Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

This long trade from yesterday's daily pin type setup is certainly turning out well, although I wonder if it's about to end, looks like an hourly short biased pin may be developing.

edit. I exited the long for around +140 after that big up surge settled down and showed it wasn't about to go any higher anytime soon. I figure if it wants to go higher at this point, it will probably do some waves and I can get back in, or if it's going to now drop, no sense losing live pips hoping it recovers - I can just get back in whenever the opportunity permits. My goal isn't to ride trades as long as possible at a time, it's to get something green out of it consistently.

With nothing but a lot of sideways going on I revert back to horizontal S/R. In this case I found a clear support and with all the circumstantial reasonings, I felt the chart was getting top heavy anyway and ready to possibly fall (it's going sideways for an extended time for a few days after a big sudden up move) so I was short biased, looking for an entry. When that support was broken I watched for a pull back and then went in short around 0715. Now it's reached a first target of a recent low and I'm up +30 at break even, ready to see if something happens.

The short from last night that was at break even was almost threatened by a sudden surge in activity when it wound up a little for a big drop, but I'm still in it and now I'm up almost +100.
Support and resistance either holds...or it doesn't.

After that big down move hit its bottom and recoiled I took profit along the way when it looked like it was over. So looking for a reversal to trade back up, the hourly pin was a good sign of an up move. Although I don't like so much sideways consolidation between a pin and its eventual break out, in this case since I'm following the price action so closely I feel in tune with it so I'm looking at it as a confluence of a pin with a small channel that's basing near the top of the pin in support of a long break, and also it's a good place for a tight stop. So I'm giving this long a shot and watching it closely. After all I gained I can afford to give a little back if it goes wrong.

This chart has price at the exact same level as the last break out chart except 3 hours have passed. It's getting near that time of day where things will start to move and so I'm at break even, currently up around +20 so that's good. Anything can happen and I have no reason to hold on with a wider stop for this one because I'm not following any momentum where I expect it to follow a bias, I just simply got in long with some passive analysis but it's really been consolidating all evening and will now do whatever it wants, any minute now.

I was looking at this horizontal line as resistance earlier today as price approached it from below. I was looking either for a rejection off of here or a break through and then re-touch and bounce back up to confirm the break. It turned out to be a bounce off of it with those 2 big hourly bars penetrating up through and ending up forming a 2 bar pin. I didn't immediately enter short but in all those sideways hours that followed, I went short when one of the bars was broken and I kept a tight stop above that little consolidation. Now it's starting to potentially continue down so I'm at break even.

Continuing to follow the support/resistance price action, on the daily chart this is just going sideways with consolidating inside bar pyramid type formation so it's just swinging sideways on the lower time frames. With that in mind I noticed the short I was last in had hit a low area and stalled, matching 2 previous lows of the last few days, so I was watching for a possible reversal back up.

I drew a resistance line overhead and let it go to the left a little to see what it lined up with. I saw a resistance that's been respected so I figured I'll see if I can use it for a confirmation to stay short (bounce back down from it) or a reason to go long (break out and confirmation of turning to support).

When price went up through that resistance, also around the 50 number, it was able to hover at or above in such a way I considered it new support. I set a pending stop for my short and a new pending long and it triggered and took off. Now I'm set for some amount of profit on the long.

It's broken the daily pyramid consolidation so from here it will either take off upward or just do the false breakout thing and get me out for small profit.

Since it has kept going up I zoomed out and saw it has reached a previous high and that combined with the fact it's broken out long from consolidation and has done well for one day, it's probably at risk for rejecting from this high so I'm tightening up my stop to get the most of it. Using one of my old methods on a lower time frame I see it's clearly trending up in waves so I'm trailing the stop behind each wave.

Knowing such a big move up would have to reject from somewhere, I saw this pin structure and went short. Currently sitting at break even in the short. On the 4 hour chart there is a nice big pin structure from all of this and if I can manage to hold my position and get into that 4 hour pin short, it could have good potential. Even if I'm stopped out now I should be able to find another way in with the normal flow.

Between Friday and yesterday there's been a consolidating triangle which has shaken loose and now gone into a sideways channel and so my feeling is a short bias with the solidly forming low support and reversal price actions from the top of the channel. I've taken this small hourly pin short in anticipation of a short move when things start moving soon in the session tonight. I'm at break even because anything could still happen, it hasn't officially broken out of the channel yet, I'm just lining up the ducks. If it had broken out and pulled back and then given a confirmation to continue short, I'd leave a wider stop.

It's cleared that first obstacle and has now reached another potential bounce point. Hopefully it can keep going down. I'll check back in the morning to see if I'm out at break even or going for it still.

And there's the big drop after sitting idle for a while and not coming back high enough to threaten the break even stop.

After the drop and consolidation it was time to watch for something new to break out and confirm. There was an attempt at a long break up from consolidation when the day's activity started, then it came back and even attempted to break through short but it formed a quality hourly pin to go back long and I couldn't resist. Now it's possibly bouncing from upper resistance and it's getting near the end of the day's fast paced action so it may be time to either take profit or consider a short if something looks doable.

This is turning out well after all. But it's bound to reject from this web of resistance. I've tightened the stop behind the round 0750.

I took profit on a stop when the big up move went down but I went long again with this 4 hour pin. There is also a 2 day pin in place, and right now it's breaking out of a longer term resistance so it could go far, with or without a few more ins and outs along the ride of course to preserve profit just in case it collapses instead.

Here's the intraday analysis for how I was taken out of the first long and why I was feeling good about that new 4 hour pin long. Normally that 4 hour pin may look like it's in the wrong place - right near a top instead of a bottom/significant pullback, plus it's got a lot of bar highs to the left of it to act as resistance, but looking at it more cleanly on M15 I saw what was actually taking place so I saw good support and potential momentum.

Busy week and can't sit at H1 or M15 charts to babysit so I have occasionally looked at H4 and found these two pin/outside bars. The first one stalled up in between two resistance areas I marked so I exited when it broke down. Still in the current pin and looking to see where it goes.

These were obvious big bars among consolidation areas that showed an attempt to break out, fail, then give a degree of confidence about going the other way.

Don't know what's causing the big move in USD related charts but I saw this activity after yesterday's big up move. In the consolidation period rather than reversing downward I saw another attempted surge up to match the peak, then another drop to the bottom of the channel and the hourly pin. I figured I have a few pips to try going long back to the top of the channel if nothing else and it doesn't seem ready to drop yet with the channel bouncing back and forth.

Lucky for me it worked out and I'm holding a long that's been up over 140 pips at one point.

Hey Thexder... you are back and as it appears in great form.

Finally the reversal I was waiting for.