For newbies one of the best ways to use the COT is simply to look at the open interest data - possibly over a period of 2 years & relate that to the spot market chart. http://www.cot-report.com explains in more detail. Hope this helps.
Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
- #243
- Feb 19, 2010 7:03am Feb 19, 2010 7:03am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
G'day patience,
yesterday when I saw the news release , I placed some separate 1-lot trades on short A/U and long U/C , collectively 14 lots- the max that I could tolerate for 50 pips negative each as SL and 20% drawdown-
I shouldnt be mad as I collect total 600 pips overall -but I made a huge mistake betting on A/U and U/C , instead I should have bet on E/U or G/U-
Aussie and Loonie are so strong even with USDX soaring they are not losing much ground
I'm sure a lot of traders got whiplashed and wasted yesterday. Looking back at the charts it made me dizzy. Word on the street is to buy USD/JPY. I'd like to see how the Chinese traders react to both the US and Chinese tightening of liquidity before I jump on that boat. It's not one of my favourite pairs to trade because I never seem to get it right. And then I hear that Obama is handing out over a billion dollars to states that have had property price declines of more than 20% like Vegas and California and some others. Huh?The AUD is just a stayer isn't it. I thought Glenn Stevens speech last night was quite hawkish as well. I can't be bothered with this chop though so I'm going to do something constructive.
Tiger Woods is coming out of hiding today and making a speech. That might help US retail sales in golf clubs - he, he, he - naughty boy.
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #244
- Feb 19, 2010 7:14am Feb 19, 2010 7:14am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
hi Patience,
Do you have any positions open?
esp in EUR and cable?
thanks
GBP should re-test breakdown point though (like Shahab has charted). The news is so dire over here every day that I can't face buying GBP. Just wondering how long it's going to take before the market turns it's attention to Britain and starts punishing the Great British Pound
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #246
- Edited 4:16pm Feb 19, 2010 4:02pm | Edited 4:16pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #247
- Feb 19, 2010 4:03pm Feb 19, 2010 4:03pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,685 Posts
BTC Return This Year:
na
- #256
- Feb 20, 2010 6:42am Feb 20, 2010 6:42am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Since I said I was going to give up on AUD and short E/U rallies instead I thought I better take a proper look at the chart and this is what I see. 61.8% fib hit on daily, classic bullish divergence and there is even a doji on the weekly 
(not to mention the record short contracts on EUR from COT)
(not to mention the record short contracts on EUR from COT) Nothing worth having is easy.
- #258
- Edited 7:07am Feb 20, 2010 6:55am | Edited 7:07am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Since I said I was going to give up on AUD and short E/U rallies instead I thought I better take a proper look at the chart and this is what I see. 61.8% fib hit on daily, classic bullish divergence and there is even a doji on the weekly
everything is there to give us a correction lower,
IMO, the safest bet on USD weakness for this week is NZDUSD, Kiwi is the best out there to go long
we have an awkward ending diagonal on E/U and U/Chf
- #260
- Feb 20, 2010 7:05am Feb 20, 2010 7:05am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
G'day patience,
everything is there to give us a correction higher,
IMO, the safest bet on USD weakness for this week is NZDUSD, Kiwi is the best out there to go long
we have an awkward ending diagonal on E/U and U/Chf
Same sort of picture on USDX - classic bearish divergence on daily with doji on weekly. We had 7-8 weeks of chop in this area on the way down but that was over the Summer months. I'll take a look at Kiwi - haven't traded that for a while.
Nothing worth having is easy.