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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,661
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:54am Feb 22, 2010 6:54am
Quoting nickypon
Yes. I also took a full bar loss on Fridays usdcad. Lost 3 % of my account. Looking back it was at a great level but overhead resistance was close.
Quoting raczekfx
Why full bar? That makes no sense when you look at charts below, unless it was a mistake on your part. I still make them.
One thing to remember (imho) from this experience is:
When you play daily bars against weekly bars.. weekly 'almost' always wins.
I should add to THE PIP.
Hey nickypon,

I'm in no way trying to say that mark didn't give you a good analysis. But I would show you my way, which might help you in another way.

ACCORDING TO JAMES16'S PRINCIPALS, WHICH THIS THREAD IS BASED ON:

We want bullish outside bars at swing lows with concluence. If you decide to take it anyways, you must take into consideration that this is less than an "A" trade, and the management must be accordingly.
Your desicion was taking this bar, which is completely fine.

ACCORDING TO JAMES16, THIS BAR DID EXACTLY WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO DO. PERIOD. THIS BAR DID NOT FAIL. 95% OF THE TIME THESE BARS WILL GO WHERE THEY SUPPOSED TO GO, WHICH IS THE FIRST TROUBLE AREA. "THE REST IS IN THE HANDS OF THE MARKET", WHICH WOULD BE A GAMBLE.

There are many other ways to trade and analyze this. But I think this is the simplest you would ever find. THIS IS WHAT JAMES16 IS TEACHING US.

Good luck
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  • #55,662
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:55am Feb 22, 2010 6:55am
Everyone should really print this post in bold letters, hook it above their monitor, and read it at least once a week.

I know I will.

Ben

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Quoting james16
i just always want people to know that i realise its hard. i lost almost 300 thousand dollars (somewhere in that range) in 8 years from around 1984 to 1993. There IS a reason why stats show a 95 percent failure rate in this business.

I came to the conclusion long ago that its not due to the inability to find a method that works. Its mainly a total mental disconnect with reality. Common sense just disappears. The fact that a person can learn this business without risking a dime makes that stat even more crazy.

The single biggest...
  • #55,663
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:23am Feb 22, 2010 7:23am
Quoting benji533
Everyone should really print this post in bold letters, hook it above their monitor, and read it at least once a week.

I know I will.

Ben

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The post is a classic example of why most just dont get it. I have been a firm believer for a long time that far to many people concentrate on the overleveraged under capitalised 'gotta build this to a million' setup and it is a fundamental reason why so many people fail.

It is true that getting a large account will in most ways make a huge shift in mentality and turn people into more accountable traders, however 1 needs to understand there way of trading also. This is where I believe most people need to spend time trading a small account alongside a demo account in the range of funds that would compel a trader to be more picky. I have taken that approach in the past few months with a demo account in the range of $50k that is traded alongside my live account that is a small fraction. The results have been more progressive, far less stressful and have allowed me a far 'greater confidence' in what I am doing.

Traders who just take risk with small accounts or dont treat that small capital like gold will seldom succeed in the long run. There approach is usually what helps the statistics stay so wide. While they may have some success, while they may do the improbable and build there account 10fold they are unable to sustain long term growth at those rates. Compounding and Longevity will give you an account that is worth smiling about and in the process, over years and years of consistant trading you will build the confidence that will allow you to progress to a larger account that will in time completely shadow those who claim 400% returns.

As Jim and many have said, once you see that pip value increase your desire to be more picky will also increase. You may reach that point where suddenly the small move in a market will net you far more than you could have imagined and it covers what you need for a month and leaves some to build.

I call it the overflow effect, the point that you reach, especially in life and work, that what you need and want is taken care of with some left over. That some left over is the overflow, it is the addition to compounding and allows some room to breath and overtime allows for distribution into other avenues. For everyone it is different but you will find that once you get there on a regular basis it will feel like the world has been lifted.

It is a great post and I know there are many others throughout this thread.

Razor
  • #55,664
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:26am Feb 22, 2010 7:26am
Quoting raczekfx
Why full bar? That makes no sense when you look at charts below, unless it was a mistake on your part. I still make them.
One thing to remember (imho) from this experience is:
When you play daily bars against weekly bars.. weekly 'almost' always wins.
I should add to THE PIP.
Very interesting observation, Rac, THANK YOU for sharing it!

