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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,941
  • Feb 9, 2010 9:36pm Feb 9, 2010 9:36pm
Palmer,

The signal showing some resistance @ 50sma (see ellipse area) but I doubt this 1 is a false signal. Lower TFs (H1 and M15) are not agreeing each other. Just keep watching. This pair probably consolidating between PW1.3790 and PW1.3630 until next week. I could be wrong anyway.

Will depend on lower TFs (including M5) to confirm the right signal.

Cheers.
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  • #21,942
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:50am Feb 10, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Palmer
sfox...

Here's the info from the original post on page 1460...

OK....

BullBearSlideV1.0

Here's the logic:

- A red bar (look for short entries) is drawn when the MACD is below the zero line AND the 8ema is less than the 21ema AND the 21ema is less than the 89sma AND the 8ema is less than the 89sma AND the current high is less than the 21ema.

- A green bar (look for long entries)is just the opposite....AND the current low is greater than the 21ema.

- A blue bar is drawn when one, out of all, of these conditions are not met...Oddly enough, this...
Hi Palmer,

Thank you so much for sharing. This indicator is good and let my eyes see better !
  • #21,943
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:03am Feb 10, 2010 8:03am
Sold the cable at 5636 on a shorter timeframe per the 4hr signal. Took out 23 on one, still holding.

That was a huge inverted hammer on the previous bar, hope it plays out for the rest of the day...

Previous Swissie trade stopped out for net -10.
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  • #21,944
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:17am Feb 10, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Topgun_68
I've been struggling with my $$$ management lately. I took on the AUD/USD yesterday and it went up to +26 real quick and then turned around and became a 60 pip loss. On the other hand when I take a quick profit by closing half of my position and moving my stop to BE than I tend to miss out on big runs. Do you set a target for when to close a portion of your position or just wing it? My last 5 or so trades went up 20+ pips just to turn around and become losers so now I am highly considering taking a small profit and going to BE from now on. I just...

Just saw this...

The 1st target for me is about 20 and as you said those can happen very quickly. If you took out 20 on the first position then you could widen your stop from break even to 10 pips below b/e. That give you a little more room and if stopped out you are still up 10. Or say you go in with 1.0 lots and take out .80 on that first 20 pips. You can then make your remaining stop even larger and still come out ahead. Yes, I've been stopped out countless times after taking out that first 20 or so and leaving the remaining at b/e and still miss a big run. But, over time with a nice TC, even that b/e stop will not get hit and you do catch a nice run. That happened last week with the cable trade I put in and took out 310. The best way to play it is to put a stop above the previous candle hi (or low) but sometime that can be very large. Look at my previous post, that long inverted hammer candle would be too large of a stop but I will still give it some room to play out. Taking out 20 here and there is fine, if you can do that consistently it's even better. My philosophy is to lock in what I can when I can. If my remaining positions get stopped out at b/e that still is not a loss. If you are getting hit at b/e quite often then missing the 'ride', take out 3/4 of the position or so at 20 and widen the remaining stop a little to where you are still positive even if that gets hit. Or, just go in with a lower leverage where the % loss is still the same but give the stop even more room to play out. There are numerous options to let you use a wider stop and still catch a run. Once you do that consistently you'll find that 50 pips at 0.3 lots can feel just as good as 50 pips at 1.3 lots....

The $ is great but I feel that more winners vs. losers is even better....
  • #21,945
  • Feb 10, 2010 2:58pm Feb 10, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting Palmer
OK:

Here's v2.0 for the BullBearSlide indicator. It paints a blue bar instead of a null or black bar so you can 'see' it better...

Nice one Plamer. I will have a look at using that.

Any one watching Ozzie Dollar? Bounce off 21ema for a run back to 89sma???

Have a buy order in as the Daily is at a W.C of a possible A-B-C correction and has made a Bullish reversal from the oversold zone. The 1H timeframe also is oversold and may reverse. A TC may form on the 4H MACD. Tweezer type candle formation on the 1H..... lots of signals so lets see how it goes.

Cheers

Neil
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  • #21,946
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:54pm Feb 10, 2010 3:54pm
Thanks for all the awesome $$$ management advice. I actually took your advice today. I took on an inverted hammer on my favorite pair GBP/JPY and closed .3 of my position for 48 pips and let the other .3 break even. I think it also just gives you a confidence boost seeing positive numbers in your account than losses that we're positive .

Topgun


Quoting Palmer
Just saw this...

The 1st target for me is about 20 and as you said those can happen very quickly. If you took out 20 on the first position then you could widen your stop from break even to 10 pips below b/e. That give you a little more room and if stopped out you are still up 10. Or say you go in with 1.0 lots and take out .80 on that first 20 pips. You can then make your remaining stop even larger and still come out ahead. Yes, I've been stopped out countless times after taking out that first 20 or so and leaving the remaining at b/e and still...
  • #21,947
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:22pm Feb 10, 2010 4:22pm
Glad it helps..the GBPJPY is a WILD pair....still in the GBPUSD. Looks like a gap is trying to form so we'll see how it plays out. Lot's of support around the 5560 area...only time will tell.
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  • #21,948
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:36pm Feb 10, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting neilbuc
Nice one Plamer. I will have a look at using that.

Any one watching Ozzie Dollar? Bounce off 21ema for a run back to 89sma???

