Bears trading diary

Took a long position @ 1.7588 @ 7.02am London time

Thoughts and Ideas

There was still momentum for long according to the day chart and the contracting bollinger bands on the 1 hour chart and the subsequent false break according to bolly rules confirms this. The GMMA was indicating a long trade and one was taken.

Trade went 20 points in profit and set stop loss to zero as per trading rules.

Conclusion

Stopped out for a zero as week chart and the relevant bollinger bands came into play forcing the long position to be short lived. Closed out for a zero point loss.

Took a short position @ 1.7454 @ 7.18am London time

Thoughts and Ideas

The momentum had change for short do to the new york session yesterday and the top bollinger band coming into play and forcing the market short. Day chart rules indicated a short and the GMMA was confirming this, so short was taken.

Profit target of 1.7400 came from fib's on the day chart , so limit order was set.

Conclusion

Closed position in line with projected target @ 1.7404 at 9.18am London time for a profit of 50 points

Total points since diary started

50 Points

Took a long position @ 1.7395 @ 7.28am London time

Thoughts and Ideas

Current price was a long way from the day chart moving average. A couple of things could have happened according to rules because of this , 1) price could have retraced back towards the moving average , 2) price could have done nothing and waited till the moving average caught up with it , 3) could have continued the momentum for short from yesterday. When all else fails follow the GMMA. GMMA said to take a long position so a long position was taken.

Interesting to note that on the weekly chart, a flag has formed and could see price go to 1.7000 if the projection target over the next week or 2 are anything to go by.

Trade went 20 points in profit and set stop loss to zero as per trading rules.

Conclusion

Stopped out for a zero as the position was taken 20 points to late due to uncertainty on my part not being comfortable with a long position after such strong moves south in the past days. Not to worry always tomorrow.

Total points since diary started

50 Points

No position taken

Thoughts and Ideas

Market could have gone either way today. Market still had not gone back to the day chart moving average and is trading sideways waiting for the moving average to catch up. The GMMA confirmed this with a tight trading band indicating to leave alone. I was on the look out for a break below the 7350 area as on the 1 hour chart there was a flag indicating that it should go down further but on the conflicting signal on the 4 hour chart and bollinger bands rules of the false break to the opposite side of true direction indicated a long position. With all these conflicting signals and the GMMA giving no indication I decided to stay away

Conclusion

No position taken

Total points since diary started

50 Points (bloody slow week )

Long @ 1.7375 @ 7.32am London Time

Thoughts and Ideas

Day chart is still short and has not full retraced back to the moving average . Still in a trading band but moving average is starting to catch up to the price. GMMA indicated a long and a price target of 1.7400 based on the day chart moving average , so position taken long. Farm numbers out in the US later today at 1.30pm London time , so appears that this Long is just a move to set up from the day chart moving average for a decent short later in the day. Will keep an eye on the GMMA for an indication for short later in the day.

Conclusion

Missed the target by about 7 points , price starting to struggle and the day chart moving average starting to come into play. Closed position for a massive (sic) 7 Points , almost not worth getting out of bed for. Still going to keep an eye on possible shorts later in the day.

Total points since diary started

57 Points

Short @ 1.7363 @ 1.09pm London Time

Thoughts and Ideas

Was keeping an eye on shorts based on a couple of patterns , a flag in the day chart indicating a short and a pennant in the week chart also indicating a short . The days earlier move north was basically to squeeze out the last of the shorts and get a better position from the day chart moving average. GMMA had given a weak indication for short just before FARM's but based on the other things indicating a short that I have been keeping an eye on for most of the week took a position short.

Conclusion

Position moved in my direction after the FARM numbers came out and moved solidly south closed for a total of 106 points and even though I thought the move was not over and would move further south decided to take the cash and bank it for the week and leave something on the table for the others.

Total points since diary started

163 Points

Total points for the week.

163 Points

Short @ 1.7279 @ 7.52am London Time

Thoughts and Ideas

Day chart rules was suggesting short and GMMA also short, waited for the 4 hour moving average to come into play and short position taken. Expected a decent move south after the strong move on friday and weekly and daily charts projections

Conclusion

Position moved 40 points into my direction and zero stop set after 20 points in profit. Market moved south and expected it to continue, but came down and formed a double bottom on the 15 minute chart and the proceeded to drift north for the next couple of hours , came back to the 4 hour moving average and again expected a move sotuh but nothing came about of it and drifted north again . Market came back to break even and position and zero stop taken out. Closed for zero points.

Total points since diary started

163 Points

Total points for the week.

0 Points

Long @ 1.7361 @ 7.07am London Time

Thoughts and Ideas

Day chart rules was suggesting long and GMMA was also long. Took a position unfortunately at the top of what turned out to be a channel, which lasted till the current account numbers came out from New York later in the afternoon. It appeared that price wanted to do a fib ratio across the day chart moving average and had a profit target of 1.7435 which was also the top bollinger band on the day chart.

