Mechanical trend trading

Hi guys,

Fibonacci ratio is passionating, remind me the movie "23" with Jim Carrey

"Take honeybees, for example. If you divide the female bees by the male bees in any given hive, you will get 1.618.
Sunflowers, which have opposing spirals of seeds, have a 1.618 ratio between the diameters of each rotation.
This same ratio can be seen in relationships between different components throughout nature.
Try measuring from your shoulder to your fingertips, and then divide this number by the length from your elbow to your fingertips, or try measuring from your head to your feet, and divide that by the length from your belly button to your feet.
Are the results the same? Somewhere in the area of 1.618? The golden ratio is seemingly unavoidable.

Justin Kuepper"


Billy

what a snoozer

Hi Fed,


as I am a German born in France with a basic english I am not sure if I have to understand something in your message...


Billy

Hi Billy, what I mean is that the markets are not moving at all and very slow price action. The meaning of snooze is to take a brief light sleep, so the markets are taking a brief light sleep (resting)..

Here is Canada it is the long weekend, it is a family day, that could be the reason why usd/cad, there was only about 50 pips movement with this pair since the week began.. and most majors are consolidating.

Oh sorry Fed,

as I said my english is not that good so I misunderstand some...

I thought "snoozer" meant something else, sorry again Fed for my bad english, I feel shy and stupid...


Regards,
Billy

No don't feel that way, as I can see your English is not bad at all.....

Here is a nice breakout strategy, it is more conservative entry, I use to follow this kind of entries in the past but I got more confidence with my aggresive entries.

For example when the 4 hour trend breaks then only look entries to the direction of the new trend. So the price will break and then it will retrace to the 50%, 61% or even higher level, the way the price will retace is in a form of a tunnel(channel) usually, so if the main (4hour) trend break from an uptrend and now we should expect the price to trend to the downside, the price then will retrace up to lets say 61% in a form of a tunnel, draw the line to look for a break to the downside. Look at the screenshot and you will notice some nice breaks. After the break the price made LL and retraced for a LH in a form of a channel and brock through the channel to make another LL. This is more conservative entries. If you are not confi enough to enter in at 61% then look for a break like that but the disadvantage would be you will miss-out those pips but have a higher win ratio. As a trader it is your choice to which entry to follow. The SLs are always set up on top of the last high or low. The way you can project the TP is that you take the distance from the last swing and measure it then measure the TP from the new swing high or low.Here is a nice breakout strategy. For example when the 4 hour trend breaks then only look entries to the direction of the new trend. So the price will break and then it will retrace to the 50%, 61% or even higher level, the way the price will retace is in a form of a tunnel usually, so if the main trend break from an uptrend and now we should expect the price to trend to the downside, the price then will retrace up to lets say 61% in a form of a tunnel, draw the line to look for a break to the downside. Look at the screenshot and you will notice some nice breaks. After the break the price made LL and retraced for a LH in a form of a channel and brock through the channel to make another LL. This is more conservative entries. If you are not confi enough to enter in at 61% then look for a break like that but the disadvantage would be you will miss-out those pips but have a higher win ratio. As a trader it is your choise to which entry to follow. The SLs are always set up on top of the last high or low. The way you can project the TP is that you take the distance from the last swing and measure it then measure the TP from the new swing high or low.

Excellent work Matt! Thanks again.

I like this setup.

I have indicated 2 types of entries, the first entry is 5-10 pips below 50% (89.50, 89.40) and the 2nd entry is at the break of that uptrend channel and it looks like around 88.50 88.25(on the chart will show 88.75, I am correcting that).
89.50 lines up perfectly with 50% fib level and also prev support that got broken now will be a resistance which also lines up around 50% fib line and not to mention the round#. This one is not an intraday setup, if you take the trade, you need to be patient to take profit because it could take up to a week for it to move to your TPs. We are talking about 250pips to target here.

Ok so most major pairs are in tight ranges just consolidating for the past day or so, due to long weekends in the UK, Canada, US and China. I went to my Chinese massage therapist today and she told me that it is the Chinese new year and gave me some ginseng candies. I was reading some news today, in UK it was a bank holiday, in US having their President's day and here in Canada we are having our family day. All of that is effecting price action to consolidate. Expect some nice breakouts soon from their consolidation periods.

I think there is a trend change, the usd/chf has broken the uptrend and also usd/cad as well. The rivals to those 2 pairs eur/usd also has broken the downtrend and and probably will head north if it is not a faulse break. I think a week or 2 weeks ago I have mentioned that eur/usd might change direction which was too early of a call Things are confusing and risky now. I have closed the aud/usd manualy with a smaller loss. I will wait for now for the market to make a clear path.

Look at the 2 screenshots. broken trendlines

Paulus, fed

One doubt I have over is the break of a TL. The TL we draw are subjective at best. So, how do know the break of a TL on my chart is for real or not. I mean for all sense and purpose the price might just come back within the TL.

Sorry, if that sounds a little dumb.

Hi Vicky ag,

One way to determine if the TL has been brocken is to look for a breakout and a retest (breakout pullback continuation pattern). What was once support should now be resistance and visa-versa.

Yana

Hi Vicky,ag

a trend is defined by having

higher high and higher lows for an up trend

Lower high and lower lows for a down trend

If you look at the posted chart we have just had a HH but the long term up trend has been broken.......

We need to watch now will be in the next few hours make a lower low at the ?

we need also to see a lower high go in and a lower low go in we then have out 2 point referance to draw a down trend.

Hope that helps

just thing HH HL up trend LH LL down trend

Paulus

Here is a long opportunity with aud/usd if price retraces to the 50% fib level @0.8900 or the price can take off to higher levels. The main downtrend has broken and looks like the pair is making HH since the break and if the price retraces to the 8900 are then I will take the trade from there......

the retracement to the .07000 will be a great entry, you can also look for a breakout entries from the retracement that will either form in a tunel(channel) shape, some times it forms a penant(triagle) or an M or W shapes. Look for a breakout from those price patterns. this will give better win ration rather then entering in right away.

Thanks for the tips fed and for detailing your system! I'm just wondering if you could possibly post some examples for these penant, M and W shape entries?

Hi all !

I took a short on usd/chf after the TL broken on a pull back on 1 hour but went out at BE...

Waiting to see what will happen next.

I am short on gby/yen (142.85, SL 143.25) and aud/usd (0.9020, SL 0.9040), same as Fed on aud/usd but on 61.8% fibonacci and price action.

The next step is gartley pattern and wolf wave Mindsphere...


Regards,
Billy

Check eur/gbp, right now there is a very nice set up going...


Billy