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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,581
  • Feb 21, 2010 1:26pm Feb 21, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting daveoz001
Just thought I'd take a minute to say hello.

I only started to read this thread last night, I have only read page 1 so far and am following the directions posted there, I have a LOT of reading AND learning to do!

It seems like this is a great place to do both.

I am very thankful to James16 and the other senior members who contribute so much of their time to share their knowledge and wisdom.
That is a rare gift not many people are willing to give.

Anyway that is enough from me, so a big HELLO to everyone.
And thanks in advance!!!

Dave.
Welcome Dave

Don't hesitate to ask questions along the way We got quite a "crew" of helpful people

Mike
  • #55,582
  • Feb 21, 2010 2:54pm Feb 21, 2010 2:54pm
Thanks for the welcome,

My shoes are off, my feet are up, and I'm eying off the fridge!!!!!
Must feel like home already!

jlmac27, I had already been over to watch some vids, they are excellent, this is the reason I had only read 1 page..........now I have read upto post #100 and watched 4 of the videos and read some other lessons!!

Just some info on me.
I have just opened my 1st live FX account with GoMarkets here in Australia.
I have been studying trading on and off since I bought a Gann style course about 10 years ago, but have never felt confident enough to 'Take the plunge'

Now this time I am committed 100% to figuring this thing out and make it work.

And with the help and encouragement offered here I feel the only thing I need to do is control my emotions..........

Thanks again for the welcome, I'll be around for some time to come.

Dave.

P.S. If my manners around the house aren't what they should be, just clip me 'round the ear, and send me to my room.
I'll soon get the message!!!

Questions coming soon!
  • #55,583
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:35pm Feb 21, 2010 3:35pm
Hi Guys,

I am about to do some major back testing of the weekly/daily charts (for PA), I have a spreadsheet set-up to record everything. I intend to do this quite thoroughly and to have data that is significant for calculations. I also think it will solidify in my mind that this stuff works.

What is a good range of data to back test? I was thinking pick a few majors/crosses/gold/a few futures? Then test 2-3 years worth on each?

Any help is appreciated. I will share the results also.

Regards

Chatzi
  • #55,584
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:38pm Feb 21, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting chatzi
Hi Guys,

I am about to do some major back testing of the weekly/daily charts (for PA), I have a spreadsheet set-up to record everything. I intend to do this quite thoroughly and to have data that is significant for calculations. I also think it will solidify in my mind that this stuff works.

What is a good range of data to back test? I was thinking pick a few majors/crosses/gold/a few futures? Then test 2-3 years worth on each?

Any help is appreciated. I will share the results also.

Regards

Chatzi
2-3 years would be great but imo opinion, you'll probably get a decent feel of whether or not the system works for you in more like 6 months to one year.
This will be really cool though man and I can't wait to see some of your results.
Thank you,

Donnie
  • #55,585
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:41pm Feb 21, 2010 3:41pm
Quote
No one seriously watches Fox for news


If I watch Fox for news among other channels for information does that mean that there is someone and that there is the possibility there are other someone’s?

When I grew up my older brother had a poster in his room, it said, “Before you follow the crowd…look where it is going”.

I have learned threw the years to be wary of phrases that invoke peer pressure to get you to do and believe what “everyone is or is not doing”. I have found I need to do my own digging, checking the facts to begin to understand what is really going on.

In the past I have found that one of the biggest mistakes I made was to surround myself only with friends who think exactly like I do and gather information that only supports the view I already have. Talk about tunnel vision and missing the obvious, yet this is human nature.

The other night I found myself talking to someone who had completely different view then me. You know what, I learned something……..Hmm.




You are all great group.


Dale
  • #55,586
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:44pm Feb 21, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting chatzi
Hi Guys,

I am about to do some major back testing of the weekly/daily charts (for PA), I have a spreadsheet set-up to record everything. I intend to do this quite thoroughly and to have data that is significant for calculations. I also think it will solidify in my mind that this stuff works.

What is a good range of data to back test? I was thinking pick a few majors/crosses/gold/a few futures? Then test 2-3 years worth on each?

Any help is appreciated. I will share the results also.

Regards

Chatzi
Backtesting is good. You can get a good feel for your methods, and reasonable idea of what they may produce/drawdown. Obviously nothing will ever replace forward testing and that is why we do backtest - real demo - small live - increase etc. The more data the better. The more pairs the better. Their are drawbacks to backtesting, but I think it does much more good then harm if done correctly and honestly as possible.

