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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #221
  • Edited 4:36pm Feb 17, 2010 1:37pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting kimd
I also am getting annoyed at the such random calls in the AUD thread. I don`t mind once in a while, but it`s getting to the point that it`s making me dizzy.
I know what you mean. It amazes me that they find time to post the call while scalping. I've been scalping a lot lately which is a bad habit to get into because I'm not letting my trades run long enough but the last thing I think of doing when scalping is to post the details on the thread.

From looking at the charts, the FOMC minutes seem to be a non-event. And while typing that, Gold just drops about $7.00.

Here's another article along similar lines to COT/Sentiment http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...ecline_on.html

SSI: Retail EURUSD Longs Surge 32% after Pair Pulls Back to 1.36
Wednesday, 17 Feb 2010 18:06 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

https://plus.dailyfx.com/fxcmideas/i...r/0217ssi1.gif


SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.21 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 31.9% higher than yesterday and 8.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.4% lower than yesterday and 15.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.9% stronger than yesterday and 3.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.47 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.22 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.3% higher than yesterday and 19.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.6% lower than yesterday and 16.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 21.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 25.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 5.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.67 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.5% lower than yesterday and 23.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.3% higher than yesterday and 3.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.4% weaker than yesterday and 11.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.24 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.51 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 20.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.8% higher than yesterday and 31.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.4% stronger than yesterday and 0.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.92 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 24.1% lower than yesterday and 60.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 36.7% higher than yesterday and 16.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.3% weaker than yesterday and 15.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.66 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 21.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 17.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% stronger than yesterday and 5.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.10 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.1% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.9% stronger than yesterday and 2.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #222
  • Feb 17, 2010 2:54pm Feb 17, 2010 2:54pm
That's what I am aiming or rather hoping for. I am long from .8990 with TP at .9090 (major R)

on the downside, I will double hedge at .8945 as stops would undoubtedly be lined up there.





Quoting Patience
I know what you mean. It amazes me that they find time to post the call while scalping. I've been scalping a lot lately which is a bad habit to get into because I'm not letting my trades run long enough but the last thing I think of doing when scalping is to post the details on the thread.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.66 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 21.2% weaker since...
  • #223
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:17pm Feb 17, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting puks
That's what I am aiming or rather hoping for. I am long from .8990 with TP at .9090 (major R)

on the downside, I will double hedge at .8945 as stops would undoubtedly be lined up there.
hi mate,
I see level of R>S at .8920 good for taking a long.
I've been think of it's better we post our calls here or at Geppgy's thread first then taking them.
this way we can see if there is anything wrong with the call.
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  • #224
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:22pm Feb 17, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting Patience
Don't know about invaluable - lol - you're too kind. And, just so you know, I'm a chick I like being one of the boys though

Well we got PA confirmation all right on that bullish divergence you spotted on USDX 4 hour. Good call. I'm kicking myself for not selling EUR. Too much fussing around with A/J and trying to suss whether I should short AUD. Even my A/J longs didn't hit target today and, unlike Goldmen with AIG, I had to take a haircut on my profit as my tight stops were hit whilst I was elsewhere.
sorry for my mistak. I didnt know that-- no wonder why you dont post random calls
  • #225
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:35pm Feb 17, 2010 3:35pm
Agree

Cheers


Quoting shahab8b
hi mate,
I see level of R>S at .8920 good for taking a long.
I've been think of it's better we post our calls here or at Geppgy's thread first then taking them.
this way we can see if there is anything wrong with the call.
  • #226
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:38pm Feb 17, 2010 3:38pm
SL of Gold short moved to B/E at 1115
  • #227
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:41pm Feb 17, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting puks
Agree

Cheers
you know that I'm holding shorts on A/U from .8995, I expect that to fall at least .8920
  • #228
  • Feb 17, 2010 4:29pm Feb 17, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
sorry for my mistak. I didnt know that-- no wonder why you dont post random calls
No need to apologise Probably explains my lack of technical skills and why I tend to look at other things like sentiment readings and gaps - ha, ha

Nice bullish engulfing on daily USDX. Seems everyone is expecting EUR to go up and even though it's had a nice drop, I'm thinking more downside. I'm just too chicken to sell it at this level so I'm going to bed.

IMF selling their gold on the market too. Not good for AUD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #229
  • Feb 17, 2010 5:23pm Feb 17, 2010 5:23pm
This could be the last stop hunt in EUR and AUD before a major move up.

