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  • #10,181
  • Feb 23, 2010 9:16am Feb 23, 2010 9:16am
[quote=hcristea;3489368]I think you should see the angles in relation to each other not an absolute value. This way they keep the shallow/steep attributes no matter how you change the chart scale.

Now you are talking sense - common sense. Good man!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,182
  • Edited 10:50am Feb 23, 2010 9:31am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting 30XTCi
Here is an example of what Gann was talking about. On this EURUSD downtrend, price passes thru the 270 degree on the 27th day. Through 450 degrees on the 45th day and 540 degrees on the 54th day.
Note also all these candles can be connected with a single line.
The magnitude is not important.

Roy
Here is an example of what Gann was talking about. On this EURUSD downtrend, price passes thru the 270 degree on the 27th day. Through 450 degrees on the 45th day and 540 degrees on the 54th day.
Note also all these candles can be connected with a single line.
The magnitude is not important.

Not wanting to pick a fight Roy but:

Price also passed through 270 degrees on days 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 35 & 37.

Price also passed through 450 degrees on days 44, 45, 46, 47 & 48

Price also passed through 540 degrees on days 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 57 & 58

Gann made a lot of interesting observations and kept most to himself or the $multi-millionaires who he sold it to. The stuff he put in the public domain is very subjective and open to challenge and interpretation.

I also wasted too much time and money on Gann stuff and 100% agree with you and Soso that while it is not an entire waste of time, the return is very, very low.

I sent you an email on Harmonic and Sinusoidal Motion – hope you enjoy it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,183
  • Feb 23, 2010 9:36am Feb 23, 2010 9:36am
Quoting igmal
salve!on E/J boss-down trend,worker up to 124.49,finds R(S till 1 feb)retested this level and 20 MA.i see also a TL what from S becomes R. your comments are lessons to learn for me.
Correct. PRICE hit resistance and was rejected. PRICE is now going down to test support at psycho 121.00
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,184
  • Feb 23, 2010 9:39am Feb 23, 2010 9:39am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I think you can make too much of these figures - they are not precise IMO, but simply say that the steeper the rise (or fall) of prices in a trend the more unstable it is likely to be and the more likely you will get a reverse (short-term in the case of CT, and longer-term in the case WT changes).

Obviously the 45' notion is exactly midway - a clear slope upwards/downwards from the left of the chart to the right....
Eyeballing is all you need

More words of wisdom - are you Paul McCartney in disguise?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,185
  • Feb 23, 2010 9:53am Feb 23, 2010 9:53am
Quoting mstandifer
Strat,
Can we get your follow-up comments on the USDCHF quiz?
-m
It was not meant to be a quiz just an observation to see how readers would react.

This, and its alter ego are going through an interesting period and I was wanting to see what people would do with it.

Apart from you, the reaction I got was well, no reaction.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,186
  • Feb 23, 2010 10:18am Feb 23, 2010 10:18am
JPY PAIRS

I’ll stick my neck out here, with an observation on JPY pairs.

At the close of yesterday’s bar, the following pairs were positioned for a move down:

AUDJPY
AUDUSD
CADJPY
CHFJPY
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
USDJPY

These are all the JPY pairs I follow.

As has happened many times before, and you can see this in my previous posts, when all the JPY pairs line up together, it is a sign for ATM trades. This has always worked for me in the past and I can’t remember the time when it didn’t work.

Most of the times when this happens, it is usually a quick ATM trade down to support which is never too far away. These are the times and trades (ATM) when I do use TP targets.

I have been caught out many times when these ATM trades have continued into mucho pip swing trades so now I leave a portion of my positions open at support. Of course, you can always get back in the trade but at increased risk.

So, watch out for JPY pairs being in unison at SR then look for PA and trade the pair(s) you have the MM and risk tolerance for. Be careful if you do trade more than one pair because you have all your eggs in one basket – it's the Three Musketeers trade – all for one and one for all!

Now, having stated this, watch the big boys make me look an idiot the next time it happens!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,187
  • Feb 23, 2010 10:26am Feb 23, 2010 10:26am
Quoting 30XTCi
hcristea, if you are interested in Gann stuff, you can go to Forums and do a thread search for 'Gann take profit levels', it's just a few lines of code that works out the square root of price. Like Soso said, you can spend a lot of time working on theories about Gann for not much return. Better off to stick with what Strat is teaching here and maybe mess with other things in your spare time.
One thing I have noticed over the years is this time/price squaring always happens at major turning points.

HTH Roy
Thanks for the info, i didnt know about 'Gann take profit levels'.

I have no intention on going deeper into Gann theories. I've been around and observing Soso spending 2+ years in Gann theories and then reaching the conclusion that is is a waste of time (his words!) Now I'm 100% Strat's PASR teachings.
  • #10,188
  • Feb 23, 2010 10:27am Feb 23, 2010 10:27am
My question is why on earth is the jpy getting bid on over the dollar?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,189
  • Edited 1:12pm Feb 23, 2010 1:06pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting erikte279
My question is why on earth is the jpy getting bid on over the dollar?
Japanese are savers and get horrible rates of return in Japan because of low rates. Thats why they have those PRDC notes which are investments in overseas currencies.
PRDC notes are massive massive funds where banks take Japanese savers money and invest them in currencies that have higher interest rates and therefore a higher rate of return. This is a big flow of money that does affect FX. The bonds have names, there was a new issuance this week of bonds called Toshin. Most of this money now is going to emerging markets and places with higher yields than Europe and the USA.

