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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #4,341
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:36am Feb 21, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Pip Dawg
I have deleted all the pics of hot Brazilian bundas...well not all of them...but I won't post them anymore.
hey dawg, how do you go about deleting your own posts, if you wanted to.

thanks
  • #4,342
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:36am Feb 21, 2010 11:36am
Quoting EntropyLad
Well, market opens in a few hours.

AUD/NZD tt trade at 1.2805 will suffice if TT rules are met.

I like how AUD/USD from last week is now at 0.8980
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4234

TT trades rock!


Wonder if EUR/USD will go down after opening..from 1.36137 or if USD/CHF will go up after 1.0745. I dont consider these two to be TT trades giving weekend open/friday close. It makes no sense to me to start taking trades after 12pm EST on friday, TT or otherwise.

It is too early to say... but i wont...
I like the setup of the AUDNZD the only thing I do not like about that pair is the long wicks on those so innocent looking candles, I usually avoid those long stringy candles, just about the time you think your in the clear, they attack....
--NM
  • #4,343
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:47am Feb 21, 2010 11:47am
The EURUSD is in an interesting spot, right at some good resistance, however the retracements have been getting deeper over the last 3 retracements and pullback up and past the breakout, maybe the bears are losing their grip on this pair?

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Will it or wont it.png Size: 66 KB
  • #4,344
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:55am Feb 21, 2010 11:55am
Quoting NightMoves
The EURUSD is in an interesting spot, right at some good resistance, however the retracements have been getting deeper over the last 3 retracements and pullback up and past the breakout, maybe the bears are losing their grip on this pair?

--NM
I see what you mean...but, one can also see that as a flat bottom triangle that just broke out, now testing the breakout point, preparing for a new down thrust.
Ah, technical analysis...soo many different ways of seeing the same darn thing!

ON AUD/NZD....i agree about those bloody wicks...in fact, if you look at 177 videos of hector on youtube, majority of his failed trades are in AUD/NZD or EUR/CHF. But...i am getting more confident in using TT trade to nail the exact reversal or re-continuation point....oh yes, AUD/NZD is at the weekly high.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4215
  • #4,345
  • Feb 21, 2010 12:36pm Feb 21, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I see what you mean...but, one can also see that as a flat bottom triangle that just broke out, now testing the breakout point, preparing for a new down thrust.
Ah, technical analysis...soo many different ways of seeing the same darn thing!

ON AUD/NZD....i agree about those bloody wicks...in fact, if you look at 177 videos of hector on youtube, majority of his failed trades are in AUD/NZD or EUR/CHF. But...i am getting more confident in using TT trade to nail the exact reversal or re-continuation point....oh yes, AUD/NZD is at the weekly high....
I know that is what puts it in such an interesting spot, it could break out and go quite a distance yet, so it will be fun to see what it does,the USDCHF had a similar setup and decided it was not done yet and headed north for another nice impulse, I guess as long as we are in the green zone between the 30 and 50 it is not too bad, as it did come back into that area...very interesting. Just have to pay close attention and see if the EURUSD has anything left to give....

--NM
  • #4,346
  • Feb 21, 2010 1:24pm Feb 21, 2010 1:24pm
For those interested....i have been reading through JAMES16 thread. Here is the collection of the best of james16.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Knock yourself silly.
  • #4,347
  • Feb 21, 2010 1:59pm Feb 21, 2010 1:59pm
A little early to tell for sure what the opening price may be, but as I see it right now the the resistance level on the EURUSD is having no factor on the price moving higher, it walked though it so far like it was not there...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Opening Price getting higher.png Size: 45 KB
  • #4,348
  • Feb 21, 2010 2:30pm Feb 21, 2010 2:30pm
Hey NM..

Nice .. thanks for the tip on the 75% Fibo rule mixed with the ADR in the long term charts as I prefer them now rather than the shorter TF's..

Do you by chance blend some sort of price action Pins, OB, IB, Bearish OB or Bullish OB in with the trend trading off the moving averages if near them or away from them in some way even ignoring the MA's at times?....
What sort of Trade management would you use on that?

cheers,
Adrian




Quoting NightMoves
Hi Adrian,

When in the long term trades of course the intraday levels really do not mean anything, and it is all S/R, and following the 75% rule can keep you in a trade a long time, basically what you do is measure the last impulse wave, and as long as you do not get a full candle close beyond 75% you stay in and ride the next impulse, and then move your Fibonacci lines to the new impulse and start all over again.

It always nice to take some profit out of the trade in case it does do a 180 on you then you still scored some profits on the trade....
  • #4,349
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:30pm Feb 21, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting aarangio
Hey NM..

Nice .. thanks for the tip on the 75% Fibo rule mixed with the ADR in the long term charts as I prefer them now rather than the shorter TF's..

Do you by chance blend some sort of price action Pins, OB, IB, Bearish OB or Bullish OB in with the trend trading off the moving averages if near them or away from them in some way even ignoring the MA's at times?....
What sort of Trade management would you use on that?

cheers,
Adrian
No I dont use OB.or IB or any of that, especially if they are just off the MA lines, I try to keep it as simple as possible, one can make trading as complicated as they wish to or they can make it as simple as they wish too, and I would rather keep it as simple as I can. All I need is a good trend and good S/R levels a few drawn trend lines, some RN's and I am good to go...

--NM
  • #4,350
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:37pm Feb 21, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting NightMoves
No I dont use OB.or IB or any of that, especially if they are just off the MA lines, I try to keep it as simple as possible, one can make trading as complicated as they wish to or they can make it as simple as they wish too, and I would rather keep it as simple as I can. All I need is a good trend and good S/R levels a few drawn trend lines, some RN's and I am good to go...