Could you hint, please, why you chose that specific level for your touch trade? I.e. why 1.0526?
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #55,665
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:53am Feb 22, 2010 7:53am
Quoting TiaForex
James doesn't go beyond this thread much, but he did recently for a lone post and I thought it was so good that I wanted to see it posted here. I am sure he won't mind (and if you do Jim, I'll delete it). It's just too too god to waste.

From James16:

my experience over the last 30 years is that all this "stuff" spoken about by so many well meaning smart people is just mental masturbation.

People think that the real keys to succes in this business are somehow shrouded behind a mystical curtain only obtainable by those with 140 iq's...
That was excellent thanks Tia. I have a question though about number 4, about small accounts never grow to large accounts, even when treating it like a business.

This has been a point of conflict for me and hearing this make me think that it may be better to demo for a few years whle saving as much as possible rather than the 3 months thing. I suppose its how we define a large account, I know this is subjective for different people and I am assuming that we will be trading while still working a day job (daily/weekly). Are we talking 10k, 50k or 100k or 250k? To save 50k and above is going to take quite a while for a lot of people and might never be achevable for some. So are we saying they should forget trading?

It would be encouraging to hear from some folks on how they started and were they are now and how long it took, regarding account sizes. Not exact figures just some idea.

Chatzi
  • #55,666
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:57am Feb 22, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Forex007
Very interesting observation, Rac, THANK YOU for sharing it!

Could you hint, please, why you chose that specific level for your touch trade? I.e. why 1.0526?
I think everything was in his post 007, it was a break of the weekly lows and retrace to test the lows as resitance, which you can play a touch trade sell with tight stop. Agressive and not for anyone that hasnt gone through the demo process.
  • #55,667
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:00am Feb 22, 2010 8:00am
Quoting benji533
Everyone should really print this post in bold letters, hook it above their monitor, and read it at least once a week.

I know I will.

Ben

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I will start my day with it and end it with rants video...I know how badly these truths are needed to be drilled in my psyche.

Punter
  • #55,668
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:17am Feb 22, 2010 8:17am
Quoting chatzi
That was excellent thanks Tia....
It's James16's statement and I'll leave him to answer it. He'll do a better job than me.

All I'll say is that I think the general meaning is that people get things ass backwards. they focus on making money rather than learning to trade. Believe me, if you spent a couple of years getting so good at this that you could return a good percentage rate consistently a month, then there literally is no upside to the amount of money you could make. Even if those two years were spent entirely on demo. People don't tend to focus on the big picture because often they feel like they need money now.

There are so many more options available when consistent success is reached, not least because you will have a proven documented track record.

And to answer your question, I have seen people go from small accounts to life changing sums. But they didn't do it by trying to double every month.

The focus should always be on improving your trading. Good bars, good locations, make the next trade a good one, and above all, not losing money. I really believe that everything else should just be put to one side at the start of the learning curve. It somehow ends up falling into place later anyway.
  • #55,669
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:17am Feb 22, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Prof Hunter
Jim!
Curious, how do You handle this kind of situation.
Would You sell the GREEN bar (arrow) low break?
Or not, because...
THX, PH
Quoting jarroo
Yes sir. I'm in on this one . . . looking for the 1.7000 as the 1st target.

Hey PH, I got some PMs on this one so I'll answer them here.

The 2 Day PB on the Usd/Chf is of high quality to me. . . is it an A+ setup ? . . no. The traffic or lack of space was needed to quailfy as an A+.

My entry is 1.0740, stop loss is at 1.0835 (purple line) I have an alert set at the 1.0800 (in green at the Highs).
I may kill the trade at this level (1.0800) if a strong rejection does not ocurr.
I may also kill the trade right now because the momentum of the break is not to my liking.
I also may take off half at the current level to reduce my risk and let the trade play out at the current stop loss placement.

Yes, I am still long the on this pair from the Weekly PB at the 1.0300 level. Its nice have two brokers to work with.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #55,670
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:18am Feb 22, 2010 8:18am
Quoting chatzi
That was excellent thanks Tia....
A large account depends upon your country, living standards and your trading method.

But simply saying:

When you can live off with 1-3 trades a month while risking less then 1% of your account and all those 1-3 trades hit your BE after hitting the first trouble area (30-70 pips).

