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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #55,281
  • Feb 17, 2010 1:23pm Feb 17, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Yeah, it really can be amazing how fast some of these people can build up an account.
I think every time the put a trade they make it DO or DIE.

lets see if i could won those 2000$.

(even 100$ is not bad )
  • #55,282
  • Feb 17, 2010 1:23pm Feb 17, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting benji533
Hey Mikey,

Please do not get me wrong. I am not the one which is going to tell you what to do. Just wanna let you know that James has related to this exact issue many times in his videos, and even more times in his posts.
He says that we, the small account holders have to take a choice. His advice for us making the choice is: open a large demo account (or micro real account), treat it like it is real money, and in the meantime save enough money till we get to the point that we can take only 1-3 slam dunk trades each month, manage them correctly,...
Hello Ben,
I am aware of Jim's opinion on this. And if i could find 3 A+ trades a month I'd be happy. Even with small account which I can afford (2000-3000 euros) I value each euro, so if I see profit of 20-30 euros I'm more than happy. My question was focused more towards 2 issues:
1, I'm not sure there's is even 3 A+ trades a month for my 25 pairs(On daily charts). But until I finish backtesting of all of them at least for year 2009 I cannot tell for sure. But if not the only choice is to watch more charts. But with small account it's not so easy to trade futures... (Although over time of 2-3 years I might save more to have bigger account).
Honestly, maybe not even 3 a month, if I was able to find 25 A+ trades a year it would be great.

2, Second issue is how to decide trade management tactic for a trade? If go to BE at first trouble area each time I might get stopped out at BE 20 out of 25 trades. Then if remaining 5 trades breaks, how far will they go? Although if they broke thru 1st trouble area I'd use Mike's "let me market tell" by trailing stop behind S/R or bars.
Or maybe it would be better to take full profit at first trouble area for each trade? From my backtests so far, really, 90% of A+ setups gets there.
Or give each trade a bit of room, so not BE but just tighten stop.

Or maybe the best would be a combination, so based on setup one would decide how to manage a trade. But since I'm taking only A+ setups, all setups are very good and still some run and some not. Any rules base on which you experienced guys decide how you manage your trade?

I hope what I write is not confusing, I'm tired and english is not my native language.

Thanks for feedback Ben!

Cheers and best to you!
Mikey
  • #55,283
  • Feb 17, 2010 1:46pm Feb 17, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting michal7
Hello Ben,
I am aware of Jim's opinion on this. And if i could find 3 A+ trades a month I'd be happy. Even with small account which I can afford (2000-3000 euros)...
Hey Mikey,

I got ya buddy.
I do not have much time right now. Hopefully tomorrow or at the weekend I will post for you a detailed post of all the trades I would consider in the "A" category for 2009, including management plan options (I have already done this for myself, so it won't be a problem going through it again for ya).

Ben
  • #55,284
  • Edited 2:03pm Feb 17, 2010 1:46pm | Edited 2:03pm
As always, Patrick's (Seeking Light) words struck a chord and I thought that if I was a newcomer to the thread I wouldn't be able to see the method. So I figured I'd post a few more charts. This comes with the caveat that I am still finding my way and no zen master of this stuff. I won't post all my trades, I do that on PF. But I'll try and post a few more that illustrate what I learnt from James.

There are tons of variations posted here and threads do evolve organically but one of the mistakes I am prone to making and I know others do too, is to go look for the advanced before I've got the basics locked down. Get one simple style, get profitable, repeat, then look for more. That's my mantra these days. I remember the days when people here were scared to post 4H and 1H charts because they felt it would distract newcomers from the key focus on the daily and weekly. The bar has definitely dropped since then.

On a side note, I think it's because real A+ trades are few and far between. Whereas B setups come all the time. So Mike could post every one of his trades here and his 2-3 setups a month would end up drowned in all the noise.

Anyway, some guys posted the 4H GJ trade today. I took it because it was a good sized bar with a long nose that stuck out, and had good confluence. Namely the 150EMA, previous support (look to the left) and was between the 50 and 61.8 fib which is an area I like to see bars at.

I marked out the two trouble areas and took a snapshot of the trade for my records. Went to break even at the first trouble area and got stopped out for break even.

