Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

nice USDX charts, yeap this time whoops!!

thats what I call a one touch trade : U/C long at R>S 1.0420

[quote=Patience;3468965]Mmmmmmm - haven't checked USDCAD. I was just in the other room and heard this popping sound. I thought I'm not cooking popcorn then realised it was all the stops going off in E/U

that's the best post I've read all day )

Thanks for your USD charts Patience, have been looking for them. And great thread, another lovely tool for the box.

Short Silver, one more time!! ,if the R doesnt hold expect some nice move up

Patience, I wonder if you see a bullish Hidden Divergence in 4Hr USDX ,
I suspect if it could be a buying opportunity, thanx

Yeah, there is but we'll need some PA confirmation. Unfortunately I access USDX on Netdania so I can't run GodfreyH's MT4 Jurik indicator on the chart and have to do it by eye. Just noticed that dinky H&S on daily chart RSI - worked out rather well didn't it. Also, chop is probably to be expected around this area since it was a resting point on the way down last year.

Hey Kim - I hide out here most of the time. Post your thoughts if you have time






FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010 18:50 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.17 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 21.8% lower than yesterday and 8.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.3% weaker than yesterday and 9.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.53 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.9% lower than yesterday and 11.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 4.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.6% weaker than yesterday and 7.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.6% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.7% higher than yesterday and 28.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.8% weaker than yesterday and 3.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.6% lower than yesterday and 14.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 5.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.6% weaker than yesterday and 6.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.44 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.04 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 24.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.2% lower than yesterday and 30.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.7% weaker than yesterday and 4.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.68 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.52 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 29.0% lower than yesterday and 29.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 36.0% lower than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 31.8% weaker than yesterday and 17.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.61 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.37 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 19.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 4.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.08 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 20.4% lower than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 26.7% lower than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 23.6% weaker than yesterday and 11.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

hi guys
i try know more about cot, ssi ,...

and thank you shahab
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/b5...6izpkbmoz2.jpg


Intraday Highlight:



AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.66 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 9.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 5.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/0v...6mmikdi0fd.jpg








DailyFX - SSI:

SSI Details:


[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/m/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-4.png[/IMG]EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.21 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 13.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 1.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 8.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.22 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.1% higher than yesterday and 22.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 23.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 3.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.1% higher than yesterday and 17.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 24.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.6% stronger than yesterday and 7.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.60 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.67 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 11.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 13.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 7.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.40 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.51 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 20.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 36.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.72 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.92 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.6% lower than yesterday and 53.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 17.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.1% weaker than yesterday and 20.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.66 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 9.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 5.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.10 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 13.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 10.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Thanks Patience. I am a little annoyed today. No news feed from my broker (not that I trade the news but I like to know what`s going on )
And to top it off we are getting another snowstorm. Bah humbug.

I am pretty flat and not in a trade at the moment, can`t bring myself to short the AUD at the moment. Gold and silver still look bullish to me. Had a nice little short on the EUR yesterday, but I closed that as well as I am confused at the charts. The news makes it a bit more volatile.

I also am getting annoyed at the such random calls in the AUD thread. I don`t mind once in a while, but it`s getting to the point that it`s making me dizzy.
Think I may start a journal here sometime this year.

If I have something mind boggling to post I will thanks, otherwise I will quietly read the most interesting thread here

welcome to this thread Kim,
hope you find it useful-
btw, if you like to post your trade calls here, you can do so- it's more COT/SSI based thead but I keep posting my technical analysis here and the trade set up and follow up- Also Patience is very kind to share his invaluable analysis here.

tarde follow up
Long U/C-
just one touch

Gold short- is it random?

this is DJI- if that R holds- forget about selling anything vs USD fro the next 3-4 weeks

G/U
the sell limit missed by few pips- I entered manually

Thanks Shahab, I am a bit confused this morning. The dow and S&P were up, but gold and the currencies fell quickly, is it because of the low volume, or is there some news that`s missing?

Would like to hear your thoughts, and nice trade on gold btw.

Hi kim ,
here are what I think,
1- S&P and DJI are touching their S>R level so they may or may not head lower in a day or two
2-Gold is still resilint , I expected that to fall more that it did already,having said that I'm bearish on Gold as fas as R at 1125 holds, otherwise I close my short positions
3-Aussie is super strong, I've been thinking lately if a person is wise enough he/she should tarde short E/U and Long A/U regardless of the chart- because you have the crowd behind you- all the world (net positions) selling E/U and buying A/U no matter what

Thank you. I have the same thoughts on AUD, I have a hard time being bearish on the pair. I have been thinking if it hits the daily pivot I may put in a small long. Just looking ahead at gold at the monthly, it may be a safe bet.

do you remember, I told you about hidden Bullish Dive on 4H on USDX???
I was about to take some big USD long last night, but I hesitate-
well there will always be another trade

thats true, Long A/U at any pivot has proven to be a super safe bet since march 09

Don't know about invaluable - lol - you're too kind. And, just so you know, I'm a chick I like being one of the boys though

Well we got PA confirmation all right on that bullish divergence you spotted on USDX 4 hour. Good call. I'm kicking myself for not selling EUR. Too much fussing around with A/J and trying to suss whether I should short AUD. Even my A/J longs didn't hit target today and, unlike Goldmen with AIG, I had to take a haircut on my profit as my tight stops were hit whilst I was elsewhere.

A/J short pending at 83.30- actually R at 82.70 may cause some trade opportunity too but I prefer to sell below 83.30