At times like this when majority of players are short EUR and AUD, market may bounce back quicker and earlier than most people expect.

IMF is selliing gold which IMHO will drive the gold prices up because a) somebody will buy gold at a cheaper price and b) lack of supply (from IMF) could result in higher gold prices.

This is my understanding and needless to say, I have been wrong on numerious occassions...

Cheers



Quoting Patience
No need to apologise Probably explains my lack of technical skills and why I tend to look at other things like sentiment readings and gaps - ha, ha

Nice bullish engulfing on daily USDX. Seems everyone is expecting EUR to go up and even though it's had a nice drop, I'm thinking more downside. I'm just too chicken to sell it at this level so I'm going to bed.

IMF selling their gold on the market too. Not good for AUD.

Attachment
  • #230
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:18pm Feb 17, 2010 6:18pm
we got to a R>S level at Gold, I'm taking some profit (2* 150 pips) off the table and I'll be waiting to take whatever the market give us-I personally perfer more downside but we need to wait and see
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  • #231
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:45am Feb 18, 2010 4:45am
Quoting puks
This could be the last stop hunt in EUR and AUD before a major move up.
Could very well be. Dips being very well bought on AUD. Bloomberg make me laugh. Talking about "Dollars Shining Moment". Have they looked at a NZD/USD chart? It's still at 70 cents. A teeny weeny country in the backwater with just over 4 million people and it's still trouncing the USD. Let's see it at 0.60 and I might start agreeing with them.

Shahab, you were right about Soros. He was double talking us

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8521680.stm
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #232
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:43pm Feb 18, 2010 9:43pm
Written by Kathy Lien ,Director of Currency Research, GFT

U.S. DOLLAR: FED SHOCKS WITH DISCOUNT RATE HIKE


After the stock markets closed this afternoon, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate by 25bp to 0.75 percent, sending the U.S. dollar sharply higher against all of the major currencies. Although the Fed went out of their way to say that this does not equate to a change in their monetary policy outlook, action speaks louder than words. Their decision to begin normalizing rates before the next central bank meeting indicates how hawkish they must be and how serious they are about tightening monetary policy. First, it is important to realize that the discount rate is different from the Federal Funds or overnight lending rate. The discount rate is the rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on loans that they receive from the Fed while the Fed funds rate is the rate that banks charge each other for loans. By hiking the discount rate and not the Fed funds rate, the central bank has in essence, widened the spread. The Fed also shortened the terms of primary loans to overnight from 90 days. This is a game changer for the foreign exchange market and should lead to further gains in the dollar during the Asian and European trading sessions even if the U.S. central bank attempted to temper their comments by saying that their outlook for the economy and monetary policy is unchanged and that rates will remain low for an extended period. The most important takeaway is that the Fed is beginning to implement an exit strategy which is more than what many of the other central banks are doing and therefore this action will be extremely positive for the dollar.
  • #233
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:45am Feb 19, 2010 2:45am
Quoting shahab8b
The most important takeaway is that the Fed is beginning to implement an exit strategy which is more than what many of the other central banks are doing and therefore this action will be extremely positive for the dollar.
Good ole Kathy. That explains it better to me. I was thinking "what's the big deal"? I thought it was considered shameful if a bank went to the discount window anyway - now they have no choice.

Some would say the signs were there that something wasn't quite right. Run-up on indices with no volume, bullish engulfing on daily USDX - I'll have to hand it to the chartists on this one. The USDX did show the way. And the PA yesterday was Hong Kong Chop Suey confusing the heck out of traders. I think some were in the know. I didn't bother with it.

I don't think the sentiment index is very relevant at times like this but I'll post it anyway. I'll be looking to sell all rallies - GBP and EUR look better bets not because I think the US$ is strong - they are just as bad. Giving up on AUD.