It is tedious and eye numbing but worth it

Mike
  • #55,587
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:48pm Feb 21, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting mbqb11
Backtesting is good. You can get a good feel for your methods, and reasonable idea of what they may produce/drawdown. Obviously nothing will ever replace forward testing and that is why we do backtest - real demo - small live - increase etc. The more data the better. The more pairs the better. Their are drawbacks to backtesting, but I think it does much more good then harm if done correctly and honestly as possible.

It is tedious and eye numbing but worth it

Mike
The thing that can't be stressed enough about backtesting is the confidence that it feeds you; just as forward testing and trading real-time does. If someone hasn't gone through a ton of trades, they won't be anywhere near as confident as someone who's traded for years and tests every week. Backtesting helps mold your mindset into a confident, successful one.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,588
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:52pm Feb 21, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting mbqb11
Backtesting is good. You can get a good feel for your methods, and reasonable idea of what they may produce/drawdown. Obviously nothing will ever replace forward testing and that is why we do backtest - real demo - small live - increase etc. The more data the better. The more pairs the better. Their are drawbacks to backtesting, but I think it does much more good then harm if done correctly and honestly as possible.

It is tedious and eye numbing but worth it

Mike
Cheers Mike and others, I will be demoing alongside this, im going to collect as much relevant data as possible so I can analyse it after. I want to be able to do this for example, Show me the win rate of all trades that were pin bars with trend at major ppz and on a BRN. Collecting results based on a few exit strategies also will be useful.

Regards

Chatzi
  • #55,589
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:00pm Feb 21, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting mike w
The thing that can't be stressed enough about backtesting is the confidence that it feeds you; just as forward testing and trading real-time does. If someone hasn't gone through a ton of trades, they won't be anywhere near as confident as someone who's traded for years and tests every week. Backtesting helps mold your mindset into a confident, successful one.
Absolutely. Only time can provide us with confidence that something works.
  • #55,590
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:02pm Feb 21, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting chatzi
Cheers Mike and others, I will be demoing alongside this, im going to collect as much relevant data as possible so I can analyse it after. I want to be able to do this for example, Show me the win rate of all trades that were pin bars with trend at major ppz and on a BRN. Collecting results based on a few exit strategies also will be useful.

Regards

Chatzi
You certainly have some work cut out for you. No risk of idle time for you
  • #55,591
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:04pm Feb 21, 2010 4:04pm
Hi all,
I see a pin bar on the USDNOK daily with some confluence
1. a ppz that goes way back (see monthly chart)
2. a rejection of the 1.600 big round number
3. rejection close to the 365 MA
4. 23% fib retracement

I like to look for reasons against too - the only one I see here is
that the tail is not overly long.
Any thoughts anyone?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdnokdaily.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdnokmonthly.gif Size: 19 KB
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #55,592
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:05pm Feb 21, 2010 4:05pm
Quote
Hi Guys,

I am about to do some major back testing of the weekly/daily charts (for PA), I have a spreadsheet set-up to record everything. I intend to do this quite thoroughly and to have data that is significant for calculations. I also think it will solidify in my mind that this stuff works.

What is a good range of data to back test? I was thinking pick a few majors/crosses/gold/a few futures? Then test 2-3 years worth on each?

Any help is appreciated. I will share the results also.

Regards

Chatzi


Back Testing, Forward Testing.

Go for it.


If you wanted to learn a foreign language would immersion help?


Best regards

Dale
  • #55,593
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:07pm Feb 21, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting glyder
Hi all,
I see a pin bar on the USDNOK daily with some confluence
1. a ppz that goes way back (see monthly chart)
2. a rejection of the 1.600 big round number
3. rejection close to the 365 MA
4. 23% fib retracement

I like to look for reasons against too - the only one I see here is
that the tail is not overly long.
Any thoughts anyone?
I'm looking at both USDNOK and USDCHF. I'm in the process of trying to decide between the two and then decide whether to place any pending order at all.

Btw, I think you mean the 6.000 round number

My USDNOK spread is not pretty so that's something I have to factor in.
  • #55,594
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:22pm Feb 21, 2010 4:22pm
Thanks o990l6mh,

spread is a good point, and yes thanks for the correction on the round number. 6.000 it is.

