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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,421
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:54am Feb 19, 2010 3:54am
Quoting bertie123
Hi all
The problem I see for us newbiesless experienced traders is that if we are waiting most of the time for only A+ setups, which are rare, then how do we get the experience we crave? Its a bit of a conundrum is it not?...
Hello berti!
if i may...

discipline & patience are a big part of 'experience'.

when u are not trading u are building up your discipline & patience 'deposit account'. at the same time ,u are preserving your account (demo or real).
when u are not trading u can also use your free time to read & review post, videos, charts, doing this boosts your confidence in the method at hand; confidence adds up to your 'experience' too.

very good question, btw
  • #55,422
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:01am Feb 19, 2010 4:01am
Question:

The fed rate yesterday, and nfp on the first friday of each month, produce spikes in the charts most of the time. What do you do with them if they create trade signals? Take the trade? Or regard them as false signals and stay out?

Take the fed rate yesterday for instance. It produced several outside bars on H4 and even some on D1. Now let's assume for a minute that the outside bars were formed on what would be considered good locations. Would you trade them or not?

I can imagine that trading from D1 charts, you would ignore the news completely and if the PA for that day happens to give a signal, you just take it.

As for trading from H4, the fed's rate decision took place during what I would call 'low-liquid' market hours, i.e., not during the european session or first hours of the new york session, so I wouldn't trade from H4 during those hours anyhow, but nfp on the other hand does come out during the most liquid time of the day. What do you do then, if the PA is hinting to a setup and the location is good?

Thanks.

Boy
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #55,423
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:06am Feb 19, 2010 4:06am
Quoting Dhb
Question:

The fed rate yesterday, and nfp on the first friday of each month, produce spikes in the charts most of the time. What do you do with them if they create trade signals? Take the trade? Or regard them as false signals and stay out?...
we get this question often.
i'll let u read Sir mbqb11's recent posts (here & here) & decide for yourself.

Quote
....What do you do then, if the PA is hinting to a setup and the location is good?...
sometimes/often, PA hints of the price direction many minutes, hours, days, prior a news release.


if u are fairly new to trading &/or reading price action, i highly suggest u avoid trading the news.
  • #55,424
  • Edited 6:58am Feb 19, 2010 4:17am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting PippingMama

Do you like the 2 day false breakout on the GBPUSD?

I saw this kind of pattern happen over and over, but never have a chance to pull the trigger on my live account.
Hey PM,

I didn't pull the trigger on this but I was watching and let me give you my take with a couple of charts.

Firstly on the daily you can see GU broke out of the range it's been in for months. I had the bottom of that range marked as 1.58.

Then on the 4H it produced a bearish flag with two opportunities to go get in. The 4H double inside bar (Dale's Double) at the retest of the 1.58 level, and then the pinbar that was the breakout an retest of the bearish flag itself.

I am still in testing mode with double inside bars so I didn't go for it, and with the second the Big Round Number of 1.55 and low of the bearish flag were close so I stayed off. But they both worked out well and they sure make for a clean pretty chart..... Playing both would have net you about 7R and counting. Who needs touch trades eh?...

This stuff really does work IF we wait for the good locations.

Best,

Aaron

EDIT: Oops, I forgot to look at that chart to closely. That isn't a Dale's Double at all but a plain ole inside bar. So no signal. The breakout/pullback is still valid though. That'l teach me to post while I am still waing up.... Thanks SC for pointing that out.
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  • #55,425
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:22am Feb 19, 2010 5:22am
Quoting TiaForex
Hey PM,
....
Then on the 4H it produced a bearish flag with two opportunities to go get in. The 4H double inside bar (Dale's Double) at the retest of the 1.58 level, ....
Hey Aaron,
i double checked the charts.. somehow i cant see Dale's doubles (double inside bars). [i only see 1 IB]
perhaps u included the current bar in the count (of inside bars)?
from what i know, to be a double IB, the second (inner & smaller) IB should already be formed & the breaking bar would be the fourth (current unformed/unclosed) bar.