That's pretty much what I look for. Good bars with strong confluence, that also have room to run to first target. The I go to break even and look for bigger moves.
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  • #55,285
  • Feb 17, 2010 2:01pm Feb 17, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting TiaForex
As always, Patrick's (Seeking Light) words struck a chord and I thought that if I was a newcomer to the thread I wouldn't be able to see the method. So I figured I'd post a few more charts. This comes with the caveat that I am still finding my way and no zen master of this stuff. I won't post all my trades, I do that on PF. But I'll try and post a few more that illustrate what I learnt from James.

There are tons of variations posted here and threads do evolve organically but one of the mistakes I am prone to making and I know others do too, is...
Classic stuff Rocks Tia,
.
  • #55,286
  • Feb 17, 2010 2:08pm Feb 17, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting benji533
Hey Mikey,

I got ya buddy.
I do not have much time right now. Hopefully tomorrow or at the weekend I will post for you a detailed post of all the trades I would consider in the "A" category for 2009, including management plan options (I have already done this for myself, so it won't be a problem going through it again for ya).

Ben
Thanks Ben, that would be great if you did so! I'm posting my backtests with some reasoning on a site which I have with my friend so please if you have some time maybe you could have a look there(link is in my signature) and potentially let me know if I'm doing something wrong.
I'm really looking forward to see your A trades for 2009 with management plans!

Thanks again!

Mikey
  • #55,287
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:02pm Feb 17, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting TiaForex
As always, Patrick's (Seeking Light) words struck a chord and I thought that if I was a newcomer to the thread I wouldn't be able to see the method. So I figured I'd post a few more charts. This comes with the caveat that I am still finding my way and no zen master of this stuff. I won't post all my trades, I do that on PF. But I'll try and post a few more that illustrate what I learnt from James.

There are tons of variations posted here and threads do evolve organically but one of the mistakes I am prone to making and I know others do too, is...
This was a good trade for me, I saw the 143.65 as a strong PPZ and it held as support for a while, this was the first test as resistance and I watched it try again and again to get above 143.60 but it just couldn't. I played it as a aggressive small stop above 143.65 and it finally dropped to those bar lows. 100 pips (3%).

I also tried the same with Fiber but it blew away the 1.37 level fro -30 pip loss (1%), anyone know why, I should check the news I guess.

This is all on demo.

Chatz
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  • #55,288
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:59pm Feb 17, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Seems like Risking even 5% won't work against these freaks.

http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/contest/
Huh, they only started this afternoon with 10k and the leader currently already has turned it into 21k?? Wtf...

I'm sure they've taken solid trades with responsible riskmgt.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #55,289
  • Edited 5:44pm Feb 17, 2010 4:58pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting Dhb
Huh, they only started this afternoon with 10k and the leader currently already has turned it into 21k?? Wtf...

I'm sure they've taken solid trades with responsible riskmgt.
Contests like that reward high risk behaviour because only the top 25ish people get paid, and the time horizon is only a month. If you are in 26th spot with enough time for one more trade, expected value demands that you risk 100% of your account on that next trade.

Then again, if you are a 'broker' that takes all the action from the clients onto your own books (and therefore win when they lose, and vice versa), maybe that's a trading style you want to encourage.

Quoting TiaForex
That's pretty much what I look for. Good bars with strong confluence, that also have room to run to first target. The I go to break even and look for bigger moves.
As always, great stuff.

---------

Thinking about it, these two things are probably related. Just as it is easy to shove your entire account into a single trade when the only risk you have is contest money that has no real world value, its pretty easy to just post all kinds of crazy trades that you took on demo (as long as they are winners).

I suspect we would see a much higher concentration of A+ setups if people were trading actual money.


(and by actual, I mean both legal tender and meaningful amounts)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #55,290
  • Feb 17, 2010 5:02pm Feb 17, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting chatzi
This was a good trade for me, I saw the 143.65 as a strong PPZ and it held as support for a while, this was the first test as resistance and I watched it try again and again to get above 143.60 but it just couldn't. I played it as a aggressive small stop above 143.65 and it finally dropped to those bar lows. 100 pips (3%).

I also tried the same with Fiber but it blew away the 1.37 level fro -30 pip loss (1%), anyone know why, I should check the news I guess.

