james16 Chart Thread | Page 2783 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,641
  • Feb 22, 2010 1:52am Feb 22, 2010 1:52am
[quote=daveoz001;3485859]
Quoting Cherry


Hey Cherry
Looks like we have a few things in common,
1. Just starting here
2. Go Markets
3. I gather you live in Brisbane or at least in Queensland somewhere.......I'm on the Gold Coast
Dave.
Hi Dave,

Yes, nth. side Brisbane. Just started with a demo on Gomarket but it has micro and great spreads, when I went with Alpari there was no Aus broker offering this.

I know 2 top traders both named Dave so you'll do well

I've been following here quietly for some time, have lots of failed short term methods behind me and for many reasons are determined to make this work. A great bunch here to help!

Cherry
  • #55,642
  • Edited 2:45am Feb 22, 2010 1:55am | Edited 2:45am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Joel,

How do they calculate this dollar index.
Its a continuously calculated weighted geometric mean index against a basket of euros, yen, pounds, francs, CAD and the Krona. Not sure how that one snuck in there, probably an Ikea conspiracy.

So, basically, take the USD rate vs each currency, weight it by the appropriate amount (which you should be able to google), multiply their product by the base (the value of the dollar at the end of the BW system, 50.1ish I think) and you are good.

The weighted geometric mean part is a bit tricky. For those who had social lives and/or girlfriends during college, you need to raise each cross rate by 1/weighting (so, for euro, that would be 1/0.58 or whatever the actual percentage is), then multiply them all together by 50.14

I dont remember the exact weightings, but its about 58% euro, 14% yen, 12% pounds, 9% canada and then pretty equally split between francs and krona.

...
Now, I know all of that is super interesting... but for the tl;dr crowd:
a) its almost an inverse of the euro, since it is 58% weighted by it, with a bit of risk aversion thrown in
b) forex leads the usdx, not vice versa
c) it has a *very* low weighting with regard to commodity currencies (no AUD, no ZAR, very low CAD)
d) since it is composed of a basket of things, you arent trading the instrument itself, you are trading the basket of currencies.. so ordinary patterns based on order flow dont really work the same way.

The last point is pretty subtle, but IMO pretty crucial.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,643
  • Feb 22, 2010 2:21am Feb 22, 2010 2:21am
Quoting raczekfx
Why full bar? That makes no sense when you look at charts below, unless it was a mistake on your part. I still make them.
One thing to remember (imho) from this experience is:
When you play daily bars against weekly bars.. weekly 'almost' always wins.
I should add to THE PIP.
Thanks for the analysis, it was very usefull. I had a ppz line drawn on my chart for the first target area which price didn't quite reach( only by a few pips, I might add. Hence, I didn't move my stop to break even. I think I should start drawing zones like you do on your chart but on this trade it would have meant moving the stop to break even as soon as it broke. In hindsight it was probably not wise to even take the trade but quite a few on the thread did!
  • #55,644
  • Feb 22, 2010 2:28am Feb 22, 2010 2:28am
Quoting joelcf
Its a continuously calculated weighted geometric mean index against a basket of euros, yen, pounds, francs, CAD and the Krona. Not sure how that one snuck in there, probably an Ikea conspiracy.

So, basically, take the USD rate vs each currency, weight it by the appropriate amount (which you should be able to google), multiply their product by the base (the value of the dollar at the end of the BW system, 50.1ish I think) and you are good.

The weighted geometric mean part is a bit tricky. For those who had social lives and/or girlfriends...
Hmmm in this case we could take some hints from it about our usual instruments. Will do some R&D and see if it could make some sense. Thanks.

Don't know about Weighted Geometric Mean.

Although I know Weighted Average.

"When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk."

Damn i listened this line in this "BANG BANG" song several times. But did't thought in this way.

Makes so much sense, about public forums is't it??
.
  • #55,645
  • Feb 22, 2010 2:49am Feb 22, 2010 2:49am
Quoting joelcf

b) forex leads the usdx, not vice versa

d) since it is composed of a basket of things, you arent trading the instrument itself, you are trading the basket of currencies.. so ordinary patterns based on order flow dont really work the same way.
.
So I'll save my time.