i dug up to reconfirm & here's a chart from Sir Dale himself.
  • #55,426
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:38am Feb 19, 2010 5:38am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hey Aaron,
i double checked the charts.. somehow i cant see Dale's doubles (double inside bars). [i only see 1 IB]
perhaps u included the current bar in the count (of inside bars)?
from what i know, to be a double IB, the second (inner & smaller) IB should already be formed & the breaking bar would be the fourth (current unformed/unclosed) bar.

i dug up to reconfirm & here's a chart from Sir Dale himself.
Although it is an I4B
May all your fits be loose.
  • #55,427
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:39am Feb 19, 2010 5:39am
Quoting bertie123
hi all

the problem i see for us newbiesless experienced traders is that if we are waiting most of the time for only a+ setups, which are rare, then how do we get the experience we crave? Its a bit of a conundrum is it not? Suppose the answer is to follow as many pairs as you can which allows more opportunities. Btw have not taken any trades this week!

Berti
your waiting time should be your most productive. You will learn much more than if you were trading, just study the bars,
rac talks of " reading the tape " and this is probably the most important thing you must learn if you want to trade successfully.
Perhaps some of the senior traders might explain this futher ?????
Graham.
  • #55,428
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:51am Feb 19, 2010 5:51am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hey Aaron,
i double checked the charts.. somehow i cant see Dale's doubles (double inside bars). [i only see 1 IB]
perhaps u included the current bar in the count (of inside bars)?
from what i know, to be a double IB, the second (inner & smaller) IB should already be formed & the breaking bar would be the fourth (current unformed/unclosed) bar.

i dug up to reconfirm & here's a chart from Sir Dale himself.
You're darn tooting SC! My mistake. That'll teach me to post charts first thing after I wake up. I'll edit my original post.

It's not a Dale's Double so no signal. Ignore that and focus on the breakout/pullback bar.

Thanks....
  • #55,429
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:03am Feb 19, 2010 6:03am
Quoting Dhb
Question:

The fed rate yesterday, and nfp on the first friday of each month, produce spikes in the charts most of the time. What do you do with them if they create trade signals? Take the trade? Or regard them as false signals and stay out?

Take the fed rate yesterday for instance. It produced several outside bars on H4 and even some on D1. Now let's assume for a minute that the outside bars were formed on what would be considered good locations. Would you trade them or not?

I can imagine that trading from D1 charts, you would ignore the news...
Hi DHB,

Trade what you see.

I'll tell you the reason for it.... (and you don't have to have this sink in. The most important part IS the line "TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" )

I've been studying news "after affect" trading (for, what seems like, forever. lol). (...You don't need to bother knowing any more. Will just give information overload. lol ), ...but what I find is a pair can go in a TOTAL opposite direction to what the news indicates it should anyway, then hit a major PPZ or TL (or whatever strong confluence) then rebound and head in the direction that it SHOULD go after that news announcement. (This can happen because of the order book emptying at news time. If you were a bank , why would you risk leaving a big order in an unknown market??)

Pretty much what I'm saying is that if it gives a really good PA signal that has A VERY VALID LOCATION then go for it. In fact be MORE weary of LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION.

If the news creates , for example, a strong looking BEarish Outside Bar (BEOB) that stops at a sideways consolidation area dead on, then you know from your normal trading that you should be careful trading that anyway. (You would wait to see what happens at the consolidation area first, wouldn't you? ) ...The same thing happens at news time. But at the MOST strongest areas at times.

The end result is, for the most part, and at least as far as the odds go with your trading, just trade what you see. Just be EXTRA EXTRA EXTRA weary of your location on the chart. ...Well.... pretty much what you should be doing at normal times anyway , eh??

One more thing. Don't trade lower time frames unless you've done a LOT of watching.

Once again.... TRADE WHAT YOU SEE and you can pretty much ignore NEWS and simplify your trading life. Just be extra vigilant. (like always. haha)
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #55,430
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:27am Feb 19, 2010 6:27am
Quoting supremeChaos
we get this question often. (...)
Quoting bundyraider
Hi DHB,

Trade what you see. (...)
Thanks for sharing your thoughts fellas! Already suspected this would be the answer. Now I know for sure.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #55,431
  • Edited 7:08am Feb 19, 2010 6:57am | Edited 7:08am
I read the other replies on my message too. Some where constructive, others just insulting. But trading the 4 hours chart was by coincidence what i had in mind after i cut my loss yesterday after the intervention.

