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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #3,861
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:22am Feb 15, 2010 10:22am
I was just thinking...it seems that every week there is some crazy run by some pairs/crosses...last week it was the eur/aud, eur/cad...the week before that it was the eur/usd...before that it was the eur/gbp...i wonder which one it will be this week?...hmmm...which one will give that 400 pips, 500pips move...hmmm.....

Interestingly, CUSTOS was in every one of these trades with his TT.
  • #3,862
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:29am Feb 15, 2010 10:29am
Quoting EntropyLad
I was just thinking...it seems that every week there is some crazy run by some pairs/crosses...last week it was the eur/aud, eur/cad...the week before that it was the eur/usd...before that it was the eur/gbp...i wonder which one it will be this week?...hmmm...which one will give that 400 pips, 500pips move...hmmm.....

Interestingly, CUSTOS was in every one of these trades with his TT.
haha, that was more luck than anything else. But I agree, the TT's can put you into some fabulous trades. That's why I like combining these three entry strategies: TT's, candlesticks & bpc. Well, if you can't get into a good trade using all of these three, I don't know what can. haha.
  • #3,863
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:32am Feb 15, 2010 10:32am
Quoting EntropyLad
I was just thinking...it seems that every week there is some crazy run by some pairs/crosses...last week it was the eur/aud, eur/cad...the week before that it was the eur/usd...before that it was the eur/gbp...i wonder which one it will be this week?...hmmm...which one will give that 400 pips, 500pips move...hmmm.....

Interestingly, CUSTOS was in every one of these trades with his TT.
And I could imagine that the jpy pairs could start racing this week. Have been consolidating for a while.
  • #3,864
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:49am Feb 15, 2010 10:49am
Thats interesting ... Custos is a rich pipster .... I'll start paying more attention to these TTs ...i did went through BRVs stuff ....now i want put everthing together in practicing these trades. I am glad I am around some veterans.

Yesterday i spent a lot of time in fine tuning my fib analysis through Robert C Miner materials ...but i am feeling that MT4 need to improve it Fibonnaci tools and realted features ....one of the feature i really like from Dynamic trading software is to be able to keep only the fib cluster one is interested in and deleteing other unwanted fib levels in order to reduce the clutter on chart however when we try to do that in MT4 it actually takes out the deleted fibs from within the tool due to which everytime one would have to enter the fib levels again and again .....

Quoting EntropyLad
I was just thinking...it seems that every week there is some crazy run by some pairs/crosses...last week it was the eur/aud, eur/cad...the week before that it was the eur/usd...before that it was the eur/gbp...i wonder which one it will be this week?...hmmm...which one will give that 400 pips, 500pips move...hmmm.....

Interestingly, CUSTOS was in every one of these trades with his TT.
  • #3,865
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:53am Feb 15, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Custos
haha, that was more luck than anything else. But I agree, the TT's can put you into some fabulous trades. That's why I like combining these three entry strategies: TT's, candlesticks & bpc. Well, if you can't get into a good trade using all of these three, I don't know what can. haha.
I know. which goes to the whining 20% guy. JPY could do the honours this week.
I am still in demo with TT...hopefully, by march beginning, i will be ready to dip my toes in it...i find it mildly reassuring that even my UN-INTENTIONALLY wrong setup TT trades, like the usd/cad, usd/sgd, aud/jpy from last week, and today's gbp/cad still produce some results. Which is mildly reassuring that even when i am wrong, i am not completely wrong -- which goes to your +80% ratio you mentioned.

Of course, i did not take this GBP/CAD trade this morning, intentionally taking a trade setup that is wrong, even though it may later work; is far worse than taking a right trade setup that fails. DISCIPLINE OVER CONVICTION. Protecting psychological capital is paramount.
  • #3,866
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:05am Feb 15, 2010 11:05am
Quoting EntropyLad
hey, CUSTOS, it is almost there...almost...are you going to TT GBP/CAD at 1.6450?...it doesnt meet rule #7 of my criteria...But...maybe good for you...
Hi Entropy,

I have missed your posting of your rules, would you mind giving me the link please.