SSI: EURUSD Retail Interest Jumps 23% as Pair Slips to Fresh Yearly Low
Friday, 19 Feb 2010 10:13 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss1.png Size: 213 KB


SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.46 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.2% higher than yesterday and 15.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 35.8% higher than yesterday and 12.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 23.0% stronger than yesterday and 5.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 2.13 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.35 as 70% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.3% higher than yesterday and 22.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 25.0% higher than yesterday and 17.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.19 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 42.2% higher than yesterday and 31.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 23.0% stronger than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.09 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.1% higher than yesterday and 21.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 23.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.6% stronger than yesterday and 6.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.20 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.66 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 6.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.3% higher than yesterday and 1.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.0% weaker than yesterday and 5.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.03 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.0% higher than yesterday and 41.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.4% higher than yesterday and 38.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 24.3% stronger than yesterday and 7.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.50 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.4% higher than yesterday and 7.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 12.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 1.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 32.5% higher than yesterday and 5.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.2% stronger than yesterday and 0.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #234
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:29am Feb 19, 2010 5:29am
Quoting Patience
Good ole Kathy. That explains it better to me. I was thinking "what's the big deal"? I thought it was considered shameful if a bank went to the discount window anyway - now they have no choice.

Some would say the signs were there that something wasn't quite right. Run-up on indices with no volume, bullish engulfing on daily USDX - I'll have to hand it to the chartists on this one. The USDX did show the way. And the PA yesterday was Hong Kong Chop Suey confusing the heck out of traders. I think some were in the know. I didn't bother with it....
G'day patience,
yesterday when I saw the news release , I placed some separate 1-lot trades on short A/U and long U/C , collectively 14 lots- the max that I could tolerate for 50 pips negative each as SL and 20% drawdown-
I shouldnt be mad as I collect total 600 pips overall -but I made a huge mistake betting on A/U and U/C , instead I should have bet on E/U or G/U-
Aussie and Loonie are so strong even with USDX soaring they are not losing much ground
  • #235
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:51am Feb 19, 2010 5:51am
It certainly will be interesting to see what the market makes of the news. I have opened a small long on the AUD at 15, just because I believe there will be a small retrace, nothing certain on my charts though.

I agree that loonie just keeps on ticking regardless of the news. Our economy seems to be strengthening slowly overall.
  • #236
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:53am Feb 19, 2010 5:53am
I am stuck in long cable from 1.5550 and currently in a mess.

Another 1 cent down from here and I will get wiped out of my account but I guess I will hedge below 1.5350.

I seriously pressed wrong button on hearing the news (yes i know this is stupid) but then was too stubborn to ride on my losses.

what a joke I am :-(


Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience,
yesterday when I saw the news release , I placed some separate 1-lot trades on short A/U and long U/C , collectively 14 lots- the max that I could tolerate for 50 pips negative each as SL and 20% drawdown-
I shouldnt be mad as I collect total 600 pips overall -but I made a huge mistake betting on A/U and U/C , instead I should have bet on E/U or G/U-
Aussie and Loonie are so strong even with USDX soaring they are not losing much ground
  • #237
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:57am Feb 19, 2010 5:57am
Quoting kimd
It certainly will be interesting to see what the market makes of the news. I have opened a small long on the AUD at 15, just because I believe there will be a small retrace, nothing certain on my charts though.

I agree that loonie just keeps on ticking regardless of the news. Our economy seems to be strengthening slowly overall.
silver hourly looks strong at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #238
  • Edited 6:22am Feb 19, 2010 6:10am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting puks
I am stuck in long cable from 1.5550 and currently in a mess.

Another 1 cent down from here and I will get wiped out of my account but I guess I will hedge below 1.5350.

I seriously pressed wrong button on hearing the news (yes i know this is stupid) but then was too stubborn to ride on my losses.

what a joke I am :-(
hi team,
sorry to hear about your loss- I can understand pressing the wrong bottom, but you were supposed to have a SL/Hedge point, for examlpe- for cable set at -70 pips if you have no clue where to put it- if you are -70 in cable ,you are definitly in a wrong trade- for Assuie I can say -30/40 is a fixed # if you dont know where to hedge or SL
for cable I think we retest S>R at 1.5540/50 look at where I placed my SL to lock in profit in cable- then I re-enter short at 1.5545
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  • #239
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:16am Feb 19, 2010 6:16am
Quoting kimd
It certainly will be interesting to see what the market makes of the news. I have opened a small long on the AUD at 15, just because I believe there will be a small retrace, nothing certain on my charts though.

I agree that loonie just keeps on ticking regardless of the news. Our economy seems to be strengthening slowly overall.
hi kim,
thats true, I think right now the best economies are Australia and Canada-
if I knew this couple of month ego I would have bought them (A and C) and let them run forever-
  • #240
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:20am Feb 19, 2010 6:20am
Quoting kimd
silver hourly looks strong at the moment.

Attachment
nice chart- whenever silver is strong you can have confidence in gold strenght
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