For those who don't know i am a rookie trader and experimenting with nickles and dymes. My theory is if you can get ritch with 2000 euro's you can get ritch with 200. I am just not risking 2000. My goal is not to get ritch fast but to get ritch certainly and with a optimal pace/risk ratio. To me this is a game not a business, no matter what others say how i should look at it. Its clear what the goal of the game is and when its game over.

I think that the usd/eur is going down simply because we are in a downtrend and i think the intervention probably made sure that it will go down without temporary technical recovery.

My trading strategy will be this:
- I will keep doing scalps from trendlines since i had success with this in the past only i will dramaticly lower the risk. I heard 2%/day = 8000%/year interest on interest.
- I will place tiny short orders at the higher pivot points each day or if they aren't reached, or higher spots in the 4h chart. where i place 0.01 lot short which is 1 cent / pip. I think the EURUSD will go to 1.30. but if it goes up i can handle it. If it goes down i earn 10 EUR / 0.01 lot / EURUSD cent. Which can add up to 100 euro or more.

Any constructive feedback is welcome
So 'buy a steak of you money because i have experience and you won't listen' comments are not.


Quoting artov
Good to see you in here

You don't need to pay for this thread at all. All information here is freely available because of the many generous members in this thread.

I didn't like this thread at all when I first read I need to be 3 months on demo and only a couple of trades a month. But I learned that it is necessary if you wan't to succeed in this business.

You might hate me for saying this, but remove your stochs and either MACD or RSI. Delete all those trendlines and channels, put a 4hr chart or higher TF in front of you and then...
  • #55,432
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:05am Feb 19, 2010 7:05am
Quoting bundyraider
...This one, on the other hand, is much better.
Hey Bundy , wasn't checking the forum so didn't see our post .
yea , this was a good trade , however the U/J candle didn't close the way it was so didn't enter , you're right , WAITING and Patience is the key to successful trading , especially when there's a formation that's about to happen , so you got any trades in the market ??!!
  • #55,433
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:10am Feb 19, 2010 7:10am
Quoting longshot_nl
I read the other replies on my message too. Some where constructive, others just insulting. But trading the 4 hours chart was by coincidence what i had in mind after i cut my loss yesterday after the intervention.

For those who don't know i am a rookie trader and experimenting with nickles and dymes. My theory is if you can get ritch with 2000 euro's you can get ritch with 200. My goal is not to get ritch fast but to get ritch certainly and with a optimal pace/risk ratio. To me this is a game not a business, no matter what others say how i should...
The problem here longshot is that this is the James16 chart thread and a particular method is taught here. Price action, at PPZs, with sound money management. You have every right to trade how you will, but if you are trading against the main principles of this thread then there is no real way that anyone can offer constructive criticism.

You may be better served in another thread, because the view of most people on the James16 chart thread will be that you're going about this all wrong. You're perfectly entitled to trade your own way of course, and if you pull off your 8000% goals then you will have achieved a rate of return that makes you the best trader in the world (better than anyone one Wall St, better than any retail trader). That might be an unrealistic goal.

But all anyone here can do is give you constructive criticism from the James16 style of trading. And because your trading bears no resemblance to that style of trading, it's difficult to know where to start.

I also see two conflicting messages in your posts. On the one hand you're saying that "I'm not going to do it like it was suggested in the first post" and "this is what I believe no matter how others say I should look at it", and then on the other hand you are asking for constructive criticism. So it's difficult to know what you mean or want.

I don't know that there is any constructive criticism that can be offered in this case. My constructive criticism would be to say 'Follow the requirements of the first post, trade the dailies while you find your feet, learn to identify price action bars and PPZs, and practise sensible money management.' My view of your current plan is that you will blow out your account very very soon.

But you've already said that no matter what anyone says you're going to ignore this. In that case I don't think this thread can help you.
  • #55,434
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:20am Feb 19, 2010 7:20am
Quoting benji533
Hey Mikey,

I got ya buddy.
I do not have much time right now. Hopefully tomorrow or at the weekend I will post for you a detailed post of all the trades I would consider in the "A" category for 2009, including management plan options (I have already done this for myself, so it won't be a problem going through it again for ya).