--NM
Cheers thanks for that NM, i can see your point..thought there might be an easy way to use them with this method just a matter of when and how to use them..

Adrian
  • #4,351
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:43pm Feb 21, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting aarangio
Cheers thanks for that NM, i can see your point..thought there might be an easy way to use them with this method just a matter of when and how to use them..

Adrian
And there might be, I just have never tried to use them that much I have tested inside bars and outside bars but the results are mixed and maybe I am not the best person to be running a test like that because my trading method does not use them, I am all about S/R levels in a trend and price formations around those levels.

--NM
  • #4,352
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:45pm Feb 21, 2010 3:45pm
The USDCHF has retraced back to the 61.8 fib number 36 pips above the RN 1.0700...

--NM
  • #4,353
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:47pm Feb 21, 2010 3:47pm
The USDCAD looks like it is in full breakout mode at the moment on the hourly chart...

--NM
  • #4,354
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:50pm Feb 21, 2010 3:50pm
Here is pic of the USDCAD 1 hr.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Breakout.png Size: 24 KB
  • #4,355
  • Edited 4:43pm Feb 21, 2010 4:16pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting NightMoves
No I dont use OB.or IB or any of that, especially if they are just off the MA lines, I try to keep it as simple as possible, one can make trading as complicated as they wish to or they can make it as simple as they wish too, and I would rather keep it as simple as I can. All I need is a good trend and good S/R levels a few drawn trend lines, some RN's and I am good to go...

--NM
hahaha. I agree. At the same time, i think james16 approach and hector and danuk and jacko and brv are all very similar: buying obvious support and selling resistance. It is striking.

I am curious about the use of reversal candles on setup chart to initiate entry --if and only if, the reversal candle happened at S/R, RN, a few trendlines, and good trend. I just started reading JAMES16...so, i dont have much to say about it...but...i can see how a strong hammer/gravestone(PIN BAR) action(with the head at least 1/2 the length of the tail), can be a good reversal if it happens at hector confluence of S/R point. I totally agree with james16 concept of "space". Also, i am more comfortable with engulfing bearish or bullish, than the harami. So far, i like hammer, inverted hammer(gravestone) and engulfing bar. I am still reading through james16 thread....i will start demoing next month, based on how that goes, i may go live with it or not. Essentially, a hector trade setup mixed with specific candles pattern(gravetone, hammer, engulfing bar) at expected reversal point, of course, sell 1/2 at 1:1. I can see how this will compliment TT very well, let us say your TT trade doesnt trigger or your 1, 2, 3 formation didnt form, you can still enter if and only if it forms the right candle stick formation.

Hector trades are basically the same thing...except that hector looks for pattern formations(1, 2, 3 = which is basically a flattop triangle or a flat bottom triangle, that also serves as a double top/bottom formation) instead of candlesticks formations like james16 does. Also, hector refined it further by looking for a break of the inner trendline on the trigger chart(which essentially is a a break of the last S/R), thereby clearing the way for strong price movement. Hector approach is more sophisticated and well thought-through than jacko or danuk or james16 or bRV, in my humble opinion.

So they are very similar...and i have noticed, one can be triggered while the other doesnt..and besides, learning these things can be used to pyramid and compound. Just dont confuse yourself. Remember: Keep it simple.
  • #4,356
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:18pm Feb 21, 2010 4:18pm
Whats up with CADJPY, looks like it is trying to tempt us....

--NM
  • #4,357
  • Edited 4:46pm Feb 21, 2010 4:35pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting NightMoves
The USDCAD looks like it is in full breakout mode at the moment on the hourly chart...

--NM

i can see that...and if it is an asian currency, i will be interested...but i am inclined to not take polygonal formation breakouts in USD/CAD outside of LOB or 8am to 10am US est time. I expressed myself clearly below link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4292

Oh yes, on the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF....EUR/USD gapped open(just as you predicted)...despite my bearish take on it i wont/cant short it at gap open, due to friday close/weekend open..negates all TT trades there. The same for USD/CHF...went to a low of 1.0738 below the expected 1.0745(that i stated earlier, reversed, gives a +20pips move)...still, i wont trade that too. But it is good to see TT function despite the odds against it.
  • #4,358
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:49pm Feb 21, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting EntropyLad
i can see that...and if it is an asian currency, i will be interested...but i am inclined to not take polygonal formation breakouts in USD/CAD outside of LOB or 8am to 10am US est time. I expressed myself clearly below link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4292

Oh yes, on the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF....EUR/USD gapped open(just as you predicted)...despite my bearish take on it i wont/cant short it at gap open, due to friday close/weekend open..negates all TT trades there. The same for USD/CHF...went to a...
Actually my gap prediction was not a prediction I was watching it beofre our trading session opened. That is why I was posting the charts, I have no gap on my live account, I dont think I have ever seen a gap in there..

--NM
  • #4,359
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:26pm Feb 21, 2010 5:26pm
I would also avoid a pair with long wicks as it due to high volatility which can close a trade out easily.

Quoting NightMoves
I like the setup of the AUDNZD the only thing I do not like about that pair is the long wicks on those so innocent looking candles, I usually avoid those long stringy candles, just about the time you think your in the clear, they attack....
--NM
  • #4,360
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:37pm Feb 21, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting MktScape
I would also avoid a pair with long wicks as it due to high volatility which can close a trade out easily.
I dont mess with them, there are easier pairs to trade for sure, but some folks do not mind them,and it is all about your comfort zone.

--NM
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