Thanx a mill
  • #3,867
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:10am Feb 15, 2010 11:10am
Quoting EntropyLad
I know. which goes to the whining 20% guy....
Yeah Guys, add to that the high R:R ratio's (i.e. last weeks EUR/CAD 1:13) and then you end up with only having to get it right a few times to be OK - but it is not about being just OK. We strive to improve and constantly get it right, going for the +80% with a high R:R
  • #3,868
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:11am Feb 15, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Entropy,

I have missed your posting of your rules, would you mind giving me the link please.

Thanx a mill

My TT rules?

It is not the definitive rule on TT...it is the one i combed and recombined for myself that makes sense to me and still demo trading it to see if it works. So, it is not definitive.

Anyways, here it is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3780

For any major questions on TT, consult our resident sniper expert: CUSTOS

(in fact, i used his suggestions to modify some of the rules)
  • #3,869
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:12am Feb 15, 2010 11:12am
Quoting EntropyLad
DISCIPLINE OVER CONVICTION. Protecting psychological capital is paramount.
Way to Go!
  • #3,870
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:26am Feb 15, 2010 11:26am
Quoting EntropyLad
My TT rules?

It is not the definitive rule on TT...it is the one i combed and recombined for myself that makes sense to me and still demo trading it to see if it works. So, it is not definitive.

Anyways, here it is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3780

For any major questions on TT, consult our resident sniper expert: CUSTOS

(in fact, i used his suggestions to modify some of the rules)

thnx I surely will be consulting our TT-pip-consultant, the man has the touch with TT's
  • #3,871
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:45am Feb 15, 2010 11:45am
Quoting Paulette
thnx I surely will be consulting our TT-pip-consultant, the man has the touch with TT's
This week we will "milk" the TT-ies trades.
  • #3,872
  • Feb 15, 2010 12:04pm Feb 15, 2010 12:04pm
I am sure hoping the Asian session has more life to it than this session has had....

--NM
  • #3,873
  • Edited 3:03pm Feb 15, 2010 2:51pm | Edited 3:03pm
[I made the mistake of writing "retracement low/high" instead of "swing low/high" -- two completely opposite things. As such, i have made the correction and repost the rules, since i am locked out of editing posts over 24hrs old. I also add the link that i think is a solid definition of S/R levels by WMD. Of course, it goes without saying, CUSTOS suggestion is part of the rules too.]

Entropy's TT rules

Here is what my experimental style is going to be(probably too conservative for some people).

Anyways, here are the tentative rules:

#1. Look for slanted trendline and 3 SMA alignment to determine trend direction on WEEKLY --> DAILY--> H4.

#2. Look for pristine, clear, solid, horizontal S/R consolidation sitting obviously at RN levels. Ignore all other levels and consolidations, regardless of how good looking. (for what a true S/R level is suppose to look like, consult this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=22 )

#3. Look for one of these exact FIB levels(38, 50, 61) closely sitting within a range of +/- 15 pips from that RN and S/R consolidation. It must not be more than +/- 15 pips. No deviation. The tighter the better.

#4. Any random price action consolidation right in front of expected entry point must be at least 30 pips away from that entry point. Again, no deviation.

#5. And any breakout from that random price action consolidation in rule #4 must take at least TWO candlesticks to reach expected entry point, otherwise, the momentum is too high when the distance between consolidation and entry is covered in just one single candle move.

#6. Entry point is +/- 5 pips off that RN. SL = -20 to -25 pips away from entry or behind the next minor S/R level on 1/4th or 1/8th time frame of where the setup was found. 1st PT = +20 to +25 pips away from entry.

#7. The distance between swing low/high and entry point must be at least 100 pips. No deviation.

#8. Avoid any trade that sets you against recent slanted trendline breaks, as these breaks may spur slanted trendline collapse momentum moves.

#9. Avoid red-labeled and orange-labeled news by at least 2hrs. Avoid INTEREST RATE DAYS.

#10. Avoid bank holidays.
  • #3,874
  • Edited 4:03pm Feb 15, 2010 3:28pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Havent got round to trying it as of yet...

IŽll check it out with more time and let you know... but it does sound very interesting. Lets see what it can do
Pipalicious and others,

Since we are on the issue of EA, I am curious, if it is possible to write an EA that trades LOB only. The EA must have certain characteristics:

#1. Must be capable of pattern recognition(triangles, rectangles or boxes). We already have pattern recognition software.