This is all on demo.

Chatz
Chatzi I don't understand what you were trying to do with this fiber trade. There is a nice BEOB 3 bars back telling you to short, and you traded long?

What I really don't understand is how you responded to a post where TiaForex was agreeing with SeekingLight against people posting things that don't have anything to do with basic price action trading, with two examples of (seemingly) not price action based trades.

I'm not trying to be rude but this seems like a great post for your journal, but doesn't really seem educational or helpful for the thread.

I apologize if I'm misunderstanding your intent or missing something.

Cory
  • #55,291
  • Feb 17, 2010 5:23pm Feb 17, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting Dhb
Huh, they only started this afternoon with 10k and the leader currently already has turned it into 21k?? Wtf...

I'm sure they've taken solid trades with responsible riskmgt.
Contests are useless usually because they don't account for the odds of repeating your performance. Say 100 people played roulette and we ranked the winner in a 'contest'. They all bet on a single number. Most of them lose....but one of them increased his 'account' by 3700% on one 'trade'. What a hero he must be!

You get the point I'm making here.

High risk behaviour going for the long shot is what these contests reward. There's another word for that. The Lottery.

Sustained growth, year in, year out. That's much harder to achieve. In my opinion percentage return is not the best way to judge a trader. The best way to judge a trader is through his or her consistency.
  • #55,292
  • Feb 17, 2010 5:48pm Feb 17, 2010 5:48pm
So today I've decided to start demoing J16 setups on H4 (besides D1 and W1), i.e., insofar as I'm around to check the charts. Took the PB on GBPJPY which has already been mentioned here before, managed it identically, i.e., set S/L to B/E at the first area of trouble (which were the lows of the preceding bars/candles), and consequently got stopped out for B/E. No biggie.

Also took the BEOB on AUDUSD, but when the next candle did not break sufficiently hard and the candle after that also did not look like it was doing much (though granted, it hadn't closed yet), I decided to kill the trade for a small loss (0.28% on 1% risked). That's basically my time stop rule. In my view, a setup should break fairly hard towards TP1. If it does not do so, like the first bar after the aussie beob in my view, which formed a mini pin, I kill the trade and move on to the next.

Now looking at the charts, I see that aussie did eventually hit my TP1. Now I'm wondering if my time stop might be too tight. I did come across a webinar of Pring somewhere way earlier in this thread, and during that webinar, he mentioned that outside bars and pinbars remain valid for approximately 5 more bars/candles after the signal occurs (if I remember correctly).

So my question to the people reading this is: what kind of time stop, if any, do you use?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Boy

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #55,293
  • Feb 17, 2010 5:57pm Feb 17, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting TiaForex
Contests are useless usually because they don't account for the odds of repeating your performance. Say 100 people played roulette and we ranked the winner in a 'contest'. They all bet on a single number. Most of them lose....but one of them increased his 'account' by 3700% on one 'trade'. What a hero he must be!

You get the point I'm making here.

High risk behaviour going for the long shot is what these contests reward. There's another word for that. The Lottery.

Sustained growth, year in, year out. That's much harder to achieve. In my opinion...
Oh don't worry, I get your point, and I agree. This is pure gambling. But still, by being able to see the trades and the risks that were taken, I think one would be able to separate pure gamblers from those who could, or are, doing quite well in ordinary trading, and who are now only taking excessive position sizes in order to win.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #55,294
  • Edited 6:11pm Feb 17, 2010 6:01pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting Cbh123
Chatzi I don't understand what you were trying to do with this fiber trade. There is a nice BEOB 3 bars back telling you to short, and you traded long?

What I really don't understand is how you responded to a post where TiaForex was agreeing with SeekingLight against people posting things that don't have anything to do with basic price action trading, with two examples of (seemingly) not price action based trades.

I'm not trying to be rude but this seems like a great post for your journal, but doesn't really seem educational or helpful...
Hi Cory,

It was a s/r trade based on PPZ which to me is as important if not more than PA. I was pointing out where I though the important levels where. Im not sure of your level Cory, but once a PA trade reaches the first ppz you can't bet on it going anywhere, so a BEOB a few bars back in no mans land wouldn't really mean much to me. This trade only cost me 1% and my other trade got me 3%.