You have a Large account.
.
  • #55,671
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:19am Feb 22, 2010 8:19am
Quoting chatzi
I think everything was in his post 007, it was a break of the weekly lows and retrace to test the lows as resitance, which you can play a touch trade sell with tight stop. Agressive and not for anyone that hasnt gone through the demo process.
That's what we see in hindsight, but I think Rac chose that level before price reached that level. There were two W1 lows there, but for touch trade you need to decide the EXACT level to place your order at.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #55,672
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:51am Feb 22, 2010 8:51am
Quoting TiaForex
You're not alone berti. It's so common. I have gone through and still go through the same stuff. You look at a chart, agonise over taking something, then four days later when it works out you think "man that was obvious how could I miss that". Mike still goes through it too.

It's partly because when we look over our historical charts we see both the before and after part of the setup. We see the pinbar at the peak of the mountain with the steep slope on either side. Looks perfect. Then we see a setup forming and there is only one side of the...
Great post Aaron.

And Yes bertie123, seeing setups after the fact is just part of the learning curve that we all go through and the Tia-man has just posted some great ways to learn through this phase.

The key here is keep going, your on the right path.


Aaron I love your signature you have from James16. It was definetely an "Ah-Ha" moment for me.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #55,673
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:54am Feb 22, 2010 8:54am
Quoting jarroo

Yes, I am still long the on this pair from the Weekly PB at the 1.0300 level. Its nice have two brokers to work with.
This is just beutiful piece of art jarroo.

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  • #55,674
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:55am Feb 22, 2010 8:55am
You rock today Aaron!
  • #55,675
  • Feb 22, 2010 9:02am Feb 22, 2010 9:02am
Quoting benji533
This is just beautiful piece of art jarroo.

What also made it so pretty was that it was so easy once it broke. I still have the 2nd half position riding. Sure it would have been nice to have the whole position riding but that is not how I roll . . yet. The A+ setups sure make doing that a lot easier.

It did hit my long term target of 1.0900 so I'm managing it tighter.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #55,676
  • Feb 22, 2010 9:14am Feb 22, 2010 9:14am
Quoting TiaForex
It's James16's statement and I'll leave him to answer it. He'll do a better job than me.

All I'll say is that I think the general meaning is that people get things ass backwards. they focus on making money rather than learning to trade. Believe me, if you spent a couple of years getting so good at this that you could return a good percentage rate consistently a month, then there literally is no upside to the amount of money you could make. Even if those two years were spent entirely on demo. People don't tend to focus on the big picture because...
Excellent advice Aaron, I agree with you on that. The majorrity (including me) want to get to live trading quickly as possible, but if you think about it, you could spend a year breakeven or losing because you went to early. When you have a year of consistent great results demo or tiny account then you can have confidence to trade live with the chunk you have saved in the meantime.

Regards

Mark
  • #55,677
  • Edited 9:36am Feb 22, 2010 9:21am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting jarroo
My entry is 1.0740, stop loss is at 1.0835 (purple line)
I may also kill the trade right now because the momentum of the break is not to my liking.
I also may take off half at the current level to reduce my risk and let the trade play out at the current stop loss placement.
Thought that, just was curious. After the gap, I did not like the PA, wanted a break under that, so I am not in. (Lucky?)
Thank You for Your kind answer, Sir!
  • #55,678
  • Feb 22, 2010 9:29am Feb 22, 2010 9:29am
Quoting Prof Hunter
Thought that, just was curious. After the gap, I did not like the PA, wanted a break under that, so I am not in. (Lucky.)
Thank You for Your kind answer, Sir!
Counter trend trades are tough. They better be close to A++ to really be effective. PA setups with the trend are the best way to go i.e. retracement levels with the trend, etc. My target of 1.0700 is reasonsble and may be a good level for some bullish PA to go long.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #55,679
  • Feb 22, 2010 9:34am Feb 22, 2010 9:34am
Quoting jarroo
Counter trend trades are tough. They better be close to A++ to really be effective. PA setups with the trend are the best way to go i.e. retracement levels with the trend, etc. My target of 1.0700 is reasonsble and may be a good level for some bullish PA to go long.
Agree 100%
Looks You copied the levels from My chart!
Or are they on EVERY chart?Hmm...
Nice to have You here!
  • #55,680
  • Feb 22, 2010 9:59am Feb 22, 2010 9:59am
hi everybody
i have a question about TBLHC (even 3 bars here) on GU. I've never used such formations before and want to start testing them.
What you think, is it good to open long on break of this formation, in this particular place?
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