AUD/USD

Same plan for next week

This is go down just becouse of news i expext to go to my profit,i dont have setup now but next week will be wathcing for buy,we will see,i trade just what i see acording my setup...




This is charts,we have retrace from nontradezone and good pin,also good retrace on h4



Cheers and happy piping

I will be looking for somewhere to trade longs to 9051 this week. But because of the weekly close below 8999 (February PP) I am still not bullish on this pair.
The Dollar index is consolidating above its February midpoint which to me means its setting up for further gains over the rest of this quarter up towards 86. Its going to become very hard for the USD and AUD to both be bullish at once and I think that the bearish side is going to come alive again for the aud soon, so I will be taking a longterm short at 9051 this week.

Yeah I'm going long-term short soon too. It is easy to be greedy and want 9200 but 9050 might be as good as it gets. It is also tempting to wait for the RBA decision but we could be back at 8950 before that happens.

I'm thinking of new strategy. The AUD pair will sometimes stay in 20 pip range, so I will wait for such a range to happen, then put a buy 10 pip above it, and a sell 10 pip below it. I won't set a target, but when I see it consolidating again in 20 pip range, I'll close out, and do same thing again.

We know, (well, I know), that the USD will gain. But right now, it's just starting, first with the EUR, then with the GBP, but those pairs are over sold, and GBP won't exactly give up without a fight, so there will be a lot of volatility, I remember last year, the CAD was the last one to fall apart, and the AUD as the first, is why I somewhat expected the AUD to come crashing down, but nothing happens exactly the same. So until the USD breaks that pesty SMA, I'm out of position trading.

Welcome comments, welcome.

Very short term views for next week...

Weekly: at BB20's median line (0.9049). Possible bounce down.
Daily: trapped between SMA34 and BB20 median line.
4 hours: BB20's median line crossed, heading to upper band (deviation 2 lying at around 0.9049)
Hourly: bearish rising wedge.
5 minutes: bearish rising wedge apparently broken though sideways.



In my view, thursday's heavy drop might have taken most bulls out of the market and friday's rise was mixed: news and bear profit taking all the way up, leaving few participants which leads to an almost flat market at the end of the week.

Price closed below the monthly pivot (0.8999) and didn't reach the round number (this is what makes me think that in the end there weren't either much bulls out there, in these cases with price so near the triple zero, I have seen them often push through near the end of the session, even if only to be as strongly rejected thereafter... ).

On the 4 hour chart there's still impulse to reach the upper bands, however the bearish rising wedge on hourly, which can be seen "turning" (broken but not in a clean or definite way), makes me think we could enter a consolidation period between 0.9000 and 0.8880 (daily "trap"), after maybe a first drop to 0.8930 (wedge projection) and then push to 0.9050 or possible double top at last HH.

Time to reassess everything with new eyes.
I'm slightly bearish, wishing to be bullish...

Currently long, since I am also short USD/CAD.

I will not short AUD/USD !! Long on AUD/USD. The reason is simple:

AUD/USD is positively correlated with eur/usd. Bears have got a firm grip on us dollar, so eur/usd will rise. AUD/USD and GBP/USD will also rise.

AUD/USD heading to 0.9163- monthly R 1.

GBP/USD shows a hammer !! Additional confirmation that GBP/USD will rise and USD will decline.

Friday candlestick on AUD/USD is quite bullish and green.

Thats just my personal views. I respect everyone views.

nice to meet person i sold/buy from.

2 sides of the same coin.

Good possiblity you will get pips. The power of USD bearishness will push aud/usd, gbp/usd and eur/usd to higher high. Long on all three !!

Here I thought the AUD was highly correlated with gold. And here I thought USD was currently highly correlated with the Nasdaq.

So which is it? Are you saying gold and Nasdaq are dependent on eur/usd?

Also, if you are shorting aud/usd because you think eur/usd will fall, why not just short eur/usd only? Why add more variables?

