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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #216,061
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:27pm Feb 20, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'd be very interested to see what you're seeing on the Weekly and Monthly charts.. Test of 5sma on Weekly failed?

I'm not trusting this week's upmoves, but the rapid buying off support levels makes me nervous of shorts. Saying that, the volumes were a tad lower this week....

AJ gonna test 91 first before the real break lower to lower 60's ..
  • #216,062
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:29pm Feb 20, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'd be very interested to see what you're seeing on the Weekly and Monthly charts.. Test of 5sma on Weekly failed?

I'm not trusting this week's upmoves, but the rapid buying off support levels makes me nervous of shorts. Saying that, the volumes were a tad lower this week....
I have a daily chart that speaks volume. . . gimme a sec. . . This is the chart I will be working from for 6 months at least!
  • #216,063
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:39pm Feb 20, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting zweig
AJ gonna test 91 first before the real break lower to lower 60's ..
Yea, AY is the anomoly for me right now. Ordinarily, for the Yen pairs to fall significantly, they ALL have to take a tumble at the same time. AY has been as solid as a rock despite the charts screaming short. I haven't looked at the Aussie data releases for next week, so maybe 'they' have something planned...

If we are to se Q's 130-136 ish, AY would need to join the game, but it's something i'm not convinced of at the moment.

Hmmmm.
  • #216,064
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:45pm Feb 20, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'd be very interested to see what you're seeing on the Weekly and Monthly charts.. Test of 5sma on Weekly failed?

I'm not trusting this week's upmoves, but the rapid buying off support levels makes me nervous of shorts. Saying that, the volumes were a tad lower this week....
U don't wanna know what I see on the monthly I won't speak of it hear. . . But here is a daily chart that suggest we are headed lower. . .

There are some major support that's need at least a solid daily close below them before we can say we are in a full continuation south. . . if verified I see 112 but we won't talk about that right now until after this consolidation. . .

Also, you can clearly see only a solid daily close above 143-143.50 area would suggest more upside and the min target is 146.50 area with a possible spike up to 147-147.50 area. . .

This week will be the determining factor where we head next - my bias is to sell all rallies at major resistance level. . . Also, my little indi at the bottom has given me early warning signs that the daily trend is about to change and head south. . .

Click on the chart to get a better look. . . I welcome your comments on the chart!

Again, I will be working with this chart for the next 3-6 months tracking PA.
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  • #216,065
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:46pm Feb 20, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yea, AY is the anomoly for me right now. Ordinarily, for the Yen pairs to fall significantly, they ALL have to take a tumble at the same time. AY has been as solid as a rock despite the charts screaming short. I haven't looked at the Aussie data releases for next week, so maybe 'they' have something planned...

If we are to se Q's 130-136 ish, AY would need to join the game, but it's something i'm not convinced of at the moment.

Hmmmm.
you will see a major supp at 76.30,,break below that,then its tickets ,but so far its above and will only sell if we see 90/91 somewehre or below 76.30
look at my charts i posted earlier ..AJ,CAD/j and nzd/jpy
  • #216,066
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:11pm Feb 20, 2010 2:11pm
here is what i see: support just jumped @ 141 area, a daily close below 140.90 would mean resumption of downtrend and i am talking about 132 area first (which is last year close and i expect support there).

on the other hand, as long as we don't see a daily close below 140.90 (or a lower low on weekly), upside targets are 145 - 148. after all, we still are inside the ascending channel. but here we need to see a daily close above 142.95 - that's where i see resistance.

quite a bit of room for choppy movements. i do not intend to take any trades before i see a clear movement. normally, i would buy all dips until 140.65 is taken... but in this case i'd rather wait.

Quoting quecee5
U don't wanna know what I see on the monthly I won't speak of it hear. . . But here is a daily chart that suggest we are headed lower. . .

There are some major support that's need at least a solid daily close below them before we can say we are in a full continuation south. . . if verified I see 112 but we won't talk about that right now until after this consolidation. . .

Also, you can clearly see only a solid daily close above 143-143.50 area would suggest more upside and the min target is 146.50 area with...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,067
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:31pm Feb 20, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting quecee5
Wow, looking over the weekly chart and discover we are in for one nice ride lower before we head any higher. . .

Next week will be a bear week and we are going to see some shape moves lower before heading higher. . .
After I saw CAD&CHF index vs USD....

and gold failed to break 1096 my critical level for more down n daily UJ..not sure if this UJ is valid daily H&S..look like yes for me....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=199458
Attached Image
  • #216,068
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:55pm Feb 20, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting grashid
After I saw CAD&CHF index vs USD....

and gold failed to break 1096 my critical level for more down n daily UJ..not sure if this UJ is valid daily H&S..look like yes for me....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=199458
there is no H&S ,,only valid one,could be this inverted one ...usd/jpy target 94.60 /95.60 area
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  • #216,069
  • Feb 20, 2010 3:59pm Feb 20, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting quecee5
U don't wanna know what I see on the monthly I won't speak of it hear. . . But here is a daily chart that suggest we are headed lower. . .

There are some major support that's need at least a solid daily close below them before we can say we are in a full continuation south. . . if verified I see 112 but we won't talk about that right now until after this consolidation. . .

