Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #181
  • Feb 14, 2010 1:32pm Feb 14, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
I think there is a bit more downside before a bounce of any circumstance will be made. Much like you chart shows the rebound in SEP '08 could be big.
yeah, it's probable- but RRR wise its not a bad idea to try a short term long when you get a buy signal- look at Div at 4H-
well Div is not always indicate a reversal/correction- but they increase it's probability- if the R is broken why not !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #182
  • Feb 15, 2010 5:11am Feb 15, 2010 5:11am
Written by Danske Bank Feb 15 10

The latest IMM data covers the week from 2 to 9 February.
Concerns over fiscal sustainability continue to be a key driver of financial markets and have seen the flight from the euro, and pro-cyclical currencies in general, continue.
European debt woes continue to attract the market's attention and speculative investors have added to the record EUR shorts seen last week. As a share of open interest, short positions have reached close to 30% which does point to an increasingly crowded trade. In turn, this could spell upside risk for EUR/USD if the positions were to be unwound. However, one should bear in mind that such positioning can stay in place for a prolonged period, and in the EUR's case it may do so unless we see a credible solution to tackle the situation in the PIGS countries.
Speculative investors continue to shed positions in pro-cyclical currencies, in particular taking off their AUD and CAD longs. At the same time, long positions in defensive currencies are built, causing USD longs to reach the highest level since the Lehman bust.
Despite the ‘sell-risk, buy defensive' sentiment reflected in the latest IMM positions, speculative investors have also added to their short positions in CHF. This seems to suggest that SNB intervention fear dominates any CHF safe-haven characteristics – a fear that we can certainly subscribe to at the current levels. Speculative investors have also added to GBP shorts, perhaps as a result of the failure of the BoE to terminate its asset purchase programme at the latest MPC meeting.
Attached Image
  • #183
  • Feb 15, 2010 6:48am Feb 15, 2010 6:48am
U/C buy a retest of R>S at 1.04200 SL 1.0300,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #184
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:37am Feb 15, 2010 7:37am
E/U- ending daigonal at 4H- now 4th, one more down to go 5th- then buy a clear break of 1.3700, aiming 1.4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #185
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:48am Feb 15, 2010 10:48am
G/U symmetric triangle in 4H, textbook speaking bearish , but they are tricky, I will sell a probable fasle upward breakout then heading south
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #186
  • Feb 16, 2010 12:46am Feb 16, 2010 12:46am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U- ending daigonal at 4H- now 4th, one more down to go 5th- then buy a clear break of 1.3700, aiming 1.4
Are you basing on COT reports to determine this direction, or solely basing on technical analysis ?
  • #187
  • Feb 16, 2010 6:40am Feb 16, 2010 6:40am
Quoting siewhf
Are you basing on COT reports to determine this direction, or solely basing on technical analysis ?
hi siewhf,
if you read my posts you would see I mentioned E/U COT index is bearish extreme-(we expect a correction in the major trend with extremes),however the timing is not easy, in an aggressivley trendy market -like E/U now- COT could be extreme for some weeks before a correction happens-so I rely on technical to spot that
  • #188
  • Feb 16, 2010 6:59am Feb 16, 2010 6:59am
A/U bullish trend still intact- S>R at .90 below the .61 fib level may hold this beast, DAX index made a bearish flag and risk aversion in sight I'm not convinced of this uptrend to last for long, unless stocks start to head higher agian.


sell limit at .8990 SL= 40 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2a.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dax1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #189
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:03am Feb 16, 2010 7:03am
my last week charts on A/U and Gold
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-3.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-4a.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #190
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:07am Feb 16, 2010 7:07am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U bullish trend still intact- S>R at .90 below the .61 fib level may hold this beast, DAX index made a bearish flag and risk aversion in sight I'm not convinced of this uptrend to last for long, unless stocks start to head higher agian.


sell limit at .8990 SL= 40 pips
Hi Shahab - funny you should say that because I was just thinking that if AUD wanted to turn around it's got a few good reasons. 50% fib, 200 EMA resistance on 4 hour, previous monthly 76.4% fib, previous support (circled) now resistance. Like you said, gonna need risk to come off more though since decision not to raise was finely balanced. They were more worried about Europe's sovereign debt probs apparently. Makes you wonder what other countries are hiding "off balance sheet" doesn't it? In saying that though, if this is the high for the week then do I expect to see it at 86.50 by the end of the week, assuming it does it's very average 300 pips per week? Not sure ..... risk is really going to have to come off and from what I've heard from earnings so far this morning, they are exceeding expectations.

