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  • #4,221
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:18pm Feb 18, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Good work. It is outright too dangerous for me. CUSTOS reasons are mine as well. EUR/AUD was like that this morning at LOB time...a 1, 2, 3...i didnt take it either...i dont like the "ugliness" of these charts.

Though i will say that AUDJPY breakout at l.o.b time is probably something i should have paid attention to. I missed that. Anyways.

More on EUR/AUD....i dumped my cargo for 200 pips, shorted from 1.5740 thinking i was clever...look where it is now.....hahahaha.

Yeah..finally, EUR/AUD reaches the final PT of pattern projection from the DAILY/H4 at 1.5060. Funny, i shorted this baby when it was at 1.5740, dumped the cargo quickly at +200pips thinking i was smart.

HAHAHAHA.

Lesson re-learned.
  • #4,222
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:21pm Feb 18, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting EntropyLad
AUD/USD TT long at 0.8900 will be good, baring any AUD news or USD news...and of course, if it takes at least TWO four hour candle to get there(0.8900) from 0.8950. Rules are rules. My preferred entry will be 0.8895.
yeah, here I would even want to see 3 candles, just to show that it's not a momentum - break - momentum situation, if you know what I mean. Could as well just fall through. That was quite a big candle. I am always a little cautious with those big candles wanting to retrace, a lot of times the trend is collapsing a little later.
  • #4,223
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:23pm Feb 18, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting Custos
I also like gbpusd, the level I like is marked by two light blue lines.
I dont understand...why that level?

UPDATE: Do you mean, a break under that level, pullback to retest those levels and downward continuations. Looking from the daily chart.
  • #4,224
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:23pm Feb 18, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Yeah..finally, EUR/AUD reaches the final PT of pattern projection from the DAILY/H4 at 1.5060. Funny, i shorted this baby when it was at 1.5740, dumped the cargo quickly at +200pips thinking i was smart.

HAHAHAHA.

Lesson re-learned.
well, that's still better than a 200 pip loss
  • #4,225
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:32pm Feb 18, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I dont understand...why that level?

UPDATE: Do you mean, a break under that level, pullback to retest those levels and downward continuations. Looking from the daily chart.
yeah, kind of calling it prematurely. First I want price to run further and then retest those leves. And I am looking at two time-frames here.
1. Daily chart as you mentioned, but running way further first.
2. hourly chart (which still should run down a bit). The swing I mean is in orange, but again I want it to run a bit further before returning, cause I want the S/R level to be between 50% and 61.8% fib. Right now it's just at 38.2% and kind of at the 50% level.

Do you understand what I mean?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1 18.2.2010.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #4,226
  • Edited 4:45pm Feb 18, 2010 4:33pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting Custos
man, the fed just raised rates. Getting into any trade right now is a little risky. I saw it hit the level, but didn't wanna get into that, cause of that fact.
I wasnt even at my desk when it hit that level. I was in the lab. Anyways, the NZD/USD TT entry at 0.6995 has been knocked out too.

There was no pre-announcement of the FED raising rates...it wasnt on the fundamental calendar, was it?

Oh yeah, +200 is better than -200. Unless i have those fuzzy math that can convert 100pips into 300pips. lol.

ON gbp/usd...YEAH, i see what you are saying. if any pullback at this moment,...my preference will be 1.56000 at 61%. bUT THE best setup will be a much further bearish below setting the levels to 1.5550

Did somebody here today took a TT USD/CAD short at 1.05000 level area? Good work. Another trade that i missed. Man, i hate when work interferes with my trading. I need to fire my boss.

OH well, we have a rectangular/triangular breakout on USD/CHF h4. Pullback to 1.0800 will be interesting.
  • #4,227
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:35pm Feb 18, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I wasnt even at my desk when it hit that level. I was in the lab. Anyways, the NZD/USD TT entry at 0.6995 has been knocked out too.

There was no pre-announcement of the FED raising rates...it wasnt on the fundamental calendar, was it?

Oh yeah, +200 is better than -200. Unless i have those fuzzy math that can convert 100pips into 300pips. lol.
No, no announcement whatsoever, I just saw it later in the wallstreet journal as an update. Shitty FED.
  • #4,228
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:48pm Feb 18, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I wasnt even at my desk when it hit that level. I was in the lab. Anyways, the NZD/USD TT entry at 0.6995 has been knocked out too.

There was no pre-announcement of the FED raising rates...it wasnt on the fundamental calendar, was it?

Oh yeah, +200 is better than -200. Unless i have those fuzzy math that can convert 100pips into 300pips. lol.

ON gbp/usd...YEAH, i see what you are saying. if any pullback at this moment,...my preference will be...
I also like usd/jpy 91.15 level. Coincides right now with 61.8%, hope price start retracing soon. Looking at hourly chart.
  • #4,229
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:52pm Feb 18, 2010 4:52pm
Quote
Originally Posted by finswin56 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I'm looking at the USD/JPY for a TT.
I don't like that it's breaking a TL right now, but I really like the 90.50 and 90.36 levels. By the time it gets there the ADR should be near its average.
Quote

Originally Posted by EntropyLad
It fits with my rules at 90.50. You have 61%, RN, S/R. and slanted...
.