Thank Jeol.
.
  • #55,646
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:02am Feb 22, 2010 3:02am
Quoting nasir.khan
Seems like the TL is about to break.

There is an IB and Haiuuuuoojjj Div.

Let see.
.
Hi Nasir

AJ starting to look good!! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #55,647
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:11am Feb 22, 2010 3:11am
Quoting Ezzy
Hi Nasir

AJ starting to look good!! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Yep

Hope it breaks the Trend Line.

But Won't be surprised if it retraces back to 82.50.
.
  • #55,648
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:24am Feb 22, 2010 3:24am
Quoting triger88990
Here is the eurusd chart:
4h chart

This patterns I see them repeat over and over on all time frame,and they work like the usual patterns,which we are familiar with it, like PB BEOB BUOB.....

First we have a big move up/down ( in our case is up) and after that price make a pause, building up the congestion area where after a period of time will appear a imbalance between buyers and sellers.

The imbalance between buyers will appear after she will make a false break in the direction of the big move,which is up

The entry whould be on the break...
greetings everyone,
although this is my first post i have been following this thread for about 2 years and demo trading while saving up for live gig.
sincere thanks to Jim, seeking light, mbqb11 and all those that have tirelessly contributed to this thread.
i have gone live last month and its really working so far, i might have to cut down on overtrading though, but so far so good.

@ Trigger88990;
could u elucidate on the set up u described, i have been trading it - both live and demo - and i even made a few chunk on the EU pair u posted but maybe further discussion from you could help me get a better definition to what i have been doing.

thanks.
Nustra.
  • #55,649
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:43am Feb 22, 2010 3:43am
Quoting Nustra
greetings everyone,
@ Trigger88990;
could u elucidate on the set up u described, i have been trading it - both live and demo - and i even made a few chunk on the EU pair u posted but maybe further discussion from you could help me get a better definition to what i have been doing.
thanks.
Nustra.
definitely I would help you,just let me know which part you are confuse about it, or what you haven't understand

I'll look further for your post

all the best!
  • #55,650
  • Feb 22, 2010 5:20am Feb 22, 2010 5:20am
Does anybody have a Decent 4H BUOB in UCad??
.
  • #55,651
  • Feb 22, 2010 5:24am Feb 22, 2010 5:24am
Quoting nasir.khan
Does anybody have a Decent 4H BUOB in UCad??
.
A couple of bars back.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #55,652
  • Edited 6:14am Feb 22, 2010 5:38am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Ezzy
A couple of bars back.
Here it is i found it.

Could be a nice run to upper Blue line.

If crosses the first blue line.

EDIT: Came back to my Fxpro and checked the Daily. The daily bar is so frightening big...., so i will not take it.
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USDCAD, H4_20100222_123454.jpg Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #55,653
  • Feb 22, 2010 5:56am Feb 22, 2010 5:56am
Quoting nasir.khan
Seems like the TL is about to break.

There is an IB and Haiuuuuoojjj Div.

Let see.
.
So the TL is pretty much gone.

See every time market bounced on the TL the reaction became Weaker and weaker.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #55,654
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:15am Feb 22, 2010 6:15am
Hi all

As a J16 person who was derailed but now back on track, I would just like to ask if some of you guys have problems spotting the setups in real-time? I find I am seeing a lot of setups after the event(easy, I know) but am just not seeing them develop in real time - has anyone else had this problem how do you overcome this hurdle?

thanks guys

berti
PA is where its at!!
  • #55,655
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:21am Feb 22, 2010 6:21am
Quoting bertie123
Hi all

As a J16 person who was derailed but now back on track, I would just like to ask if some of you guys have problems spotting the setups in real-time? I find I am seeing a lot of setups after the event(easy, I know) but am just not seeing them develop in real time - has anyone else had this problem how do you overcome this hurdle?

thanks guys

berti
I am the same, as you, derailed and come back to the good stuff. Regarding the setup spotting, im not sure what you mean, you should only be looking for them after they have formed or a few mins before the bar closes, rather then while it is forming. If I have misunderstood I apologise.

Chatzi
  • #55,656
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:24am Feb 22, 2010 6:24am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
huh????