Do you want to see FXCM's sentiment index?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-4hour2.jpg Size: 172 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #191
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:30am Feb 16, 2010 7:30am
Quoting shahab8b
hi siewhf,
if you read my posts you would see I mentioned E/U COT index is bearish extreme-(we expect a correction in the major trend with extremes),however the timing is not easy, in an aggressivley trendy market -like E/U now- COT could be extreme for some weeks before a correction happens-so I rely on technical to spot that
Thank you for the explanation.
  • #192
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:21am Feb 16, 2010 8:21am
Quoting Patience
Hi Shahab - funny you should say that because I was just thinking that if AUD wanted to turn around it's got a few good reasons. 50% fib, 200 EMA resistance on 4 hour, previous monthly 76.4% fib, previous support (circled) now resistance. Like you said, gonna need risk to come off more though since decision not to raise was finely balanced. They were more worried about Europe's sovereign debt probs apparently. Makes you wonder what other countries are hiding "off balance sheet" doesn't it? In saying that though, if this is the high for the week...
hi pateince,
I agree with you in A/U -actually I love to see A/U in .8650 till end of the week , but this impulsive upmoves in shorter time frame remind me of last year. well as you said, if she wants to turn that's the point if not, let her do whatever she wants, we catch her in the right place later
the direction of equities may give us some clue today.
and I'm looking forward to your FXCM'SSI
let's see if we are among the losers today !!!
  • #193
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:25am Feb 16, 2010 8:25am
USDCHF , identical to E/U ending diagonal, 5th wave up in sight then heading lower
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #194
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:37am Feb 16, 2010 8:37am
sell gold at 1115
BARR pattern in Hr, nice S we have at 1125, SL=100 , TP=TBD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g11.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #195
  • Feb 16, 2010 9:31am Feb 16, 2010 9:31am
Quoting shahab8b
hi pateince,
I agree with you in A/U -actually I love to see A/U in .8650 till end of the week , but this impulsive upmoves in shorter time frame remind me of last year. well as you said, if she wants to turn that's the point if not, let her do whatever she wants, we catch her in the right place later
the direction of equities may give us some clue today.
and I'm looking forward to your FXCM'SSI
let's see if we are among the losers today !!!
Okay, scrub that turnaround. Looks like she is going to head for 61.8% fib (of my chart) (assuming risk on). Another possibility, if 88.48 is the low for the week and assuming 300 pips up, that'll be 76.4% fib @ 91.51 Seems a little unreal though with all this nervousness in the market but those weekly candles look mighty fine. Sentiment for AUD is confirming more upside.

SSI: USDCHF Retail Interest Drops 27%, Ratio Holds Steady
Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010 10:25 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ssi3.png Size: 213 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ssi4.png Size: 149 KB


SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.17 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 7.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.3% higher than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.53 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.0% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% stronger than yesterday and 2.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.37 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 5.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.2% higher than yesterday and 27.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 12.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.60 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 1.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.5% higher than yesterday and 7.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.3% stronger than yesterday and 5.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.00 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.04 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 19.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 18.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.52 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 25.7% lower than yesterday and 26.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 27.7% lower than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 26.5% weaker than yesterday and 11.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.37 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 8.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 3.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.08 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.8% lower than yesterday and 3.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 17.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 13.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #196
  • Feb 16, 2010 10:04am Feb 16, 2010 10:04am
LONG U/C from .10414 , R>S
considering a bearish setiment on USD right now, I have 50-75 pips SL for this trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #197
  • Feb 16, 2010 10:14am Feb 16, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Patience
Okay, scrub that turnaround. Looks like she is going to head for 61.8% fib (of my chart) (assuming risk on). Another possibility, if 88.48 is the low for the week and assuming 300 pips up, that'll be 76.4% fib @ 91.51 Seems a little unreal though with all this nervousness in the market but those weekly candles look mighty fine. Sentiment for AUD is confirming more upside.

SSI: USDCHF Retail Interest Drops 27%, Ratio Holds Steady
Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010 10:25 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research


[b][color=#0070c0][font=Arial]SSI...
eeer, I just closed USDCAD short and took Longs at 1.0420-14,
that SSI , put me on the wrong side!!, well we'll see, it seems I should consider 50-75 pips SL as my today loser already!!
  • #198
  • Edited 10:38am Feb 16, 2010 10:25am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting shahab8b
eeer, I just closed USDCAD short and took Longs at 1.0420-14,
that SSI , put me on the wrong side!!, well we'll see, it seems I should consider 50-75 pips SL as my today loser already!!
Mmmmmmm - haven't checked USDCAD. I was just in the other room and heard this popping sound. I thought I'm not cooking popcorn then realised it was all the stops going off in E/U

USDX Daily

Currently at 79.76 (chart is delayed half an hour)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-daily-16feb.jpg Size: 169 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #199
  • Feb 16, 2010 10:51am Feb 16, 2010 10:51am
I'm betting on R at 1125 holds one more time- like it did before- above that I'm out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g2a.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #200
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:20am Feb 16, 2010 11:20am
USDX 1 Hour

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-1hour-16feb.jpg Size: 148 KB




USDX 4 Hour

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-4hour-16feb.jpg Size: 165 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
15 traders viewing now