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  • #10,101
  • Feb 18, 2010 5:37pm Feb 18, 2010 5:37pm
Things are going to be getting interesting very soon.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,102
  • Feb 18, 2010 5:42pm Feb 18, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting Alexandra
You stole my post!

My crystal ball tells me that it will not hold....we shall see. The crystal ball doesn't count.....well...maybe a bit. Yes, the crystal ball has another name...the monthly chart.
I think I agree with you on USDJPY.

EURUSD has stopped on that big 61 fibo but it was interesting when it started to tank tonight that EUR went first, way ahead of the other pairs (check EURGBP / EURCHF) which suggests where the real money was going.
  • #10,103
  • Feb 18, 2010 5:47pm Feb 18, 2010 5:47pm
Bingo - buying dollars and selling yen...and (yes) buying some well placed Euro....may be the call for the well-hedged trader. I see your counter argument too though...your channels will be interesting.
  • #10,104
  • Feb 18, 2010 5:55pm Feb 18, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting strat
USDJPY

Draw a BOSS TL from 6/22/07 to 8/15/08 and project down.

Look at what is at 93.50

Always know what is ahead of you and keep one step in front - No Surprises.
This is what I have. I see 92.30 and 94.50 SRs and the TL from 2007 is at 92.30 for today (different data may give a different TL level). If it manages to break these both SRs, then we have a clear path until 102, IMO.
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  • #10,105
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:13pm Feb 18, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting Alexandra
Always looking for the next opportunity.....now that we have some USD prominence....it E/J telling us that the Fed has salvaged economic security? Is holding the weekly 61 fibo and a bullish weekly candle significant amid the EURUSD carnage? Shall I buy some equities?
I'm not too hopeful for that fibo level.
This is my monthly chart - three black crows: (time I put some more levels on, I know)
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  • #10,106
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:26pm Feb 18, 2010 6:26pm
It's an interesting argument.....I lmow your predisposed the other way. LOL - we better let the price show us the way.

Just to be clear though - I'm looking at monthly E/J ...not EURUSD. I'm locked into the argument that E/J is the economic barometer, it seems.
  • #10,107
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:38pm Feb 18, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting Alexandra
It's an interesting argument.....I lmow your predisposed the other way. LOL - we better let the price show us the way.

Just to be clear though - I'm looking at monthly E/J ...not EURUSD. I'm locked into the argument that E/J is the economic barometer, it seems.

yes, its a weird pattern, If i was short I would be chasing my profits down big time.

The USD is crazy today....and at a make or break point. Sort of in a upwards flag.
  • #10,108
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:43pm Feb 18, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting Alexandra
It's an interesting argument.....I lmow your predisposed the other way. LOL - we better let the price show us the way.

Just to be clear though - I'm looking at monthly E/J ...not EURUSD. I'm locked into the argument that E/J is the economic barometer, it seems.
Alex I have no track record of good fundamental judgement. I cannot shrug off the nagging feeling that something is not right (besides Greece). I am not trading my feeling but it is stopping me from trading the XXX/YEN pairs long. I don't "buy" the economic recovery and many people I work with haven't. I cannot because nothing has changed since the crisis. Until UJ can break that TL the BOJ better start printing last year, in my opinion.
  • #10,109
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:02pm Feb 18, 2010 7:02pm
With this new imbalance in interests rates. Do you think it will change the direction of the secular trend(s) in the short to medium term?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,110
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:06pm Feb 18, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting erikte279
With this new imbalance in interests rates. Do you think it will change the direction of the secular trend(s) in the short to medium term?
Thats the thing they haven't actually changed the main rate, just the discount window rate that they lend to banks overnight in an emergency. The market is taking it as a sign that even though the Fed has said "lower for longer" that might not be so.

For me this is a bit of an over-reaction tonight, but tomorrow is an options expiration day for equities and lately Friday's have been really crazy so who knows ...
  • #10,111
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:15pm Feb 18, 2010 7:15pm
Well it seems inevitable with all the good data coming out. I wish I could be the guy that knew of this stuff before it was released to the public. You gotta know that these people have brokerage accounts in their cousins uncles name making A KILLLING.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,112
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:25pm Feb 18, 2010 8:25pm
So since its a temporary rate we wont see it in the swap correct?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,113
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:10am Feb 19, 2010 12:10am
Quoting strat
Yes but look how AUDUSD makes its swing highs
It retraiced from weekly's 61 fibo and minor S/R. I think I willl be watching PA about 0.8830 to go long. Negative element, that weekly and monthly charts are making LL's and LH's in short term. But overal the trend is still up.
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  • #10,114
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:34am Feb 19, 2010 12:34am
To range or not to range will be the question
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  • #10,115
  • Feb 19, 2010 1:04am Feb 19, 2010 1:04am
Quoting elitejets
Thats the thing they haven't actually changed the main rate, just the discount window rate that they lend to banks overnight in an emergency. The market is taking it as a sign that even though the Fed has said "lower for longer" that might not be so.