Also, you can clearly see only a solid daily close above 143-143.50 area would suggest more upside and the min target is 146.50 area with...
Thanks for this. I guess the problem I have right now is I can see no clear case for either bullish or bearish. The overall trend has been down since 163, (or 250), but there was quite significant buying volume at 138.20-50 and like I said, strong bullish reversals whenever a dip has occurred at support. The respect the PA has had for the LTL has been quite scary. I see people post how easy it's been and I smell something very trappish about the whole thing.

Thanks for your explanation. I think a zonal approach might be a good play for now.

How much faith do you place in the Acceleration Oscillator?
  • #216,070
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:34pm Feb 20, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting quecee5
if verified I see 112
  • #216,071
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:52pm Feb 20, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting zweig
here is the trend for the next odd years. hope you all are still here and well ,for the ABC correction to 190..
i can't see that far ahead.
one at a time for me.
besides.... not sure if i agree with your count.
  • #216,072
  • Edited 5:14pm Feb 20, 2010 4:56pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Thanks for this. I guess the problem I have right now is I can see no clear case for either bullish or bearish. The overall trend has been down since 163, (or 250), but there was quite significant buying volume at 138.20-50 and like I said, strong bullish reversals whenever a dip has occurred at support. The respect the PA has had for the LTL has been quite scary. I see people post how easy it's been and I smell something very trappish about the whole thing.

Thanks for your explanation. I think a zonal approach might be a good play for now....
The indi is just a gage nothing more nothing less. . . I use it just to determine what the market is thinking meaning. . .

If i see price steadily heading up and the indi is steadily diverging that tells me a story and vice versa. . .

Anyway, I believe we will see ranging until Thursday February 25th up until month end. Hopefully after that we will get some sort of direction on this pair and my bias is lower for a test of next support at 135.70 and a dip below to take out weak longs in that area. . .

But that's just my take. . . only a daily close above 143.65 will change my view. . .
  • #216,073
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:57pm Feb 20, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting pkimnyc
  • #216,074
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:59pm Feb 20, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting quecee5
lol
  • #216,075
  • Feb 20, 2010 5:07pm Feb 20, 2010 5:07pm
something to share.
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  • #216,076
  • Feb 21, 2010 1:16am Feb 21, 2010 1:16am
Quoting pkimnyc
something to share.
SOMETHING TO SHARE.
FOR THOSE WHO TRADE EURO...

I posted euro chart few months ago..saying there is a huge opportunity to sell...

From the Fundamental point of view seeing the PARITY..and below..

Here is one Possibility..

I wont be looking to Buy this one... Only to sell... from Higher resistence or 81%FIB retrace of the wave1 we are in...WHENEVER IT ENDS..

This is not cast in stone......Only a Probability...
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #216,077
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:47am Feb 21, 2010 3:47am
Quoting zweig
there is no H&S ,,only valid one,could be this inverted one ...usd/jpy target 94.60 /95.60 area
94-95 need to break 93.10 and 92.50/60 is the key for me....

For GY i just need Weekly vs Monthly& Daily to be align and perhaps mid of next week-1st week of march will be my setting...

Anyway I could be wrong..and let c this Daily H&S formation valid or not..n am holding it for my 1st 200pips target.

g
Attached Image
  • #216,078
  • Edited 4:40am Feb 21, 2010 4:04am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting Raza
SOMETHING TO SHARE.
FOR THOSE WHO TRADE EURO...

I posted euro chart few months ago..saying there is a huge opportunity to sell...

From the Fundamental point of view seeing the PARITY..and below..

Here is one Possibility..

I wont be looking to Buy this one... Only to sell... from Higher resistence or 81%FIB retrace of the wave1 we are in...WHENEVER IT ENDS..

This is not cast in stone......Only a Probability...
YES, i indeed trade/look at the eur. my view is the EXCACT oppesite from you. IM LOOKING FOR A DRAMATIC REVERSAL.. WENT LONG RIGHT AT THE BOTTOM @ 1.3450 (next week is the key,where i hope a big pullback and close as a spike low on monhtly,otherwise i will look closely and see if we not spike low to 1.3090 for the bottom.. we will test new highs in Q4 , Q1(2011) .
thats only my view and im sure it differs from the majority. and too much is eur negative..i need next week a close above 1.38 to add more weight on my view
  • #216,079
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:23am Feb 21, 2010 4:23am
Quoting grashid
94-95 need to break 93.10 and 92.50/60 is the key for me....

For GY i just need Weekly vs Monthly& Daily to be align and perhaps mid of next week-1st week of march will be my setting...

Anyway I could be wrong..and let c this Daily H&S formation valid or not..n am holding it for my 1st 200pips target.

g

i dont know what is youre targets/view on jpy ,but the monthly chart show me and had more weight on my view that we will see 95/96 atleast.
yes..there is a possibility for a test @ 86.84 .but thats about it ,for now. daily/weekly charts is pretty much bullish at the moment.

monhtly chart--- bullish engulfing
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  • #216,080
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:10am Feb 21, 2010 5:10am
Take a look this inverse head and shoulder in weekly which is in downtrend and looks more valid what do you think about it. What you will say right shoulder in this view is broken downside and also in downtrend which H&S we follow upside of down also high of right shoulder is 92.33 and recent high is 92.15. what if it gives a huge breakout given without taking sell stops above 92.33 level give me yours expert view thanks
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