I think you mean that the formation of the bars would make a trade possible? I would say no, unless you just want to catch a 20-40 pip run before a trouble area.... I mean I suppose you could go long, but is that really the path of least resistance right now?
I was just trying to use GbpUsd as an example of what I was trying to get across. I know its not a very good setup and would not be looking to go long.


Quoting Dan Gilbert
I was zeroing on lower timeframes for more clues for a while, but I have now found that sometimes defeats the purpose of trading a daily/weekly bar... (in other words, why take a long-term stress free trade and make it a high-maintenance, intra-day trade?)

the previous week I barely had any time spent on the charts, and both my trades did just fine without me checking on them every 30 minutes (USDJPY weekly IB straddling 90.00, and the 4hr flag pattern breakout on GBPUSD). Really you should just have a plan, and stick to it. You don't need to move your stops to B/E right away if you don't want to. You don't need to freak out about a full bar loss if that full bar is 2% of your account.... and IF a full bar loss of 2% is more than you can stomach, try risking 1% per trade... or LESS....

I have been kind of realizing lately that less is more. All I needed was a vacation of not checking my charts for a few days, only to log into my account and see two winning trades running simultaneously to realize I don't need to sit on the computer all day panicking when price moves 30-100 pips against me...

I also have found that when I did have the chance to see what was going on with my trades, I was eagerly tempted to close up the position, or move my stop in too tight for the given trade (for example, thinking of moving my weekly trade to B/E when it had only gone for a couple days)...


Psychology is everything in this game. Reading a chart and identifying PA at vital areas is EASYYYY... wrapping your brain around risk/reward is very, very difficult....
Dan thanks very much for this reply. I don't think I put my post across in the best way but you have definately picked up on what I was trying to say. It sounds like you have been in the stage that I find myself now so your reply is hugely helpful.

Thanks

Leon
  • #55,657
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:25am Feb 22, 2010 6:25am
Quoting bertie123
Hi all

As a J16 person who was derailed but now back on track, I would just like to ask if some of you guys have problems spotting the setups in real-time? I find I am seeing a lot of setups after the event(easy, I know) but am just not seeing them develop in real time - has anyone else had this problem how do you overcome this hurdle?

thanks guys

berti
Well i think it could be a result of reading and learning about the stuff too much, but not spending enough time on charts.

you need some chart time and also watch the videos in guest section.
.
  • #55,658
  • Edited 6:57am Feb 22, 2010 6:44am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting bertie123
Hi all

As a J16 person who was derailed but now back on track, I would just like to ask if some of you guys have problems spotting the setups in real-time? I find I am seeing a lot of setups after the event(easy, I know) but am just not seeing them develop in real time - has anyone else had this problem how do you overcome this hurdle?

thanks guys

berti
You're not alone berti. It's so common. I have gone through and still go through the same stuff. You look at a chart, agonise over taking something, then four days later when it works out you think "man that was obvious how could I miss that". Mike still goes through it too.

It's partly because when we look over our historical charts we see both the before and after part of the setup. We see the pinbar at the peak of the mountain with the steep slope on either side. Looks perfect. Then we see a setup forming and there is only one side of the mountain. And to our brains, even subconsciously, the doubts form because it doesn't look the same.

It's perfectly normal and great that you recognise it. Many people in an early stage just open the chart and see a pinbar at the top of the trend and think "wow if i'd held that all the way down I would have made 20 times my risk!" ignoring all the heavy retracements on the way that would have had them sweating bullets. Accepting that the feelings after the fact are different to the feelings before is an important stage of the curve, in my opinion.

Solutions? Well I have some suggestions that help me. You need to train you eyes to see good setups before they play out, seeing the pinbar with only "one side of the mountain", if you see what I mean. Backtesting is a great great way to do this because we are evaluating tons of setups without seeing the full chart. In my opinion the single biggest advantage of backtesting as opposed to just looking over the charts for the last year, is that we get to identify these setups without seeing what happens after the bar.

You can backtest using a program like forextester that allows you to replay market data as live, or you can use the F12 key in MT4 to just scroll forward one bar at a time.

Another thing I use is before and after snapshots in my journal. I take a screenshot of the setup as I take it, then I take another one several bars later (often long after I got out) to see how it panned out. The two screenshots get entered into my journal. These 'before' pictures have become very important to me in monitoring my progress.

