Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#16,261
Feb 11, 2010 4:26pm Feb 11, 2010 4:26pm

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

[quote=Patience;3456986]If risk aversion stays away, I'm gonna go with more upside. Daily chart isn't looking very bearish to me at the moment although we have done just over 300 pips this week. Are you still in your long term short trades?

/[quote]

I agree with you, there is no point to short this pair right now, buying dip is better, or just short side scalping at R points, IMO E/U is a better choice if someone like to buy USD, the difference is obvious -in E/U the crowd are net short in A/U they are net long, so we see impulsive wave down in E/U and impulsive wave up in A/U

#16,262
Feb 11, 2010 4:29pm Feb 11, 2010 4:29pm

Daytrader74
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts

Quoting amyc

Disliked

Yeah I did and based on the position of the S&P and euro I think there is still a chance that it will fall tonight but if not then 90 is where we will be next week. Also I don't believe that last Friday was a short term bottom, short term bottom pattern don't look like that. They look like the one below from December where the green lows cap the move down for the week and then the next week opens above the weekly pp.

But who knows if i'm wrong its not the end of the world.

Ignored

OK thanks...I see a down move today but first maybe 0.8960

#16,263
Feb 11, 2010 4:42pm Feb 11, 2010 4:42pm

amyc
Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,686 Posts

Quoting Daytrader74

Disliked

OK thanks...I see a down move today but first maybe 0.8960

Ignored

I see the same, the S&P bouncing off 1080 in the last hour is bearish to me and could provide a good run tonight.

#16,264
Feb 11, 2010 4:44pm Feb 11, 2010 4:44pm

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Quoting Squarepants

Disliked

I reckon 6500 is possible and 7500 is almost a certainty at some stage. Things look good for us on the surface; but we have massive private debt, bogus employment numbers, a one-trick-pony economy, and to top it all off we have a Labor government in power

It still very much looks like AUD is in the midst of a cyclical upswing inside a more major downward trajectory that will dominate over the next few months.

If the USA raise their cash rate, which may only be a few months off, then it could trigger USD to shoot up even more quickly....

Ignored

Mmmmmm, sounds a lot like the USA - lol.

Who knows when the US will raise their cash rate. Bernanke reiterated yesterday in his prepared speech that rates would remain low for an extended period. I've read that "extended period" means two quarters. I think once these words are dropped then the AUD can take a slide unless data surprising to the downside starts to appear for Oz and interest rate expectations are lowered or risk aversion hits the market.

How do you know the job numbers are bogus anyway? My brother works in some department store warehouse in QLD and gets paid what I consider to be an awful lot of money for the type of job he does. I had to ask him to repeat what he earned because I thought I was hearing things

In the meantime, let's make hay while the sun shines.

Nothing worth having is easy.

#16,265
Feb 11, 2010 4:51pm Feb 11, 2010 4:51pm

Daytrader74
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts

The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
The downside prevails.

Key levels
0.905
0.9015
0.8955
0.8905 (last)
0.8835
0.88
0.8775

Attached Image

#16,266
Feb 11, 2010 5:12pm Feb 11, 2010 5:12pm

kimd
| Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 204 Posts

what timeframe is that DT? My daily still shows some big bullish candles.

On the hourly, I see a possibility of a drop to the pivot line, but then I see 90 + on the daily.

#16,267
Feb 11, 2010 5:34pm Feb 11, 2010 5:34pm

Daytrader74
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts

Quoting kimd

Disliked

what timeframe is that DT? My daily still shows some big bullish candles.

On the hourly, I see a possibility of a drop to the pivot line, but then I see 90 + on the daily.

Ignored

Hourly...I see upside to about 0.8930 -0.8960 area then dump

#16,268
Feb 11, 2010 5:47pm Feb 11, 2010 5:47pm

tradoholic
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2009 | 1,006 Posts

The relationship between the Dow and the currencies should be taken into consideration. Higher the Dow and the S&P, higher is risk appetite and hence higher AUD, Gold and other Commodities. The reverse works well as well. The DOW as I mentioned before, is sitting at a 2 week high of 10152, it had a shooting star hike to 10169, but dropped as quickly. In my opinion it should drop today as well as in the NY session tonight ( my time). I expect it to fall further next week. So decisions about currency pairs can be taken based on the DOW.

Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.

#16,269
Feb 11, 2010 7:26pm Feb 11, 2010 7:26pm

Daytrader74
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts

The fundamental changes to the AUD outlook has resulted in analysts changing their recommendations from "selling AUD/USD rallies" to "buying AUD dips". The expectations of a RBA rate hike in March have soared from around 20% before the Aus job number to close to 50% following the release.

#16,270
Feb 11, 2010 7:42pm Feb 11, 2010 7:42pm

latropsudoxe
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 314 Posts

Quoting Daytrader74

Disliked

What is you TP and SL ?

Ignored

my s/l is at .8925, im looking at 0.8700; tp's at .8776, .8740 and one's open.

late reply; signed off before seeing it

#16,271
Feb 11, 2010 7:44pm Feb 11, 2010 7:44pm

latropsudoxe
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 314 Posts

bounce off the 38.2% fib, topped at .8920 and seems to be pulling back...hopefully turning around actually lol

#16,272
Feb 11, 2010 7:44pm Feb 11, 2010 7:44pm

Daytrader74
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts

Quoting latropsudoxe

Disliked

my s/l is at .8925, im looking at 0.8700; tp's at .8776, .8740 and one's open.

late reply; signed off before seeing it

Ignored

Better late than never, thanks!

#16,273
Feb 11, 2010 7:48pm Feb 11, 2010 7:48pm

amyc
Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,686 Posts

Quoting latropsudoxe

Disliked

bounce off the 38.2% fib, topped at .8920 and seems to be pulling back...hopefully turning around actually lol

Ignored

Good levels of selling after hours in the S&P500 as well, lets hope it continues.

#16,274
Feb 11, 2010 7:59pm Feb 11, 2010 7:59pm

latropsudoxe
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 314 Posts

while everyones sitting around and looking at their charts, here's an amazing..absolutely genius video. if you're interested in economics, check it out.

Inserted Video

#16,275
Feb 11, 2010 9:04pm Feb 11, 2010 9:04pm

sinner-
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts

88856 line in the sand. Bulls need to show they have the juice to keep running here or we will need to test a lower support.

Market has been moving in an exciting 13 pip range for the last 2 hours or so

A few snippets from Sean Lee at forexlive to pass the time:

As expected, fairly heavy stops reported above .8950 in the AUD/USD. Long stops below .8830 but bids between .8760 and .8810.

The 20-day MA comes in today at .8914 (at least according to my Reuters charts) and this technical level has traditionally been one to watch for AUD/USD traders. Above there we have the .8930 level which proved to be excellent resistance for 3 consecutive days last week. A clean break above there might well unleash the next barrage of AUD/USD buying. The hourly chart looks quite bullish so a break higher is favoured in the next few hours and only a break back below .8840 will alleviate the upside pressure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)