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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,121
  • Edited 10:48am Feb 19, 2010 8:01am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting BaliuxXx
It retraiced from weekly's 61 fibo and minor S/R. I think I willl be watching PA about 0.8830 to go long. Negative element, that weekly and monthly charts are making LL's and LH's in short term. But overal the trend is still up.
Quite a lot of directional indecision I think. Because of the LSHs and LSLs since November I will be waiting to see what happens if/when it gets down to 0.8640 major S.

It is amazing how charts from different feeds vary!
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  • #10,122
  • Feb 19, 2010 9:10am Feb 19, 2010 9:10am
Quoting BaliuxXx
It retraiced from weekly's 61 fibo and minor S/R. I think I willl be watching PA about 0.8830 to go long. Negative element, that weekly and monthly charts are making LL's and LH's in short term. But overal the trend is still up.
You missed the point.

Look closely how AUDUSD makes each swing high
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,123
  • Feb 19, 2010 10:30am Feb 19, 2010 10:30am
Quoting strat
You missed the point.

Look closely how AUDUSD makes each swing high
Last 3 swings, LH, LL, LH

Price at .8830 will be below the 20 and 50 = No going long

Will be watching for PA to go short once it closes below .8800 and DSRI

Odds are it won't make it back up to the channel top this time. I could be wrong of course but that trade isn't for me. Too many things saying not to.

-m
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  • #10,124
  • Feb 19, 2010 11:40am Feb 19, 2010 11:40am
Quoting mstandifer
Last 3 swings, LH, LL, LH

Price at .8830 will be below the 20 and 50 = No going long

Will be watching for PA to go short once it closes below .8800 and DSRI

Odds are it won't make it back up to the channel top this time. I could be wrong of course but that trade isn't for me. Too many things saying not to.

-m
thanks mstander for explanation.
  • #10,125
  • Edited 12:01pm Feb 19, 2010 11:51am | Edited 12:01pm
Why excatly are we writing off AUDUSD? Was this market supposed to go into orbit at the same pace? I see the point, but, indeed, I am a buyer, at least through 9200

You make the weekly argument perfectly, but why is it time for the monthly trend to reverse, Dr. Joe?
  • #10,126
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:28pm Feb 19, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Alexandra
Why excatly are we writing off AUDUSD? Was this market supposed to go into orbit at the same pace? I see the point, but, indeed, I am a buyer, at least through 9200

You make the weekly argument perfectly, but why is it time for the monthly trend to reverse, Dr. Joe?
Alas! My betters have found me out. I'll do my best here.

The monthly shows that the current swing has yet to be confirmed (this month is still open). If Dr. Joe were investing, he'd still be a buyer. Further more, price remains above the 20 and .8800 with last months bearish candle control broken so it's open to interpretation. Should this month finish where it lies it has the appearance of a wobble on it's way back up. It's at support after all.

My crystal ball is only of the toy store magic 8 ball variety at this juncture, so I'll cry pardon if I'm far from the post.

Would that monthly interpretation mean that you wouldn't consider anything other than ATM shorts until you had a monthly close below .8000 with retest and rejection of .8800 or is it that you consider the weekly lower channel support still valid?

-m
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  • #10,127
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:21pm Feb 19, 2010 3:21pm
This chart is from the S&P500. Alexandra made out like a bandit but I allowed my old ways of trading the S&P to get in the way. Can you tell me if I have the correct way I should have looked at this.

1 - A beautiful hammer at support. Buy what you will.
2 - A down day but still within the hammer and not an indication to sell. Sellers couldn't take out the low of the previous day.
3 - Buyers pushed price above yesterday's high which was above the high of the hammer. Even though the bar is a neutral bar there's no indication to sell.
4 - A spinning top and a sign of pause or indecision. Almost an IB and even though slightly bearish, still not an indication to sell. Move stop to BE.
5 - A BUEB that broke DSRI. Staying in the trade or add if you're Alexandra.
6 - A spinning top and an IB. Move stop a point below IB.
7 - Gap up and a bullish day and a close above root trend. Stay in and add another if your Alexandra.
8 - Small bullish bar and at congestion. No reason to exit but pull stop up.
9 - Another bullish day. Still long and in the trade.
10 - Another bullish day but a neutral bar at the top of congestion. Pull stop up to 1 point below today's bar.

Is that the way to see this one?

