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AUD/USD

  • #16,921
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:30pm Feb 18, 2010 6:30pm
Glen speaks was a positive one too isnt it? will it hold the aud from falling..waht dou you guys think?
  • #16,922
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:47pm Feb 18, 2010 6:47pm
some of the currencies are goin nuts today.

What was the news....

Dang!!!! go take a look at the USD this morning its on CRACK!! up up and AWAYYYYY
  • #16,923
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:53pm Feb 18, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting jesterx
some of the currencies are goin nuts today.

What was the news....

Dang!!!! go take a look at the USD this morning its on CRACK!! up up and AWAYYYYY

fed raised discount rate to 0.75%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...pZxuLUc4&pos=1
  • #16,924
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:49pm Feb 18, 2010 7:49pm
Just an observation:

Everyone had their charts and trends and stops. The move in the market was not based on support, resistance, fibs, candles, or anything technical.

In fact what moved the pair today was not even discussed on this forum, not even hinted at. It did not even enter into anyone's head.

I am interested on a discussion of how valuable the technical information is, and how it should be used.

I am an empirical skeptic, and I am listening to people on both sides of the argument.

Still short here from .8835, now down to .8821 after paying the rollover.
  • #16,925
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:54pm Feb 18, 2010 7:54pm
Made a nice 25 pips short. Do we think this is a bear flag emerging? Or are the price ranges perhaps too wide to qualify?
  • #16,926
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:56pm Feb 18, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting Leverage
Just an observation:

Everyone had their charts and trends and stops. The move in the market was not based on support, resistance, fibs, candles, or anything technical.

In fact what moved the pair today was not even discussed on this forum, not even hinted at. It did not even enter into anyone's head.

I am interested on a discussion of how valuable the technical information is, and how it should be used.

I am an empirical skeptic, and I am listening to people on both sides of the argument.

Still short here from .8835, now down to .8821...
Completely. Tech analysis is only useful for short term trades. Long-term you want fundamental insight.
  • #16,927
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:20pm Feb 18, 2010 8:20pm
it hit my trailing stop.. what was that for .. only on aud pair
  • #16,928
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:35pm Feb 18, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting Leverage
Just an observation:

Everyone had their charts and trends and stops. The move in the market was not based on support, resistance, fibs, candles, or anything technical.

In fact what moved the pair today was not even discussed on this forum, not even hinted at. It did not even enter into anyone's head.

I am interested on a discussion of how valuable the technical information is, and how it should be used.

I am an empirical skeptic, and I am listening to people on both sides of the argument.

Still short here from .8835, now down to .8821...
How's it going Leverage? Dude, you need some stops in those trades, you're setting yourself up. However, on your comment, there is an equal argument for both sides. However, I agree that in the short term, ALL ELSE EQUAL, techies are the best, but as time goes by, LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS become more and more important. We seem to forget that almost all fundies are already priced in and that only deviations move on fundamental news. The question is subjective. By subjecteive, I mean it depends on what time period you are trading in and your investment horizon.
  • #16,929
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:55pm Feb 18, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Leverage
Just an observation:

Everyone had their charts and trends and stops. The move in the market was not based on support, resistance, fibs, candles, or anything technical.
I would disagree. This is the channel I am using, and while it has been out of it's channel before, that doesn't mean that it won't continue to work.
Attached Image
  • #16,930
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:38pm Feb 18, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Clouds
I would disagree. This is the channel I am using, and while it has been out of it's channel before, that doesn't mean that it won't continue to work.
Attachment
I think he was referring to the violent reaction to the news we had earlier. Try predicting that with a moving average.
  • #16,931
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:41pm Feb 18, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting Squarepants
I think he was referring to the violent reaction to the news we had earlier. Try predicting that with a moving average.
More like sex and sugar reaction to the news
  • #16,932
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:49pm Feb 18, 2010 10:49pm
Right. I'm not saying TA won't work.

My argument for TA is that it only has to work long enough to make you rich. Let's say you'll blow up (or slowly leak if you trade small percentages of your portfolio) once every few thousand trades.

Well if you make a million dollars before you blow up, then you can put your strategy to rest and you're all set.

That's where I see the value in TA. For me the question is just if you can make a million before you blow up. Your strategy doesn't have to work for the rest of your life.
  • #16,933
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:53pm Feb 18, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting Leverage
Right. I'm not saying TA won't work.

My argument for TA is that it only has to work long enough to make you rich. Let's say you'll blow up (or slowly leak if you trade small percentages of your portfolio) once every few thousand trades.

Well if you make a million dollars before you blow up, then you can put your strategy to rest and you're all set.

That's where I see the value in TA. For me the question is just if you can make a million before you blow up. Your strategy doesn't have to work for the rest of your life.
i think it's much better to trade and not think about money. it's a job that u can get good at, but once money becomes and issue, then yep, you'll lose it all, cause of greed. just enjoy, try add new positions every once in while, manage trades, move stop losses to protect profits, or use targets, or whatever. but the point is to enjoy your work, not stress.
  • #16,934
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:22pm Feb 18, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting Clouds
More like sex and sugar reaction to the news
Now you are talkin'
  • #16,935
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:31pm Feb 18, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Leverage
Just an observation:

Everyone had their charts and trends and stops. The move in the market was not based on support, resistance, fibs, candles, or anything technical.

In fact what moved the pair today was not even discussed on this forum, not even hinted at....
and may i know why the USD is moving like this? actually i'm quite a fundamental trader, but sometime it just hard to connect betwen one news to another, thinking of what is the effect of an economic news. so i hope you can help me figure it what happen to the market today?
  • #16,936
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:39pm Feb 18, 2010 11:39pm
i think this what make the dollar move up and down :

"Now we wait and see what policy makers deliver us. Fear of the unknown has made many begin to lose some of this weeks risk appetite. Capital markets continue to wait for the transparent transcript from EU policy makers on what’s to be done in ‘times like these’. There is no precedent. Until then, despite the status quo, the dollar is a safer bet."

i take this article from market plus fx website.
  • #16,937
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:09am Feb 19, 2010 12:09am
I think economic improvement in last couple days for Aussie = AUD UP
US rate hike = AUD Down

therefore we have AUD in middle indecision with maybe go down more i dunno
  • #16,938
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:18am Feb 19, 2010 12:18am
Bernanke is worried USD will rally, as it would undo all of his hard work debasing the currency. Also obviously he wants to keep treasury rates low so that they can keep borrowing money for practically free. Why else would he tell everyone that the policy remains the same even as he pushes the hike lever for the discount rate?
  • #16,939
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:40am Feb 19, 2010 12:40am
Quoting Squarepants
Bernanke is worried USD will rally, as it would undo all of his hard work debasing the currency. Also obviously he wants to keep treasury rates low so that they can keep borrowing money for practically free. Why else would he tell everyone that the policy remains the same even as he pushes the hike lever for the discount rate?
to inform those in the banking sector. mortgage lenders, ect?
  • #16,940
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:42am Feb 19, 2010 12:42am
wondering if gbp/aud will stay in 1.73 - 1.83 forever, or break higher above 2
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