Quoting o990l6mh
I'm looking at both USDNOK and USDCHF. I'm in the process of trying to decide between the two and then decide whether to place any pending order at all.

Btw, I think you mean the 6.000 round number

My USDNOK spread is not pretty so that's something I have to factor in.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #55,595
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:34pm Feb 21, 2010 4:34pm
Here's what I'm seeing:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100221 usdchf.jpg Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 100221 usdnok.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #55,596
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:36pm Feb 21, 2010 4:36pm
Hello All,
Im being brave and trying to upload a chart of euraud wondering if this is a qualifying pin? It's not big but sits close to last montly support from 2000. There is good space above with first trouble looking like its back at 1.5400.
Is there anything else I should be seeing?
Huge thanks...
Cherry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #55,597
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:42pm Feb 21, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting ljr
Hi Dan

Great chart as always..................


I know this is just due to the time zone on the different brokers but I think the point I'm trying to make is your chart makes going long possible as there is a bit of room before the first trouble but looking at my chart it would be a definate NO ( besides the obvious fact it not really a Pin bar on my chart ) as the trade would immediately be hitting those previous bar lows.

huh????

I think you mean that the formation of the bars would make a trade possible? I would say no, unless you just want to catch a 20-40 pip run before a trouble area.... I mean I suppose you could go long, but is that really the path of least resistance right now?


Quote
I know one can trade based purely by looking at the Daily but does anybody else do this. Look at the lower timeframe to see what actually happened at a particular level.

Dan lets assume on your chart there was a bit more room to the first trouble area and based on your Daily chart you decided to take this trade. Would looking at the lower timeframe change your decision or is it just better to only look at the timeframe you are basing your trade on. It just seems in this case doing this could have potentially kept one out of a bad trade.


I was zeroing on lower timeframes for more clues for a while, but I have now found that sometimes defeats the purpose of trading a daily/weekly bar... (in other words, why take a long-term stress free trade and make it a high-maintenance, intra-day trade?)

the previous week I barely had any time spent on the charts, and both my trades did just fine without me checking on them every 30 minutes (USDJPY weekly IB straddling 90.00, and the 4hr flag pattern breakout on GBPUSD). Really you should just have a plan, and stick to it. You don't need to move your stops to B/E right away if you don't want to. You don't need to freak out about a full bar loss if that full bar is 2% of your account.... and IF a full bar loss of 2% is more than you can stomach, try risking 1% per trade... or LESS....

I have been kind of realizing lately that less is more. All I needed was a vacation of not checking my charts for a few days, only to log into my account and see two winning trades running simultaneously to realize I don't need to sit on the computer all day panicking when price moves 30-100 pips against me...

I also have found that when I did have the chance to see what was going on with my trades, I was eagerly tempted to close up the position, or move my stop in too tight for the given trade (for example, thinking of moving my weekly trade to B/E when it had only gone for a couple days)...


Psychology is everything in this game. Reading a chart and identifying PA at vital areas is EASYYYY... wrapping your brain around risk/reward is very, very difficult....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #55,598
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:43pm Feb 21, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Here's what I'm seeing:
The CHF is heading into the 365 ema, also thre was a large with trend 2 day pin a few days back, it could prove to be a hurdle, maybe play the break of ema?
  • #55,599
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:45pm Feb 21, 2010 4:45pm
Hi,

It is indeed a pleasure and surprising to have someone with such a noble & wise mindset of educating. I agree that there is no free lunch and charging for your educational service is fair and absolutely right.

I would be a regular visitor to this post and would be ready to join you soon once i have some financial arrangements. I am 23, 9 months old in Forex business and want to reach at the peak of excellence in the Forex business. Hopefully I would get adequate amount of guidance from you.

Regards
Sagar Dawda
  • #55,600
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:51pm Feb 21, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting chatzi
The CHF is heading into the 365 ema, also thre was a large with trend 2 day pin a few days back, it could prove to be a hurdle, maybe play the break of ema?
Yes, the 365 comes in at around 1.0730 so I will be placing my order below that level, if i decide to place an order.

Notice also how the first pin bar you mentioned tested and made a whipsaw break through the 4H trendline. That trendline was again broken through with a close below it as Friday closed.
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