-m
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  • #10,128
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:43pm Feb 19, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting mstandifer
Last 3 swings, LH, LL, LH

Price at .8830 will be below the 20 and 50 = No going long

Will be watching for PA to go short once it closes below .8800 and DSRI

Odds are it won't make it back up to the channel top this time. I could be wrong of course but that trade isn't for me. Too many things saying not to.

-m
I am not ready to say we have stopped going up. Price yesterday and today is contained in Tuesday's marabuzo.

Strat us right about Aussie and how close the tops and bottoms are together. She made this pattern the whole month of last June although smaller scale (not such wide swings) and formed a bull flag that worked really well.
Here is my view of AUD
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  • #10,129
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:54pm Feb 19, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting elitejets
I am not ready to say we have stopped going up. Price yesterday and today is contained in Tuesday's marabuzo.

Strat us right about Aussie and how close the tops and bottoms are together. She made this pattern the whole month of last June although smaller scale (not such wide swings) and formed a bull flag that worked really well.
Here is my view of AUD
I see your marabuzo holding and becoming one of Strat's wobbles. What causes me pause is the congestion holding it down at .9000. If it closes above that, then I'm seeing eye to eye with you for Alexandra's .9200 ish. But I'm still too low on the pole to go long at this juncture.

Are you trading the LR channel range or are you using regular SR?
  • #10,130
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:05pm Feb 19, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting mstandifer
I see your marabuzo holding and becoming one of Strat's wobbles. What causes me pause is the congestion holding it down at .9000. If it closes above that, then I'm seeing eye to eye with you for Alexandra's .9200 ish. But I'm still too low on the pole to go long at this juncture.

Are you trading the LR channel range or are you using regular SR?
I trade regular SR and hope it coincides with a trendline, channel, fib level and any other supporting factors.
Aussie likes that 76.4 fib number best of all.
  • #10,131
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:38pm Feb 19, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting mstandifer
This chart is from the S&P500....
Since I donated a big chunk of my trading account to the S&P and emini S&P while trading futures, I must admit to being a little wary of this thing but nevertheless, just trading it as a technical chart of anything:

1 – That huge move down from the middle of January to the first week in February was very powerful and I would want this hammer to be sat on a very strong and solid support BEFORE doing anything. So, assuming 1 is at support, Buy above the hammer with SL below the low.

The first resistance is at line “a” so I would expect some reaction there. If I was trading multiple contracts, I would TP one lot at that line.

2 – Is what I would expect – a reaction to line “a”. I would move my SL under this bar low.

3 – I would have TP on one lot and this bar would have me worried as the buyers were firmly rejected.

4 – More worry as the buyers could not get above immediate resistance BUT neither could the sellers push it lower so hang in there.

5 – This showed the buyers have got control as it is a strong BUEB pushing through that immediate resistance. Since we have now created a new swing low, I would move my SL to below your red line assuming it is support.

6 – The doji cross IB is just a nothing bar (pause) so would not do anything about it.

7 – The strong bull bar would make me think the buyers are going for the next resistance, line “b”, so I would add a buy above this bar with TP for another lot at line “b”. I would move my SL to just below line “a”.

8 – This bar is expected after such a strong bar the previous day.

9 – My TP would probably be hit.

10 – Tells me the buyers are beginning to feel the resistance probably from line “c” so I would TP another lot at line “c”. Wanting to protect profit but still give the trade room to breathe, I would move my SL to below bar 8 (3 bar stop).

Hope this helps.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,132
  • Edited 5:06pm Feb 19, 2010 4:59pm | Edited 5:06pm
So, a BEOB at R and 1.27 FE on the Worker
Two Hanging Men at R on the Boss
And a small body bar at R, 20 and 38.2% on the Big Boss

PRICE is making HHs and HLs so.............................................
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,133
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:32pm Feb 19, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting mstandifer
This chart is from the S&P500. Alexandra made out like a bandit but I allowed my old ways of trading the S&P to get in the way. Can you tell me if I have the correct way I should have looked at this.

1 - A beautiful hammer at support. Buy what you will.
2 - A down day but still within the hammer and not an indication to sell. Sellers couldn't take out the low of the previous day.
3 - Buyers pushed price above yesterday's high which was above the high of the hammer. Even though the bar is a neutral bar there's no indication to sell.
4 - A spinning...