Good call, FINSWINS. The daily you can clearly see the slanted trendline collapse i was talking about...it combines this excellently with a near perfect touch trade at 90.50
  • #4,230
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:55pm Feb 18, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Good call, FINSWINS. The daily you can clearly see the slanted trendline collapse i was talking about...it combines this excellently with a near perfect touch trade at 90.50
yeah, but it never reached 90.50. God, I think it was just 3 pips too high at 90.53, so didn't trigger my limit orders. Anyways, looking forward to new trades.
  • #4,231
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:56pm Feb 18, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Custos
I also like usd/jpy 91.15 level. Coincides right now with 61.8%, hope price start retracing soon. Looking at hourly chart.

USD/JPY?

USD/JPY is on bullish steriods, right now.

slanted trendline break on the daily towards the upside.

Prefect alignment of the SMA on the hourly. 61% fib level at 90.50. same as S/R level. same as RN....supported by trendline. etc. etc.

USD/JPY never reaches 90.50...true...it reaches what? 90.53? That wont be a problem if your regular spread on USD/jpy is generally around 2pips or less(right this moment...is it 1.1). And you plan on entering at +/- 5 pips off RN.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_tradi...ds/all_spreads

OANDA fracking rules.
  • #4,232
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:39pm Feb 18, 2010 8:39pm
So, I'm at work checking charts through the day and see the USD/JPY moving nicely through the BPC that I didn't "love"...
I check the charts again later and see the USD blowing up. Needless to say the rate hike caught me by surprise too.
My Gold long was stopped at BE, but I took a short on Silver at 16.18 before leaving. That is turning out nicely now.
Friday should be all kinds of fun.
  • #4,233
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:10pm Feb 18, 2010 9:10pm
Any comment about GBPJPY?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Feb. 19 11.07.gif Size: 13 KB
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #4,234
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:34pm Feb 18, 2010 10:34pm
Quoting EntropyLad
AUD/USD TT long at 0.8900 will be good, baring any AUD news or USD news...and of course, if it takes at least TWO four hour candle to get there(0.8900) from 0.8950. Rules are rules. My preferred entry will be 0.8895.
Well, the required TWO four-hour candles formed on AUD/USD before it hits 0.8900...entry was initiated at 0.8895 as written above. It went to a low of 0.8885, before turning in my direction. Already closed out the customary +20pips at 0.8915, current market price at 0.8935.

TT trade rrrraaaaawwwwkkkkssss.
  • #4,235
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:48pm Feb 18, 2010 10:48pm
You are getting pro at milking the TTs.... as Pip Dawg would say

Can you post the chart please...


Quoting EntropyLad
Well, the required TWO four-hour candles formed on AUD/USD before it hits 0.8900...entry was initiated at 0.8895 as written above. It went to a low of 0.8885, before turning in my direction. Already closed out the customary +20pips at 0.8915, current market price at 0.8935.

TT trade rrrraaaaawwwwkkkkssss.
  • #4,236
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:54pm Feb 18, 2010 10:54pm
Daily trend is down so is the H4 .... to me this appears to be Hector style setup ...are you looking for a TT on this one?
Quoting yunero
Any comment about GBPJPY?
  • #4,237
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:13pm Feb 18, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting MktScape
You are getting pro at milking the TTs.... as Pip Dawg would say

Can you post the chart please...

The AUD/USD chart is attached.

One thing i have noticed about the TT's is that they have the tendency to reverse at the next solid S/R which usually is +50pips away. I think in about 70% of the cases. Maybe i will structure it such that 50% at 1:1, 30% at 1:2, 10% at hector's 1st PT(swing low/high) and 10% for pattern projection PT.
OR
60% at 1:2, 30% at swing low/high, 10% at pattern projection.

Anyways, i have attached the AUD/USD chart below:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1266556379
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd tt.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #4,238
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:22pm Feb 18, 2010 11:22pm
Question for CUSTOS on GBP/JPY.

Take the daily chart on GBP/JPY. SHORT at 143.50, with 61% fib +/- 15pips away, S/R, etc, etc, is a TT point. DAILY CHART setup, 17th of feb, around 2pm london time.

At the same time, the H4 is broken to the upside, LONG at 141.00, with 50% fib level there, trendline support intersection if you draw it upward from the bottom, S/R level there, clear as day, etc etc....is a TT point. H4 CHART setup, 18th of feb, around 1pm london time.

Would you have taken both trades? Or choose the DAILY and ignore the H4?
  • #4,239
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:26pm Feb 18, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting MktScape
Daily trend is down so is the H4 .... to me this appears to be Hector style setup ...are you looking for a TT on this one?
No. Like you said the trend is down.. and the support has been tested many times.. it could break the support later. One more thing, GU is not on the same direction with GJ.. so i'm not really sure where GJ is heading.. better stay a side at this moment..
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #4,240
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:12am Feb 19, 2010 12:12am
Quoting yunero
No. Like you said the trend is down.. and the support has been tested many times.. it could break the support later. One more thing, GU is not on the same direction with GJ.. so i'm not really sure where GJ is heading.. better stay a side at this moment..

Hi Yunero,
good to hear you also share the sentiment that GJ is uncertain, I always seem to think so when not with GU on direction.
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