This will need plenty of discussion before we work this out.

COT report goes from 0 to 8. It indicates extreme bearishness is now turning into bullishness.

I do not look at gold or the Nasdaq. Couldn't even guess where they trade at now.
As for correlations here's my take.

Dollar bear :- long AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EURO/USD, GBP/USD or short USD/CAD, USD/CHF.
Dollar bull :- short AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EURO/USD, GBP/USD or long USD/CAD, USD/CHF.

At present I am long AUD/USD and short USD/CAD, so bearish USD on both.

if you overlay the charts , day timeframe, you can quickly see the correlations, if any....

people interested in basket trading claim much success by observing correlations...... my expeirence has not fared as well...... that might be due to my shortime frames, lack of understanding or both.....

i was short the usdcad all last week while being both long and short the audusd ....... the decisions were not based on correlations but purely on the pairs themsevles.... anything else just seems to muddy the water.......h

I don't think many people realize here the paradigm shift that just occurred with the discount rate hike. The Fed's message is clear, you just need to tune in to hear it! Add to that the fact that AUD is a cowardly currency; it never leads, always follows (the stock market). Just watch what always happens to it when US futures are deep in the red, speaking of which - the monetary tightening has started, but the market is yet to price it in.

Good luck to longs, you're gonna need it.

The W1 indicates strong bullish sentiment on AUDUSD. On the other hand, the D1 chart shows the recent bullish trend is not strong.
http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...20feb20101.gif

http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...20feb20101.gif

Pullback is almost completed. On the other hand, based on EW count, AUDUSD may not end its pullback so fast. There are possibilities where bearish Wave C might be happened before it’s next bullish move.

http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...20feb20101.gif

http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...20feb20101.gif

http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...420feb2010.png

I don't see any poster on the thread overly bullish on A/U. In fact I'd say most are either short or looking to short. The Fed's message is clear:

The discount rate increase is not a signal the Fed is prepared to tighten credit, New York Fed President William Dudley, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said yesterday.

“We got an inflation report that showed there’s no inflation pressure,” Dudley said after a speech in San Juan, Puerto Rico. “So our focus needs to be on growth and jobs.”

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke also said in speeches this week the move doesn’t signal a tightening of policy, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank may not lift its benchmark rate until 2011.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fse7f0D4&pos=2

And a move of over 3,100 pips last year is not what I would consider cowardly. I seem to remember you being down on this currency when it was in the 60's and that it was going to fall off a cliff when it was in the 70's. And here we are near the 90's again. It just keeps on bouncing like a rubber ball.

No doubt, the shorters day will come but probably after they've thrown in the towel and the market has convinced them it's going up again and when they least expect it. Isn't that always when it happens

Let's see what Mr Bernanke has to say on Thursday .... but I'm not holding my breath that he's going to become suddenly hawkish.

I didn't say AUD was a screaming short. Sure, if the markets spike up 3% tomorrow, you may see mid 91s. But go and overlay SPX on the same chart with AU, and tell me where it possibly dared to divert. That is what I meant by cowardly.

As for the Fed, they can qualify their moves however they want, but the fact remains that this is another step in the hawkish direction. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced (at least considering) withdrawals of QE soon too. Hoenig and Plosser already seem on board with that.

A/U

Hi all,
Considering that Mondays is a bit of a follower of NY friday late session, I would think the markets will initially inch up a bit till Asian open. Also it needs to be remembered that today is the first Monday of Asian new year trading. So overall markets could be positive.

The fact remains that the EURO and GBP although stronger than Friday morning, are both in downward trend, normally if one currency is bought against two majors, ( US against EU,GBP), then strenght is brought to that currency against other pairs. This combined with Fed Interest increase, and other fundamental factors should see the US dollar up. I am expecting the USD Index to inch towards 85 within the next couple of weeks or so.
This is just my humble opinion. Will post charts in the afternoon ( sydney time)