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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,961
  • Feb 19, 2010 1:12am Feb 19, 2010 1:12am
Quoting xeneric
Thanks BenStevo. Would appreciate seeing any trades that you make using the triangle. Please post them.
Hi Xeneric,
This is going back a ways but I haven't got around to posting any of these trades. Here's an after-the-fact one on G/U that I sold into yesterday.

I know it’s not exactly part of the 4hr MACD, but to me it’s still part of the market rhythm and so if it doesn’t come with a distinct MACD signal that’s not a problem. What I know is that it rarely fails (like my other favorite setup that Phillip introduced – the 3 sisters), and the setup repeats itself enough to include it in my trading strategy. Best of all it’s nice and easy to spot. If someone else can use it to their advantage then that is what it’s about.

Details are in the attached images. 1st image shows entry which is on the last candle shown on the chart. Wait for a break to one side of the triangle (especially nice if the false break opposes direction of recent trend) and then watch out for price to drop / rise and close back on the other side.
Stops are nice and simple – just put them 10 – 15 pips above the centre of consolidation area (this is a horizontal line that I just eye up – not necessarily in the centre of the triangle). I know it can feel like your stop is a bit exposed and hanging in the middle of nowhere, but the centre of consolidation is a hard area to break back up through.
My TP1 was near base of recent consolidation. TP 2 set based on what I saw happening on Daily charts as possible support.

Edit: I also like these setups because the SL is nice and tight but you usually get a good move following a break from price consolidation, so R:R is usually well over 1:1
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  • #21,962
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:42am Feb 19, 2010 2:42am
iI use MACD trading strategy for reference, as far it help me very much making dessicion..this is my opinion that i'm using right now. MACD 4H 8,17,9 on GBPJPY

hope you can share your knowledge.
thanks
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  • #21,963
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:57am Feb 19, 2010 5:57am
Quoting BenStevo
Hi Xeneric,
This is going back a ways but I haven't got around to posting any of these trades. Here's an after-the-fact one on G/U that I sold into yesterday.
.....
Thanks Ben, very clear explanation. It's 2nd/3rd time I see the "three sisters" on this thread: I'll take a more indeep look at this analisys.

Edit: maybe something similar is happening on USD/JPY (4h TF) ?

Cheers,
Andy
Attached Image
  • #21,964
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:56am Feb 19, 2010 6:56am
Something very interesting on weekly TF for those that look that far ahead...
Weekly candle still has a few hours to close, but unless something drastic happens, the candle will print as a nice bullish engulfing.
What I like about the setup is that its a TC long (not quite on the MACD ... you might call if more of a BOZ from memory? But from general price rhythm perspective everything is in place: price moves up through 21 and then returns back to it - or a bit below is ok - and then moves on up to 89) following divergency. When you add divergency to the mix it boosts your odds of success.
Target level is around 97.00 level which is where 89 is resting (all on weekly TF), although I don't have it shown on my chart.
It doesn't happen all the time, but when there is a good setup like this on a larger TF, IF prices drop back down towards the signal / signal cluster lows before heading towards their upside target then you can get in a boost your R:R BIG time. I am a buyer around 89.40 / 89.60 area, with stops beneath the weekly lows (88.50ish) and 97 ish target.

PS - if this is getting too far away from the 4hr MACD method I won't post this sort of thing, but the larger TFs work in just the same as 4hr, only they hold more weight. Only difference is getting in on a retrace and keep your stops where they need to be set based on the weekly.
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  • #21,965
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:13am Feb 19, 2010 7:13am
Good Morning All,

So just to update everyone - I am still watching the thread daily and have been replying to emails / private messages & skype as I felt the thread was getting abit over crowded.

I have just uploaded the trade review of the TC signal which I took on the 17/02/2010 which I hope teaches you guys the importance of only taking signals when they are in conjunction with other western technicals.

Entry: 1.5763
Exit: 1.5372
+ 391 pips

Inserted Video


As always please rate and comment on the video as it helps others learn.

Cheers WG
  • #21,966
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:39pm Feb 19, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting BenStevo
Hi Xeneric,
This is going back a ways but I haven't got around to posting any of these trades. Here's an after-the-fact one on G/U that I sold into yesterday.

[font=Verdana][size=3]I know it’s not exactly part of the 4hr MACD, but to me it’s still part of the market rhythm and so if it doesn’t come with a distinct MACD signal that’s not a problem. What I know is that it rarely fails (like my other favorite setup that Phillip introduced – the 3 sisters), and the setup repeats...
Thanks BenStevo. Excellent explanation.
  • #21,967
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:59pm Feb 19, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting BenStevo
PS - if this is getting too far away from the 4hr MACD method I won't post this sort of thing, but the larger TFs work in just the same as 4hr, only they hold more weight. Only difference is getting in on a retrace and keep your stops where they need to be set based on the weekly.
Please post more. This thread is on market rhythm which is what you are posting about and not so much on the 4 hr macd. IMO this thread should be about daily and weekly rhythm too.
  • #21,968
  • Edited 7:26pm Feb 19, 2010 7:10pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting andy1969
Thanks Ben, very clear explanation. It's 2nd/3rd time I see the "three sisters" on this thread: I'll take a more indeep look at this analisys.

Edit: maybe something similar is happening on USD/JPY (4h TF) ?

Cheers,
Andy
Hi Andy

I can see what you mean. The pattern is certainly there but I am going to to agree with BenStevo on this one for the following reasons.