Regarding whether my post is suitable, I disagree with you, its a valid J16 trade, this thread is full of them going back to 2006, from some of the best traders here. We are all at different levels here, I don't think we have to dumb down the thread, we need to give people more credit, they just have to read the first post.
  • #55,295
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:02pm Feb 17, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting Dhb
Oh don't worry, I get your point, and I agree. This is pure gambling. But still, by being able to see the trades and the risks that were taken, I think one would be able to separate pure gamblers from those who could, or are, doing quite well in ordinary trading, and who are now only taking excessive position sizes in order to win.
Absolutely. I was just using your post as a leaping off point rather than countering you.

Some of the big reputable contests have been won by great traders like Larry Williams and Buzzy Schwartz. And those guys have made fortunes from trading.
  • #55,296
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:19pm Feb 17, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting chatzi
Hi Cory,

Regarding whether my post is suitable, I disagree with you, its a valid J16 trade, this thread is full of them going back to 2006, from some of the best traders here. We are all at different levels here, I don't think we have to dumb down the thread, we need to give people more credit, they just have to read the first post.
Hi Chatzi,

I apologize, I don't think I worded my response very well and didn't intend for it to be rude or hurtful. I should have been more careful with my words. I really appreciate your regular contributions to the thread.

I know there are regular posts of "touch" trades from some of the best traders, and I am not saying that isn't a valid method. However, if you look closely I think you'll find that the great traders who have done this weren't just looking at an S/R area and guessing if it would bounce there (gambling if you ask me); they were looking for extremely strongly confluenced areas. Perhaps your EUR/USD trade had such an area, and I missed it.

From your post I can't tell how you made your decision to take this trade. I just wanted to encourage you to make your posts more educational. Please go into more detail about the confluence, etc. which made you make your decision, so we can learn together.

I'm not saying the thread needs to be "dumbed down," I just know how long it took me to read the whole thing and want to keep the main theme intact for those who are new to the method.

Sorry again for my wording, and I hope no hard feelings

Cory
  • #55,297
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:30pm Feb 17, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting Cbh123
Hi Chatzi,

I apologize, I don't think I worded my response very well and didn't intend for it to be rude or hurtful....
No Problem Cory,

The Fiber trade was bit of mistake, I only had one confluence (TL retrace) with ppz. I will make sure my charts have all the confluences from now on.

Regards

Chatzi.
  • #55,298
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:59pm Feb 17, 2010 6:59pm
My own personal holy grail is to find a setup that the old timers would mark as an A+ setup, does this 2day Pin come close?
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Learning to be rigid in my rules & flexible in my expectations
  • #55,299
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:03pm Feb 17, 2010 7:03pm
Hi, there is my question, what you think guys of 2-day pinbar on GOLD. I like PPZ + downtrend here. Any comments please?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1266454864
  • #55,300
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:05pm Feb 17, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting scott087
There are a few setups on 4 hour, fxpro feed....
I just wanted to give a quick update on these 2 trades from my last post.

There are a few golden rules and core teachings of James16 which both came into play here and saved me from a loss both setups.


AUDCHF 8hr pin...
One of the core rules for entering a setup..WAIT FOR THE BREAK. I think you can see why waiting for the break made this trade an easy one to manage.



As for GBPCAD....
Quoting scott087
I wouldn't buy under 1.65.
There was a clear ppz/resistance at 1.65. See James16 "This is critical". I chose not to enter until the level was broken. Turns out, 1.65 never broke, so I didn't enter.

IMO this was a great BUOB but clearly it wasn't strong enough to break through 1.65.

Rather than wait and hope for the trade to go our way, follow James' "this is critical", be prepared, and avoid the loss. If I had decided to enter below 1.65, you know where my stop would be by the time price got near that level. I chose to wait for 1.65 to be broken because there wasn't enough room to move my stop to BE on this one before 1.65.

What I'm trying to get across here to all the new people is this..master the basics first--there is a good reason why James teaches what he does here to the new people.

Instead of having 2 losses, 4-5% drawdown, and wondering what happened and why, I have my account unharmed and no stress. What more could you ask for?

I hope this helped someone deciding where to start.

Scott
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