Today we had terrible US consumer confidence numbers. This hit the short end bond yields for the US and then Europe hard. (short end are the shorter time frame bonds).
Therefore there is even less yield for Japanese funds in the USD and European currencies and so money flows out of those currencies and back into the yen.
Add in some good old risk aversion and they rolled over.

BUT ... the signals were there in the charts ...
  • #10,190
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:22pm Feb 23, 2010 1:22pm
I saw the signal I just chose to disregard it because of the bad news for japan (automakers-japans economy export based, BOJ recent statement). Also the good news that has been coming out of the u.s., I never thought that a "confidence report" would have such an effect on the markets its almost rediculous in my opinion. I didnt know johnnys "confidence" had such an effect on the market it would seems johnnys "bottom line" would.


What happens when johnny has a stomach ache or a bad day are they going to start shorting the dollar for that as welL? ROLF
Annoying Precision
  • #10,191
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:35pm Feb 23, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting erikte279
I saw the signal I just chose to disregard it because of the bad news for japan (automakers-japans economy export based, BOJ recent statement). Also the good news that has been coming out of the u.s., I never thought that a "confidence report" would have such an effect on the markets its almost rediculous in my opinion. I didnt know johnnys "confidence" had such an effect on the market it would seems johnnys "bottom line" would.


What happens when johnny has a stomach ache or a bad day are they going to start shorting the dollar for that...
Yes the bond market affects the flow of money, if you have a chart for it USDJPY is correlated with US 10yr treasuries.
  • #10,192
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:39pm Feb 23, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting erikte279
I saw the signal I just chose to disregard it because of the bad news for japan (automakers-japans economy export based, BOJ recent statement). Also the good news that has been coming out of the u.s., I never thought that a "confidence report" would have such an effect on the markets its almost rediculous in my opinion. I didnt know johnnys "confidence" had such an effect on the market it would seems johnnys "bottom line" would.


What happens when johnny has a stomach ache or a bad day are they going to start shorting the dollar for...
They are just using that news noise as an excuse. Watch what the US Fed does. Those psychos have been trying to get things right with their balance sheet. Several of their programs have or are in the process of expiring. The result: less liquidity = lower stock market. The only fundamentals I follow is the Fed and treasury's machinations. Don't fight the Fed.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,193
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:44pm Feb 23, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting elitejets
Yes the bond market affects the flow of money, if you have a chart for it USDJPY is correlated with US 10yr treasuries.
Yes. A big scare into 10 and 30 year treasuries today. Hmm . . . a wise man I know once said "the stock market is a side show watch the treasury market" "it must be saved at all costs"
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,194
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:46pm Feb 23, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Flem26
Yes. A big scare into 10 and 30 year treasuries today. Hmm . . . a wise man I know once said "the stock market is a side show watch the treasury market" "it must be saved at all costs"
I don't disagree. The bond market is definately way BIGGER than the stock market. They say the bond traders are the smartest guys in the room.
We just have to look for their footprints ...
  • #10,195
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:55pm Feb 23, 2010 1:55pm
So how is a selloff in the the usd/jpy/ bad consumer confidence report and the bond market intertwined?

Quoting elitejets
I don't disagree. The bond market is definately way BIGGER than the stock market. They say the bond traders are the smartest guys in the room.
We just have to look for their footprints ...
Annoying Precision
  • #10,196
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:05pm Feb 23, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting erikte279
So how is a selloff in the the usd/jpy/ bad consumer confidence report and the bond market intertwined?
The yield (% return) on the short dated bonds fell off hard today. If there is less return on these European and US bonds then there is less incentive for Japanese banks to sell yen and invest in the USD or European currencies. Hence they fall vs the yen.

As was pointed out, there is a lot of Govt trickery in this market. The US sold 44bln in 2r notes today after this drop.
  • #10,197
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:14pm Feb 23, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting elitejets
I don't disagree. The bond market is definately way BIGGER than the stock market. They say the bond traders are the smartest guys in the room.
We just have to look for their footprints ...
Exactly and speaking of footprints . . . a shot of prices on the daily 10 year. This thing respects s/r just like everything else . . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10_year_daily.gif Size: 20 KB
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,198
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:14pm Feb 23, 2010 2:14pm
This makes sense. thanks
Annoying Precision
  • #10,199
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:42pm Feb 23, 2010 2:42pm
I can't remember whether I mentioned it in my EW Smoke & Mirrors post but EURUSD is at Critical Fib levels.

As I have said many times, you can pull Fibs to tell any story you want but on the Worker I have pulled them on the long Impulse Wave 3 and on the Boss, the complete up move after the Chinese Olympics sell off.

There are several opinions (what is new in trading?) as to what is the critical level in Fibonacci.

There are those who do a casual study of Fibs and call 61.8% the critical level while there are those who specialise in Fibs and build a fortune trading them such as the Godfather of Fibs, Larry Pesavento, who says 76.8% is the critical level.

I don't care who or which is wrong or right, I just WATCH what PRICE does at these levels.

So this is me watching, watching, watching and watching - hopefully she will wake from her slumber and show us something - anything!

You should also note that her alter ego is at FE levels.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd worker fibs.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd boss fibs.gif Size: 26 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,200
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:54pm Feb 23, 2010 2:54pm
USDCHF Worker is at or near 50% retrace and the Boss at 38.2% retrace.

Meanwhile we watch and wait!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf worker fibs.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf boss fibs.gif Size: 38 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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