If I might intercede......that was a serious scare in a scary market. If one is going to buy a price rejection such as that, one has to be prepared for it to re-test the rejection point or else bail out at his/her acceptable level. You outline it well above, but, at the time, we ere both a bit nervous (biting the nails if I recall corectly). It tests the nerves, and as I said at the time, there was nothing wrong with what you did. My higher risk tolerance paid off on that one, but it also allowed me to give back some EURUSD profit this week. In the end, if one has a statement bar like that, over time the profits will amass if one forgets the cash amount and goes solely by the chart points. Avoidancve of over-leveraging is key to this approach though. Again, in my opinion, your trade was the mark of a winner - you avoided the loss. There will be many more profits to come with that approach in a different climate.
  • #10,134
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:20pm Feb 19, 2010 7:20pm
thank you for the welcome!

first, i would like to apologize for the delay, i was out of town and also took a break from trading - so i didn't have time for a serious reply.

second, regarding my "intruding": i don't want to divert the main focus from PA to whatever else (i.e., my other "stuff") so i think just a couple of posts per week should be enough (the less, the merrier).

that being said, i need to think if i am able to keep things brief and at the same time relevant and interesting - main focus should be on PA, not on this.

will be back soon. enjoy the weekend - !

Quoting strat
Scrat, thank you for your post and you are always welcome to post your “spicings”....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #10,135
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:09pm Feb 19, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting strat
Since I donated a big chunk of my trading account to the S&P and emini S&P while trading futures, I must admit to being a little wary of this thing but nevertheless, just trading it as a technical chart of anything:

Hope this helps.
Very much. This is what I was looking for. Thank you.
  • #10,136
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:10pm Feb 19, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting strat
So, a BEOB at R and 1.27 FE on the Worker
Two Hanging Men at R on the Boss
And a small body bar at R, 20 and 38.2% on the Big Boss

PRICE is making HHs and HLs so.............................................
The big boss, which tells everyone else what to do has made a HL but not a HH. It is in a wedge currently and at 3 confluent resistances.

The boss, taking it's orders from the big boss has made a strong move above both MA's but still below resistance. However the 2 spinning tops are an indication that the weekly uptrend is still intact and this is where a weekly wobble would occur.

The worker has just hit R and made a BEOB (I don't know what 1.27 FE means). If price is making HH and HL you sure don't want to short it. Also, price is above both MAs and they show momentum increasing.

Assuming this is in context of a Stress Free Trade:

We do nothing. The Worker is not in agreement with, The Big Boss and Boss. If you short it you are going daily counter trend and there is no PA to go long.

The demo account side of me says look for PA to go long above 1.8700 with a TP at 1.2700ish.
  • #10,137
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:10pm Feb 19, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting Alexandra
If I might intercede......that was a serious scare in a scary market. If one is going to buy a price rejection such as that, one has to be prepared for it to re-test the rejection point or else bail out at his/her acceptable level. You outline it well above, but, at the time, we ere both a bit nervous (biting the nails if I recall corectly). It tests the nerves, and as I said at the time, there was nothing wrong with what you did. My higher risk tolerance paid off on that one, but it also allowed me to give back some EURUSD profit this week. In...
Noted. Thank you.

The nails are growing back though
  • #10,138
  • Feb 19, 2010 9:40pm Feb 19, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting strat
So, a BEOB at R and 1.27 FE on the Worker
Two Hanging Men at R on the Boss
And a small body bar at R, 20 and 38.2% on the Big Boss

PRICE is making HHs and HLs so.............................................
I wouldn't touch this pair just yet. I can see it breaking today's low next week but stalling around 1.06 to 1.0650. Just not stress free for ME just ME. I do see a possible ATM trade shorting the loonie though. Again, for ME and where I am on the path, not stress free enough.

I'm really not in the mood to baby sit trades. I want be able to define a trend, pull the trigger with confidence, and then let the Queen do her thing . . . come on euro and pounder show your true intentions . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,139
  • Edited 4:00am Feb 20, 2010 3:53am | Edited 4:00am
Hi Strat
I hope you wont mind me posting this short video - a few gems in here.
When he talks about practicing your skill - it reminded me of what you are always telling us - practice until you can hang from the brooklyn bridge by your toes - then go & practice some more.....


Inserted Video
  • #10,140
  • Feb 20, 2010 5:08am Feb 20, 2010 5:08am
Quoting Yebisu
Hi Strat
I hope you wont mind me posting this short video - a few gems in here.
When he talks about practicing your skill - it reminded me of what you are always telling us - practice until you can hang from the brooklyn bridge by your toes - then go & practice some more.....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLN2k...layer_embedded
This is very inspirational. Well worth taking the time to watch. Thank you for sharing it with us.
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