For me this is a bit of an over-reaction tonight, but tomorrow is an options expiration day for equities and lately Friday's have been really crazy so who knows ...
Yes, I agree Nicola.

This is a clear signal that the Fed is withdrawing emergency measures. How far behind is the Fed Funds Rate?

Q2 or Q3 2010 maybe?

It was a bit of an over-reaction, but good for USD longs, so I don't mind.
-Razorjack
  • #10,116
  • Edited 1:37am Feb 19, 2010 1:27am | Edited 1:37am
Quoting Donadoney
Alex I have no track record of good fundamental judgement. I cannot shrug off the nagging feeling that something is not right (besides Greece). I am not trading my feeling but it is stopping me from trading the XXX/YEN pairs long. I don't "buy" the economic recovery and many people I work with haven't. I cannot because nothing has changed since the crisis. Until UJ can break that TL the BOJ better start printing last year, in my opinion.
I have a similar outlook.

The JPY crosses along with the USD pairs, with the exception of USDJPY, are in a correction phase over the medium term and I don't see them breaking to the upside until that correction has been completed.

As for USDJPY, I believe that is a sign of long term accumulation.

As I've mentioned in my previous posts, the long term fundamentals are point upwards for USDJPY. However in the medium term I'm expecting the accumulation phase to continue.

We may or may not see a testing / breaking / piercing of the BIG BOSS downtrend (blue downward channel) in the medium term. However if I go by how MAJOR market reversals have behaved historically, the accumulation phase takes up to a few months. I believe that we have seen the low back in Nov 2009 and I don't think we will return back to that level.

But everybody will get a chance to jump on the USDJPY train before it leaves the station on the MAJOR testing of the breakout.

In case you don't what I mean by "testing" of the breakout. This is when we see a breakout above / below significant price levels (indicating possible MAJOR reversals) and then markets go back to re-test those same levels before continuing in the new direction.

Anyhoos, I'm anticipating USDJPY to move between 88-92 (green ellipse in chart) in the coming weeks, during which time I will be building my long term positions.

Ok, so enough ranting, let's get back to making money!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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-Razorjack
  • #10,117
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:21am Feb 19, 2010 2:21am
Quoting Razorjack
USD
Boss Fundamentals (Outlook few weeks ahead): US economic recovery has been slow, but starting to pick up steam, be careful about shorting the USD. I'm shorting AUDUSD down to at least 0.87, possibly even lower and going long USDCAD up to 1.0850 or higher. I am also long on USDJPY.

Big Boss Fundamentals (Outlook several months ahead):An expectation of interest rate hikes this year, the US economy is expected to recover faster than JP, but slower than Australia, New Zealand and...
From my post back in Jan and posts #9775 and #9339, it looks like the medium term trends are starting to re-assert themselves.

The really boring thing about fundamentals is that they change SLOWLY over time, so there is nothing new for me to write about other then what was already mentioned in the FOMC raising the discount rate by 25 basis points.

On the positive side, this means that I won't bore all of you with my fundamental rantings!

So I believe we have seen the short term trends reverse back into the medium term trend in the USD pairs. I believe that we'll see the JPY crosses follow a similar pattern.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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-Razorjack
  • #10,118
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:53am Feb 19, 2010 2:53am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Alexandra
Very nice.....don't get too cute with your stops....so far so good.
i know what you mean. i'll watch that cutey carefully...
  • #10,119
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:04am Feb 19, 2010 3:04am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting strat
USDJPY

Draw a BOSS TL from 6/22/07 to 8/15/08 and project down.

Look at what is at 93.50

Always know what is ahead of you and keep one step in front - No Surprises.
thanks for the heads up strat. you are right there is quite a bit ahead to be fought through. the trendline you mentioned as well as some resistance at 92.40.

i hope that alexandra's and nicola's crystal balls are telling the truth, and in the meanwhile i will just follow price action until the market slaps me in the face.
  • #10,120
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:23am Feb 19, 2010 4:23am
Quoting Sid
thanks for the heads up strat. you are right there is quite a bit ahead to be fought through. the trendline you mentioned as well as some resistance at 92.40.

i hope that alexandra's and nicola's crystal balls are telling the truth, and in the meanwhile i will just follow price action until the market slaps me in the face.
Ha .. I don't even trade my crystal ball (I'm flat USDJPY) so you shouldn't.

The fundamentals are changing though.
When there is bad news or "risk off" trading the dollar has rallied as a safe haven, along with the yen. The yen more than the dollar so USDJPY goes down.
When there is good news in the USA then the dollar has rallied because the US is seen as recovering more quickly than other regions and more likely to hike rates. USDJPY goes up.
Win win for the dollar hence the bull run. We won't talk about the unemployment or debt for now.
The key to what is driving it is USDJPY.
If the moves continue to be because of improving economic news then USDJPY will keep going up. If you are a double-dip bear then you will be waiting to sell some more.

Alexandra is right about EURJPY (and USDJPY) being economic indicators.
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