

I took a short on the EURUSD Dailiy BEOB below the red arrow on my chart.

I missed a 8 Hour Pin bar earlier in the day off the 1.2450 area, and this would have been a better entry. I gotta get to bed earlier so I can think better at 4:45 AM in the morning.

I did catch the daily trade. Not A+, as it wasn't off the 1.2500 area, and a lot of traffic. But I believed with the recent bad news for the Euro, and the good retracement, the trade was worth a quick profit.

I got out with a small profit at 1.2255.

My first trade in a month, wow! Been a slow summer for me, and I missed a few good set-ups on the daily over the last month.

I am lucky I even got in this trade, I remembered back to Dan Gilbert saying that the IB on BRN can be very reliable but VERY tough to predict. I almost only set an order to short this trade off the 61.8 Fib. I then realized I should set and order to play both directions.

I woke up to find I was into profit, but my first TP was not hit. I didn't want to leave too much risk on the table and had to run to the gym. So I moved my stop loss up to 5 pips of profit where it was taken out.

My first TP has still not been hit, but it looks possible as I type this.

I am making money this year for the first time, my patience has really improved. But I have a lot of work to still do, A LOT of work.