Have a buy order in as the Daily is at a W.C of a possible A-B-C correction and has made a Bullish reversal from the oversold zone. The 1H timeframe also is oversold and may reverse. A TC may form on the 4H MACD. Tweezer type candle formation on the 1H..... lots of signals so lets see how it goes.

Cheers

Neil
Neil,
I would be very careful with your trade...going long. Price recently broke out of box range and broke below the TL I have in on the daily. I'm looking for a signal to go short, if there is one
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  • #21,949
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:53pm Feb 10, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting Palmer
Glad it helps..the GBPJPY is a WILD pair....still in the GBPUSD. Looks like a gap is trying to form so we'll see how it plays out. Lot's of support around the 5560 area...only time will tell.
Looks like price is in a channel, but I'm sure you already have seen this. Longer term I believe a short trade will present itself. I'm going to look for something around the top of the channel, a lower high or even one of your trades where you take 20 pips from the top resistance line and let the rest run to see if it take out the bottom of the price channel. Nice pips for you last week, congrats
Raymond
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  • #21,950
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:17pm Feb 10, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Based on lower TFs (H4-H1-M15), seems to me that this pair have a little bullish sentiment for now. The previous support TL is still holding strong and watching the next sell signal nearby 50sma @ H4.
Watching rectangular are if there is possibility for TC downside signal. I could be wrong anyway. Predicting this based on my indys...

Cheers
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  • #21,951
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:26am Feb 11, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Morelands
Neil,
I would be very careful with your trade...going long. Price recently broke out of box range and broke below the TL I have in on the daily. I'm looking for a signal to go short, if there is one
Thanks for the heads up. I guess this is where two people can analyse a situation and come up with different expectations.

I use EW for daily charts. There was employment data out this morning and that has caused it to move in the correct direction for me.

I have closed half for +100 and set rest at +34 to lock it in.
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  • #21,952
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:56am Feb 11, 2010 3:56am
Quoting Morelands
Neil,
I would be very careful with your trade...going long. Price recently broke out of box range and broke below the TL I have in on the daily. I'm looking for a signal to go short, if there is one
Some more infothis time weekly, showing that you are correct about looking for shorts on the larger timeframe.

Even if the EW counts are wrong after a 5 Wave impulsive pattern we should have a corrective A-B-C decline (or complex A-B-C-D-E) that should normally complete it a Timeframe of 0.382% - 0.618% of the previous Trend. You can see that this time is not yet up, so any low would be a temp one. In this case it may be a W.1 of C that has completed and we will go up to complete W.2 of C before heading lower. (C waves normally split into 5 Wave Pattern)

All complicated stuff!!!

Anyhoo. Kinda off topic, so I will stop now.
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  • #21,953
  • Feb 11, 2010 6:46am Feb 11, 2010 6:46am
Looks like the 4 majors are consolidating right now. Stopped out of the cable trade for the + 23. Unemployment claims due in about :45.

Need to break out of these ranges before another 4hr trade....
  • #21,954
  • Edited 10:59pm Feb 11, 2010 6:03pm | Edited 10:59pm
work ..
  • #21,955
  • Feb 15, 2010 4:47pm Feb 15, 2010 4:47pm
I've got an extremely busy week this week which takes priority over trading...see ya next week.

Trade smart.
  • #21,956
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:16pm Feb 15, 2010 8:16pm
This is the Daily chart of the GBP. Looking for price to go back to the blue rectangle and then looking for an entry on the 4 hr. Let's wait and see
Raymond
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  • #21,957
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:07pm Feb 16, 2010 8:07pm
Well, so far so good. Price on the daily has gone back to the resistance area (blue rectangle) Previous resistance from the daily 21 (see arrow) and where price has found support before. On the 4 hr the 89 has provided resistance and price appears to be in a channel. What does concern me is the strong belt holding candle on the 4hr up to the 89
Raymond
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  • #21,958
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:11pm Feb 16, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting Morelands
Well, so far so good. Price on the daily has gone back to the resistance area (blue rectangle) Previous resistance from the daily 21 (see arrow) and where price has found support before. On the 4 hr the 89 has provided resistance and price appears to be in a channel. What does concern me is the strong belt holding candle on the 4hr up to the 89
Raymond

so which mean...??GU will further drop?
  • #21,959
  • Feb 17, 2010 2:13am Feb 17, 2010 2:13am
Short Signal at RE... 1st time i participate in this thread, so trade with half of normal position
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Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #21,960
  • Edited Feb 18, 2010 8:25am Feb 17, 2010 4:09pm | Edited Feb 18, 2010 8:25am
Quoting booyu
so which mean...??GU will further drop?
Sorry if it was not clear. Yes, it was and is for a short trade. You can see on the daily how price had found support off of the 21MA previously (see red vert. line) and how price found support in that previous range and now would act as resistance. On the 4 hr you can see the 2 doji off of the 89 MA providing additional resistance. So the reason I wanted to sell around this area was b/c of price would have to go against the trend plus the other areas noted above. On the 1 hour I wanted to make sure the 1 hr candle had broken though the 61.8 fib (actually it is the 38.2, I set it that way for profit targets in the future) from the previous move. That fib level was critical in that channel. A more aggressive move would have been to enter after the 2 dojis on the 4hr and watched price carefully around that fib level. Anyways, I have closed 1/2 of my position at the bottom of the 1 hr channel and we'll see what happens to the rest.

Edit: I'm out. Closed after USD employment and PPI # came out and price looked like it wanted to go against me
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