UJ daily is showing a nice inverted head and shoulders. Right now UJ is facing some resistance at the neckline but it won't be long until there is a breakthrough. On the weekly it is showing a divergence starting from the end of 2008.
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  • #21,969
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:52am Feb 20, 2010 1:52am
2 trade I took on USDJPY, thanks goodness for my trade management, I got b/e for both, the second trade if i'm around the computer i did have to manage it better with a little profit...
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Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #21,970
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:58am Feb 20, 2010 1:58am
A little profit with this trade, still the trade Management help me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #21,971
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:01am Feb 20, 2010 2:01am
Quoting goldtrader
Short Signal at RE... 1st time i participate in this thread, so trade with half of normal position
It happened as planed...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #21,972
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:11am Feb 20, 2010 2:11am
This trade is tough, i think i'm just luck with this trade, next time i will not be easy with it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #21,973
  • Feb 20, 2010 5:34am Feb 20, 2010 5:34am
Quoting xeneric
Hi Andy
...
UJ daily is showing a nice inverted head and shoulders. Right now UJ is facing some resistance at the neckline but it won't be long until there is a breakthrough. On the weekly it is showing a divergence starting from the end of 2008.
Yes, now I can see that.
many tx
  • #21,974
  • Edited Feb 21, 2010 10:22am Feb 20, 2010 11:28am | Edited Feb 21, 2010 10:22am
Here was my exit strategy on my GBP/USD. I got some nice pips, but when I compare mine to WG's it was small. I really was looking for it to go to the 100% retracement or the 121%, but here's what happened. For those who are unfamiliar with this animal, it is a chicken
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  • #21,975
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:59pm Feb 20, 2010 4:59pm
Well guys,I have developed one money management system,actually most of the part of this spreadsheet is modified from Phillip Nel,i forgot which posted it was,probably some previous pages.Then i changed something inside,make most of the things automatically,it will auto calculate your R/R,gain/loss,and etc.

Hmm,well,basically this is just a simple P/L Sheet to provide yourself to have a better way to record your money management.I still have to improve with this spreadsheet,however,i do hope you guys to help me as well,to find out if there is any wrong or you can solve it,please share to everyone.

I'll teach you how to use this spreadsheet:
1.you may see like Date,Lots,Action,etc,with BLUE color,is that you have to manual edit it,like the date,lots u entry,but the pair you may choose from a list which i created.However,there is one pair missing,NZDUSD,so you may have to entry it by yourself or you can copy and paste from my sample there.

2.ORANGE column are those you DO NOT NEED TO FILL IT BY YOURSELF,like Gain/Loss,R:R..it will automatically calculate your gain/loss.

3.There is one thing i cant change and i don know how to do it,is that ,in the Gain/Loss column,when you choose Buy in a single pair,you may find that it comes out a red/orange,which opposite your gaining/losing pips number,that is because you have to ADD/DELETE one negative "-" in front of the formula,then it will change from - to +,red to orange.

4.Close Price can automatically track the current closing price, which i link from one website,i forgot which website is it already,sorry about that.After you have really close the price,you have to MANUAL fill in the close price column,to complete the whole trade.The reason i did this is because i personally like to enter the data into this excel BEFORE or AT the time i entry a trade,that provides me a clearly R/R reward and i will not forget to type it in after close the trade.

Hmm,once again,this spreadsheet is just provide you guys to have an easy way to manage your R/R and manage your money,like how many % you have gain or loss,etc.

You may know how to use this excel file,because it's quite easy to use.

Please share to us if you can modify this better.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 213 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls trading plan 1.xls   95 KB | 673 downloads
  • #21,976
  • Edited 7:15pm Feb 20, 2010 6:39pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting Morelands
Here was my exit strategy on my GBP/USD. I got some nice pips, but when I compare mine to WG's it was small. I really was looking for it to go to the 100% retracement or the 123%, but here's what happened. For those who are unfamiliar with this animal, it is a chicken
Don't beat yourself up like that. From what I could see it was a carefully planned out and executed trade. If you planned the trade and traded the plan like you did, then you were successful. Next time you will do better. You have made a lot of progress on this strategy already We can't all trade like WG even though we would like to.
  • #21,977
  • Feb 20, 2010 6:53pm Feb 20, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting booyu
Well guys,I have developed one money management system,actually most of the part of this spreadsheet is modified from Phillip Nel,i forgot which posted it was,probably some previous pages.Then i changed something inside,make most of the things automatically,it will auto calculate your R/R,gain/loss,and etc.

Hmm,well,basically this is just a simple P/L Sheet to provide yourself to have a better way to record your money management.I still have to improve with this spreadsheet,however,i do hope you guys to help me as well,to find out if there is...
Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet. I will try it out.
  • #21,978
  • Feb 20, 2010 9:26pm Feb 20, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting xeneric
Don't beat yourself up like that. From what I could see it was a carefully planned out and executed trade. If you planned the trade and traded the plan like you did, then you were successful. Next time you will do better. You have made a lot of progress on this strategy already We can't all trade like WG even though we would like to.
No, I'm not that upset. I know with more time, studying, and trading my confidence will grow and my trading will improve. This year has been good to me so far. I was just having a little fun. I do take this very seriously, but the abililty to make a little fun of yourself at times is O.K too. Thanks for the pep talk though. Good to see you back
Raymond
  • #21,979
  • Edited 6:25am Feb 21, 2010 2:01am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting andy1969
Yes, now I can see that.
many tx
Hi Andy,

On the other hand UJ is at resistance right now and if we are lucky and it falls to support at around 90 or 89 level then some of us will be able to go long with good R/R. We'll have to wait and see.
  • #21,980
  • Feb 21, 2010 2:05am Feb 21, 2010 2:05am
Quoting Morelands
I was just having a little fun. Raymond
I know. Just wanted to point out that you have come a long way already.
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