Conclusion

Market drift sideways for most of the morning and bounced between +5 and -20 on the profit/loss stakes for nearly the whole of the London session. Was not happy about this but stuck to my guns and held the position. The price moved along the day chart moving average and this eventually became support and as new york numbers were due out shortly. GMMA told me to keep the position till the very end and about an hour after the numbers came out the market moved solidly to the pojection target so closed for a 69 point profit.

Total points since diary started

232 Points

Total points for the week.

69 Points

Hello,

Do you use Stops? If so, what were they for the above trades? If no Stops are used, or if you manually insert Stops along the path of your trades, no reply is nec.

Thanks.

Hi ,

Just in answer to your question.

I use stops and it is a standard 40 pips and once in profit by 20 pips then stop changed to zero as mentioned in my previous posts.

Just a friendly word..... This is not to discuss my trades my strategies or anything like that. I am not wanting to make a name for myself like some of the others on here , I am not wanting to sell a system , I am not wanting to run seminars , I am not wanting to advertise myself in anyway. I have over 14 years in the financial markets and make enough out of trading to keep me happy.

This is to keep my trading honest and a public record that I can not change for myself and some of my private clients (no I am not looking for any more, sorry)

This is not to belittle anyone , it is designed for my diary which is what I thought this was for.

Happy trading

Bear

PS if you have questions you can PM me

No problem - I won't post here again (you might want to let people know that posting here is not desirable). I saw the statement about clearing 20 pips but no statement regarding the 40 pip standard stop, until now.

Ayway, thanks and I won't hijack your thread.

Cable

The 1.5800 level that I flagged last week was attempted and fell short by a couple of points. The Fibonacci target mentioned last week has held at just over 1.5500. This tight trading range that we have been in over the last week is simply building for another decent move. A move above 1.5800 would signal this as a false break and a move back into the channel and move below the 1.5500 level would signal a quick move down to 1.5200.

Euro

The retrace back to the 1.3800 level that was flagged last week seem to have come through and drove the price down even further. I have been looking for a target of 1.3300 for a while now, but looking at the chart pattern over the last week, it appears that the appetite for being short the Euro is beginning to wane. It is over extended on the short side at the moment and would be tightening stops as it appears that there is some accumulation going on with the currency.

Loonie

The previous resistance is still coming into place and even though we have the Loonie back towards the 1.0500 level it is still in the triangulation pattern. A move below 1.0450 would be needed to cancel this pattern and assume that we are going back to the bottom of the channel at 1.0200 and into the trading range.

Yen

The trendline mention last week appears to have become support on the Yen. The break above the 91.00 mentioned last week is still critical for this currency to go long. Along with the present triangulation pattern that we have we also have a flag pattern that has come into play. The target out of this also gives you a target at 96.00 on the Yen.

Aussie

The recent strength in the Aussie Dollar has broken the triangulation pattern for the downside and it appears the currency has moved back into the range. The first 2 targets on the triangulation where met but then struggled to make it to the third at 0.8450. We still have a series of lower lows over the last 6 months so would have to get above 0.9000 convincingly before I would have to change my short bias on the currency.

Dollar Index

I have been looking for a target on the Dollar Index for the last couple of weeks of above 83.00. Unless we see a strong close above 81.00 in the coming days then I would have to say that we would expect a movement back to 78.50. The days ranges in the index are indicating that professionals are closing out there longs on the US Dollar and the RSI divergence that is going on is added weight to that argument. Watch closely as the inverse relationship between the Dollar Index and the US and thus global stock markets have been very well correlated over the last couple of years.

Cable

The move mentioned last week as a set up for short move at 1.5800 was reached and then broke down by more than 400 points in less than 3 days. We now have an acceleration to the downside with a target of 1.5200 short term and a possible move over the coming weeks of 1.4800. The fact that what was support has become resistance and the spacing involved in the pattern over the last week indicates that this move is still in play and is not showing any signs of slowing down.
Euro
The accumulation that I flagged last week in the currency still appears to be going on. The present pattern that we have seen over the last week is one of exhaustion and the failure to reach down to the 1.3300 level during the week is another indication that this is oversold in the short term. With the performance and movements of Cable over the last week we could be seeing a switching out of being short the Euro into Cable. I would be cautious about being short at the moment.
Loonie
We have had a move below the 1.0450 level that I stated last week down to the next Fibonacci level. The days trading ranges are one of a trend that is struggling to go lower.
Yen
The break in the flag pattern that we talked about last week has come into play. We could see a small retracement early in the week down to 90.80 before resuming the uptrend but still see a target of about 96.00 over the coming couple of months
Aussie
Based on the chart patterns over the last week and price action it would appear that the Aussie Dollar is about to break the top of the range of the channel. A move above 90.40 would signal a break in the channel and consolidation pattern and a move towards the 93.00. Something to watch pretty closely over the next week or so.
Dollar Index
I was looking for a strong close above the 81.00 level in the Dollar index before I would change my view that the US dollar is over extended. The divergence has become more obvious in the last week and the strong reversal against both the trendline and Fibonacci target add further weight that we should be looking for lower prices out of the dollar index in the coming weeks.