And while I am on the subject, a final word about record keeping. It's been the single biggest factor in improving my trading. I believe that at the very least everyone should keep a spreadsheet. The historical record thing in MT4 simply isn't enough IMO. I keep a spreadsheet and a journal over on PF and without it I would have missed glaring things that I was doing wrong. Keeping records, tracking alternative exit strategies, having screenshots of your trades..... this all helps keep you disciplined and avoids the "heck I'll just slam on a position and see where it goes" mentality. It becomes so easy to look back and ask, for example, "how many trend trades am I winning compared to counter trend trades". It really was one of the biggest keys to improving my trading. There was one month where I decided that records were hampering me and that I needed to "cut loose". It was my worst trading month ever.

I hope those suggestions help. It's a natural stage of the learning curve and I think a bit of backtesting, coupled with taking some before and after screenshots, will really help you get over it.

But if my observations of the seniors, and my experiences are anything to go by, you'll still sometimes find yourself scratching your head and going "how did I talk myself out of that one?" (just ask Mike about the peso..). It's much better, in my opinion, than scratching your head and saying "why did I take that one?"
  • #55,659
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:49am Feb 22, 2010 6:49am
Quoting TiaForex
You're not alone berti. It's so common. I have gone through and still go through the same stuff. You look at a chart, agonise over taking something, then four days later when it works out you think "man that was obvious how could I miss that". Mike still goes through it too.

It's partly because when we look over our historical charts we see both the before and after part of the setup. We see the pinbar at the peak of the mountain with the steep slope on either side. Looks perfect. Then we see a setup forming and there is only one side of the...
And yet another classic.
  • #55,660
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:54am Feb 22, 2010 6:54am
James doesn't go beyond this thread much, but he did recently for a lone post and I thought it was so good that I wanted to see it posted here. I am sure he won't mind (and if you do Jim, I'll delete it). It's just too too god to waste.

From James16:

my experience over the last 30 years is that all this "stuff" spoken about by so many well meaning smart people is just mental masturbation.

People think that the real keys to succes in this business are somehow shrouded behind a mystical curtain only obtainable by those with 140 iq's and an understanding of ultra complicated subjects.

Its the exact opposite.

The real keys behind success in this business are found by leaving all that mental crap behind you and understanding some very simple basic truths.

(all the "you's" used below are not directed at you personally mind but meant as general)

1. if you dont treat this as a business anything and everything you attempt will fail.

2. if you cant trade a daily chart with success you cant trade any time frame lower with success. so why try?

3. if you think 3 months of practice is suffecient to start a business and expect positive results then your either naive or brain dead.

4. virtually no one ( even those that treat it as a business) that start with a small account ever see it become a large account. Overtrading kills them all. Give the same trader one account with 250,000 and give him another with 2500 and you will see two different traders.

when 50 pips are worth 5 bucks they will watch it turn into a loss and trade everything they see. when those 50 pips are worth 10, 25, 50,000 they will smile all the way to the bank and FOCUS IN ON 1 OR 2 GREAT SET UPS A MONTH OUT OF ALL THE INSTRUMERNTS THEY TRADE.

5. BREAKEVENS ARE WINS. they should always be counted as wins. a small account holder that learns and implements the value of breakeven over hope is very very rare and should be commended. i tried 8 years with no success and it cost me more than i care to think about.

6. the less on your chart the better. indicators were invented to impress wives and girlfriends. they are good for one thing. conflunce and/or divergence.

i could go on forever and since i type with one finger im getting tired.

i dont get involved on this side of the forum often because I NEVER want to come accross as preachy or as hawking something.

im always available via email to anyone but just remember my one finger.

if any new trader would just refuse to trade with real money until what they are attempting is first proven on demo or a tiny micro account for a half a year or so they would discover several things.

1. there is no such thing as any system or method "THAT WORKS".
they must be combined with some of the points above before that can happen.
MM and RR techniques are a waste of mental energy until a certain "level" of experience and hard knocks have been achieved. that comes with time and practice. if the time and practice is spent the wrong way it will be a never ending nightmare.

2. simple is better.

as i always say all of this is just my opinion. nothing less/nothing more.

its simply comes from my personal experience.

Jim
79 traders viewing now