Ben
Ok I did not go through all possible pairs, and there are more A++ setups of the past year I won't post, but I have done my best to make you understand what we are looking for.

In general, for me A+++ trades mean A+++ bars at A+++ locations, and A+++ management skills.
You must first understand that A+ trades are different from one trader to another, based on the different management method they are using, account size, psych, and comfort zone. Not ALL my A+ trades, or jarroo's A+ trades would be Mike's A+ trades, simply because we are managing our trades different. When Mike's looks for an A++ trade, he takes into consideration that we would not always move his stop to BE at the first trouble area. Therefor, space is very critically important for him when he picks his trades. James16 and jarroo on the other hand, take only A++ trades as well, but by different criteria.

Below would be some of the daily trades of 2009, I would consider A++ trades, and the first trouble area marked.

First I thought going into details on how I would manage each trade, but I won't to it. I would leave it to you. But here are some notes...when trading trending markets, the idea is to hold longer term the trade. In counter trend trades, do not get too greedy, and setting target can be a good idea. In sideways marked, not getting greedy is again important, and a good idea would be going lower to 4h and trail stops with Mike's 2bar stop method there.
It is really hard for me to tell what I would be doing in the past if I took a certain trade, cause each trade is unique and different.

Let me know if you need anything else.
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  • #55,435
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:20am Feb 19, 2010 7:20am
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  • #55,436
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:21am Feb 19, 2010 7:21am
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  • #55,437
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:23am Feb 19, 2010 7:23am
You're a star Benji. What a great set of charts and what a terrific amount of work you did putting them together. Great great stuff!
  • #55,438
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:38am Feb 19, 2010 7:38am
Quoting TiaForex
You're a star Benji. What a great set of charts and what a terrific amount of work you did putting them together. Great great stuff!
lol, thanks buddy.
In the first place I thought I would just make a video which would be much more easier. But English isn't my strong side lol (speaking is no where like my writing. Never really needed to speak English here, but I guess one months in America would sort me out).

I really think, like you said, armed with these principals, and the right mindset, nothing can stop you. I only needed one shot of Jame16's "rants and charts" video to realize that whats going on in this thread is far from what he teaches. I lost direction too early, and without that video, I doubt I would find my way back.

Ben
  • #55,439
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:41am Feb 19, 2010 7:41am
n1 ahi
what do say about this 1? im already long...BE at 1.5192 T.P 1.54.
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Wellcome to the good life!
  • #55,440
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:43am Feb 19, 2010 7:43am
Quoting TiaForex
Agreed. Real money in meaningful amounts has a way of really focussing the attention.

Allow me to use your post to jump off into a general ramble Joel.

When Jim says 'Imagine what a 50 pip move on a large account can mean to you' he doesn't just mean the winners. Making 30 grand on 60 pip move is great. Losing 30 grand when it goes against you is awful. The larger the account gets, the more conservative you get. Both in trade selection and management. And your tolerance for drawdown decreases. Until then, it's tempting to just view it as a video...
Great post Aaron..

I can say it from experience. I was playing the 5min like a video game and was on my way to double my demo account. But when shifting to real money, man, that's a very different story. The runners I tended to hold, i just closed before they made their first real significant move. I saw a positive $$ on the table...and became emotional and greedy. The losers...They had no effect on me while trading demo. But losing real money, an amount that was a few hours of work for me, seeing it disappear just in less than 5 min, opened the door of fear, hesitancy, lack of confidence, and disappointment.


I was the one which argued that demo trading, like a video game, should be exactly the same with real money, regardless the account size. But of course, I had zero experience compered to now, which is still nothing.


You can't place a 30 grand position on the 5 min chart with a damn stop of 10 pips and treat it like a video game. No one in the world, (except of a 130 years old ding man with no family and no nothing in this world), can see his 30 grand disappear in 5 min, and not feel sick for the rest of the month.


So if this is a business, and we are plan to trade a huge account in the future, what is the reason for trading in a way you wouldn't on that future account. It will only ruin you. This current time is important for making us ready for the real thing, when that day comes.


Ben
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