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AUD/USD

  • #16,241
  • Feb 11, 2010 7:50am Feb 11, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Clouds
and what about the drop from .98 to .60 was everyone long?
I didn't use to read it back then. I'm not sure whether it was an option on the FXCM trading platform or whether they produced it twice a day back then. I've been reading it fairly regularly since about May 2009. When I'd assess my charts and if I was getting conflicting signals, I'd check to see how everyone else was placed. It's always secondary to my charts.

But they were probably long when the KABOOM happened. I know I was
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #16,242
  • Feb 11, 2010 7:54am Feb 11, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Patience
I didn't use to read it back then. I'm not sure whether it was an option on the FXCM trading platform or whether they produced it twice a day back then. I've been reading it fairly regularly since about May 2009. When I'd assess my charts and if I was getting conflicting signals, I'd check to see how everyone else was placed. It's always secondary to my charts.

But they were probably long when the KABOOM happened. I know I was
a lesson learned, by most of us there. i still see .64 again, this time maybe it's a bit more obvious, hence why traders are short this time
  • #16,243
  • Feb 11, 2010 8:29am Feb 11, 2010 8:29am
Sorry I didn't have time to post my chart earlier.

Took one off the table waiting for one to close at 8900

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  • #16,244
  • Feb 11, 2010 10:56am Feb 11, 2010 10:56am
Quoting Clouds
a lesson learned, by most of us there. i still see .64 again, this time maybe it's a bit more obvious, hence why traders are short this time
What's your timeline on this 0.64 level? Are you expecting the GFC No. 2 very soon? Do you think the US fundamentals/interest rates warrant a 0.64 AUD/USD exchange rate? I was thinking that 0.78 might be feasible this year if risk aversion was to take hold but Australia has shown that it is one of the most stable economies out there. Do they have banks going down every week? Is their unemployment rate going up? Are their interest rates going down? Are they going to run out of commodities?

Nice one Kimd - going against the majority pays once again!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #16,245
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:07am Feb 11, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Patience
What's your timeline on this 0.64 level?...
Patience
How is ur trading?
Interested to know ur view with this pair if u could?
Cloud what ur time line for 0.64? why 0.64?
Thanks
  • #16,246
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:13am Feb 11, 2010 11:13am
Quoting egkid
Patience
Cloud what ur time line for 0.64? why 0.64?
Thanks

Interested in your reasoning behind this as well, fundamentally there is no way the auzzie will be at .64 anytime soon imo.

long at .70
  • #16,247
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:19am Feb 11, 2010 11:19am
Thanks Patience. It does take some stamina to stay focused and not be swayed. I am 70/30 fundamentalist so the trade makes sense to me.

Still about 25 pips to go on my EUR trade, all closed out on AUD (unless there is another big dip pf course) Very good day.
  • #16,248
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:30am Feb 11, 2010 11:30am
time to short Dow for 2 hours before the close....
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #16,249
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:32am Feb 11, 2010 11:32am
Quoting kimd
Thanks Patience. It does take some stamina to stay focused and not be swayed. I am 70/30 fundamentalist so the trade makes sense to me.

Still about 25 pips to go on my EUR trade, all closed out on AUD (unless there is another big dip pf course) Very good day.
Well done Kim, Nice to see PIPS being made...
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #16,250
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:56am Feb 11, 2010 11:56am
I will add sell here 0.8910
  • #16,251
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:01pm Feb 11, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting egkid
I will add sell here 0.8910
Keep an eye on the DOW, if it crosses 1160, then shorts will be dangerous for the AUD. I am short on DOW from 1152, which is a major Resistance and 2 weeks high. Will add more to my AUD short if it comes down, but will exit all shorts if Dow crosses 1160.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #16,252
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:14pm Feb 11, 2010 12:14pm
uptrend in 4h and h is intact with no surprise,
I showed a chart here with the levels that usually make a pause or a small trend change in aussie to play limited short side,
they are one touch trade, each will make 10-25 pips besides we are still in retracement zone .having said that the fall from .9320 hasnt finished yet ,a rise above 61% is needed to make that conclusion
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  • #16,253
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:33pm Feb 11, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting Patience
What's your timeline on this 0.64 level? Are you expecting the GFC No. 2 very soon? Do you think the US fundamentals/interest rates warrant a 0.64 AUD/USD exchange rate? I was thinking that 0.78 might be feasible this year if risk aversion was to take hold but Australia has shown that it is one of the most stable economies out there. Do they have banks going down every week? Is their unemployment rate going up? Are their interest rates going down? Are they going to run out of commodities?

Nice one Kimd - going against the majority pays once again!...
I reckon 6500 is possible and 7500 is almost a certainty at some stage. Things look good for us on the surface; but we have massive private debt, bogus employment numbers, a one-trick-pony economy, and to top it all off we have a Labor government in power

It still very much looks like AUD is in the midst of a cyclical upswing inside a more major downward trajectory that will dominate over the next few months.

If the USA raise their cash rate, which may only be a few months off, then it could trigger USD to shoot up even more quickly.
  • #16,254
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:42pm Feb 11, 2010 12:42pm
A/U looks like a broadening pattern right angle-descending, I did some literature review to see what is next , according to Thomas Bulkowski this formation has a probability of 59% upward breakout and according to Robert Prechter this might be an broadening top formation

for Gold , as I said before I see a falling wedge, and according to T.B this one has a 68% probability of upward breakout
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  • #16,255
  • Feb 11, 2010 1:30pm Feb 11, 2010 1:30pm
0.8960 next...
  • #16,256
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:08pm Feb 11, 2010 2:08pm
Unless it can fall around 150 pips or so in the next 24 hours then looks like we will be at 9000 by Monday
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  • #16,257
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:11pm Feb 11, 2010 2:11pm
Didn't you call a top yesterday @0.8907 ?
  • #16,258
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:15pm Feb 11, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting egkid
Patience
How is ur trading?
Interested to know ur view with this pair if u could?
Cloud what ur time line for 0.64? why 0.64?
Thanks
Hey Eg - apologies for the delayed reply but after I posted I had to like cook dinner and do all that boring stuff so have only seen your post.

I've got the same fib as Shahab. We're currently between 38.2 and 50% fibs. I did see a case for long AUD on Tuesday - reasons in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=151 but Wednesday's PA was a little disconcerting and before I went out for the evening PA was at 0.8720 so I left it at that. Then I saw what had happened overnight this morning so unfortunately I didn't catch the ride.

If risk aversion stays away, I'm gonna go with more upside. Daily chart isn't looking very bearish to me at the moment although we have done just over 300 pips this week. Are you still in your long term short trades?

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #16,259
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:23pm Feb 11, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting amyc
Unless it can fall around 150 pips or so in the next 24 hours then looks like we will be at 9000 by Monday
Didn't you call a top yesterday @0.8907 ?
  • #16,260
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:23pm Feb 11, 2010 2:23pm
Yeah I did and based on the position of the S&P and euro I think there is still a chance that it will fall tonight but if not then 90 is where we will be next week. Also I don't believe that last Friday was a short term bottom, short term bottom pattern don't look like that. They look like the one below from December where the green lows cap the move down for the week and then the next week opens above the weekly pp.

But who knows if i'm wrong its not the end of the world.
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