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AUD/USD

  • #16,781
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:38pm Feb 17, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting Clouds
Highs, .9036, .9000, .8990
Lows, .8981, .8974, .8964
Need a new low, for an SL move
ok, maybe i'm bit bored.
New low .8959
  • #16,782
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:42pm Feb 17, 2010 6:42pm
We pierced the 15 min down channel, maybe that'll do it. If not, new low clocked .8955

Below .8950 should be a broken 4HR TL
  • #16,783
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:55pm Feb 17, 2010 6:55pm
?
Attached Image
  • #16,784
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:49pm Feb 17, 2010 7:49pm
I agree with the chart in principle, however we may not have topped-out yet. Lowe's speech was not hawkish, hence the profit taking we are seeing today. If any news comes out and smells good we may see retest of 90+ before going down again.
  • #16,785
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:50pm Feb 17, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting Squarepants
I agree with the chart in principle, however we may not have topped-out yet. Lowe's speech was not hawkish, hence the profit taking we are seeing today. If any news comes out and smells good we may see retest of 90+ before going down again.
Just look at Gold, Silver, EUR, GBP, everything on Daily. Even Oil, and CAD.

Anyway, my resistance now .8968 , and "maybe" .8984
  • #16,786
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:56pm Feb 17, 2010 7:56pm
I bet this chart from the RBA sent a few shivers down spines

If investors overseas wake up to just how rooted our commercial property sector is then it will help AUD drop

Short term though the VIX is still under control and equity markets maintain their irrational exuberance
Attached Image
  • #16,787
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:01pm Feb 17, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting Clouds
Just look at Gold, Silver, EUR, GBP, everything on Daily. Even Oil, and CAD.

Anyway, my resistance now .8968 , and "maybe" .8984
There's always been a correlation between certain commodities and the AUD.. and crosses with other currencies are arbed-out within microseconds so I don't see any predictive utility in them.
  • #16,788
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:04pm Feb 17, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting Squarepants
There's always been a correlation between certain commodities and the AUD.. and crosses with other currencies are arbed-out within microseconds so I don't see any predictive utility in them.
basically on all my usd pairs, i see dollar buying on daily, which would mean to me, 4-5 days of it

just ordered a pizza ~!
  • #16,789
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:10pm Feb 17, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting Squarepants
There's always been a correlation between certain commodities and the AUD.. and crosses with other currencies are arbed-out within microseconds so I don't see any predictive utility in them.
.8937 needs to break, (roughtly) for the TL to be broken.
If that can be broken before the weekend, next week should be bearish.
  • #16,790
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:12pm Feb 17, 2010 8:12pm
In some eyes, TL could be broken already
Attached Image
  • #16,791
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:20pm Feb 17, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting Clouds
alrighty, i have a sell order waiting at 1.57-1.58
Why?
  • #16,792
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:05pm Feb 17, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting Squarepants
I bet this chart from the RBA sent a few shivers down spines

If investors overseas wake up to just how rooted our commercial property sector is then it will help AUD drop

Short term though the VIX is still under control and equity markets maintain their irrational exuberance
Great post.
  • #16,793
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:21pm Feb 17, 2010 9:21pm
Zoom in to check out what the Asian session is doing with the rectangle I drew earlier.

M15:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 3.png Size: 41 KB


Looks moderately bullish, not a lot of volume to speak of though.

If I had to guess, I would say 8954 got bought for a trip to 0.92-0.93.

Initiating some small longs with SL below the red fib. Very small.
  • #16,794
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:06pm Feb 17, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting sinner-
Zoom in to check out what the Asian session is doing with the rectangle I drew earlier.

M15:

Attachment

Looks moderately bullish, not a lot of volume to speak of though.

If I had to guess, I would say 8954 got bought for a trip to 0.92-0.93.

Initiating some small longs with SL below the red fib. Very small.
your long trade is about to be tested in the downtrend channel around 8970
  • #16,795
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:17pm Feb 17, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting Clouds
your long trade is about to be tested in the downtrend channel around 8970
Sort of wondering what happened to the old Clouds, not this guy who has been running around for the last couple of weeks chasing the price and giving himself stress.

Are you sure we are in a channel, or are you just scrambling to figure out what the hell is going on?
  • #16,796
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:18pm Feb 17, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting sinner-
Sort of wondering what happened to the old Clouds, not this guy who has been running around for the last couple of weeks chasing the price and giving himself stress.

Are you sure we are in a channel, or are you just scrambling to figure out what the hell is going on?
I'm sure we're in a 15 min. channel.
  • #16,797
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:26pm Feb 17, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm sure we're in a 15 min. channel.
So sure you won't even post a chart?

A channel would imply we have two parallel lines which have both been tested and bounced from. I see no such tested lines.

In any case, good trading is good trading and has really nothing to do with being right or wrong. Genuinely thought you realised that, but recently it doesn't seem like it. More like you are too interested in other traders positions against your own.

I do not mind being wrong on this trade. Or any trade, for that matter.

Yesterday was a big winner for me, and I am sure there is more to come.
  • #16,798
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:28pm Feb 17, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting sinner-
Great post.
Thanks mate!
  • #16,799
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:31pm Feb 17, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting sinner-
So sure you won't even post a chart?

A channel would imply we have two parallel lines which have both been tested and bounced from. I see no such tested lines.

In any case, good trading is good trading and has really nothing to do with being right or wrong. Genuinely thought you realised that, but recently it doesn't seem like it. More like you are too interested in other traders positions against your own.

I do not mind being wrong on this trade. Or any trade, for that matter.

Yesterday was a big winner for me, and I am sure...
Relax. Don't get worked up. I'll post a chart if you want me to, but I was just pointing out it was about to test the top of the channel, if it breaks, (being long) may be a good trade.

Attached Image
  • #16,800
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:32pm Feb 17, 2010 10:32pm
I'm assuming clouds is refering to this channel.
But it looks like a temp retracment to 8950, and then a swing back up, only time will tell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m15.gif Size: 47 KB
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