#2. Must be coded to look for these patterns starting from tokyo session till EURO session 9am, only.

#3. Must be coded to look for at least, 2 days of unidirectional moves before asian session consolidation. There are EAs that can detect consecutive higher highs or lower lows on daily, h4, h1 basis, as such, this part shouldn't be that difficult.

#4 Must be coded to not initiate any entry unless price breakouts within 7am and 9am london time. There are EAs that trade box breakouts...not sure this part will be that difficult either.

#5. Must be coded to not initiate any entry unless it spots a BPC formation(we already have EAs that trade box breakouts, as such, this part shouldnt be that difficult. Just tell it to wait a full 15 minutes after the close of breakout to place order at the highest/lowest low of breakout candle.= that is essentially a BPC for you. )

#6. Must be coded to sell 1/2 at the next RN and the rest at the next ADR +/- 20 pips. (there are ADR-based EAs already in existence.)

#7. Only GBP or EUR pairs/crosses

#8. Tell it to avoid news by 2hrs. It must be linked to the news website.

#9. SL = length of breakout candle X 3. That should be good enough.


Not sure it will be particularly difficult. Sometimes, i wish i have the programming skills to do some of these things...
  • #3,875
  • Feb 15, 2010 3:47pm Feb 15, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Pipalicious and others,

Since we are on the issue of EA, I am curious, if it is possible to write an EA that trades LOB only. The EA must have certain characteristics:

#1. Must be capable of pattern recognition(triangles, rectangles or boxes). We already have pattern recognition software.

#2. Must be coded to look for these patterns starting from tokyo session till EURO session 9am, only.

#3. Must be coded to look for at least, 2 days of unidirectional moves before asian session consolidation. There are EAs that can detect consecutive...
Is this the stem cell research of FOREX?

--NM
  • #3,876
  • Feb 15, 2010 4:14pm Feb 15, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting NightMoves
Is this the stem cell research of FOREX?

--NM
Every aspect of that EA has already been solved or in existence, combining them into one package-- that is what is missing. If done, it will be interesting to see how it works out...i wont be surprised at all if it is successful, given the track record of LOB trades. The pattern recognition aspect of the EA will need strong stringency though.

I can imagine how a sales man will tout this: Forex Trading Robot that Double your Money Every 4months! Only need to trade 2hrs per day! Buy one, get one free! Buy one with a side order of cheetos!

Hahahaha.

A hard lesson about EAs....

http://grailtrading.blogspot.com/

It is a sobering read. I like reading this every now and then...it is a cautionary tale. A MUST READ.
  • #3,877
  • Feb 15, 2010 6:43pm Feb 15, 2010 6:43pm
Hey guys....

When you are looking for an appropriate LOB trade, what type of range do you typically get during the Tokyo session? 20 pips? 30 pips? I know that you want it to be as tight a range as possible but I'm curious what is the norm.
  • #3,878
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:13pm Feb 15, 2010 7:13pm
Quoting Pip Dawg
Hey guys....

When you are looking for an appropriate LOB trade, what type of range do you typically get during the Tokyo session? 20 pips? 30 pips? I know that you want it to be as tight a range as possible but I'm curious what is the norm.
.
Tighter than a virgin.

(on a more serious note, all LOB questions are already answered here:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3430898&postcount=2997 )

.
  • #3,879
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:56pm Feb 15, 2010 7:56pm
Anybody watching anything good for the London open?

--NM
  • #3,880
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:20pm Feb 15, 2010 8:20pm
Hey guys, this is what i see so far. This is my point of view of course see if it coincides with anyone else aswell...


- cad/jpy 1h Flat Top Triangle/Rectangle long breakout = 86.00

- eur/nzd 1h Flat Bottom Triangle short breakout = 194.50

- aud/chf 1h Range breakout long = 0.9600

- eur/cad 1h Flat Top Triangle short = 1.4250

- eur/aud 1h Range Breakout short = 1.5300

- usd/cad 1h Range Breakout short = 1.0450

- eur/gbp 1h Range Breakout short = 0.8670

- eur/usd 1h Range Breakout short = 1.3570

- gbp/usd 4h Range Breakout short = 1.5550

I think we are in for a series of strong breakouts in the following day or two. Markets have got their breath back IMHO. Lets see what happens.

Pip
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