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  • #13,721
  • Feb 7, 2010 11:55am Feb 7, 2010 11:55am
Quoting Guerrillawar
High probability set-up is an extremely elusive thing. If one doesn't know how to trade all of their trades will be low probability. All of these type of set-ups discussed here in the thread have acceptable probability.

Probability does not increase because your hitting the 61.8% fib rather than the 50% fib. Or you are hitting R1 that lines up with a horizontal S&R level and a trend line. It doesn't increase because you are using a H2 chart instead of a H1. That is all bs that is disseminated by non professionals. [b]The market moves because...
I agree, the market does move because of order flow and daily conditions, but order flow is more often situated in those highs/lows/fibs/pivots etc. and this order flow is the thing that create them! So I wouldn't say, that placing order in those places will "only minimally" improve my chances. I would say considerably. Of course we have to see the big picture + price action near that levels to have an even higher probability trade.
  • #13,722
  • Feb 7, 2010 12:39pm Feb 7, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting cammomile
It is easy, once you know how and have a plan. This is what this thread teaches us.

I repeat: nobody can tell you "oh yeah surely buy at this level". If they do (like in some threads here) they usually dont have a clue.

Have a plan of what are you going to do once you see the chart developing.

That's true.
The plan is of most importance.
Patience and waiting. But once set up which is according to the plan is present no hesitation.
90% of my trading session is just waiting , sitting, drinking coffee and watching for S/Rs
Then BUM, set up, enter trade, few minutes in trade and then back to my pillow
  • #13,723
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:47pm Feb 7, 2010 7:47pm
OK. May be it is easy for you. It has never be easy for me, because the plan itself is not that easy, many 50-50 situations.

Quoting cammomile
It is easy, once you know how and have a plan. This is what this thread teaches us.

I repeat: nobody can tell you "oh yeah surely buy at this level". If they do (like in some threads here) they usually dont have a clue.

Have a plan of what are you going to do once you see the chart developing.
  • #13,724
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:07am Feb 8, 2010 7:07am
Just an abbreviated version of price action today snapped earlier on - hopefully this will help out - bottom line - mind your swing points and relative positioning of these highs and lows, as well as look out for that price symmetry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #13,725
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:16am Feb 8, 2010 7:16am
Nice post, Steve! Great to see you start teaching Trendline! Excellent! kk007

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Just an abbreviated version of price action today snapped earlier on - hopefully this will help out - bottom line - mind your swing points and relative positioning of these highs and lows, as well as look out for that price symmetry.
  • #13,726
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:34am Feb 8, 2010 7:34am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Support and resistance trading was alive and well last week.
Does anyone care to comment about the daily pin bars that formed on the daily charts of several key markets? Do you believe them to be significant or just a rush to exit dollar longs and risk shorts at the end of the week?
There's one thing you can count on and that's the undeniable history of the effect of support and resistance. The psychology of the market, be it an exit, risk, or new strategy, is not respectful of our trades to foreshadow any specific trend. As traders we must never perceive a trend, rather plan our trade based on the breakout of support and/or resistance. Let history teach us to be prudent for we can see the pitfalls in the story of past charts.
  • #13,727
  • Feb 8, 2010 11:30am Feb 8, 2010 11:30am
Quoting kk007
OK. May be it is easy for you. It has never be easy for me, because the plan itself is not that easy, many 50-50 situations.
You said you trade high probability set ups? They can never look 50-50, they won't be "high probability" otherwise. Just trade what stares right at you. If it looks 50-50 - forget it. What "talks" to you on that Gold chart - pin bar very close to "freshly" broken resistance, bearish trendline? Does it really scream at you or just mumbles (may be yes/no, 50-50, etc)?
  • #13,728
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:53pm Feb 8, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting cammomile
You said you trade high probability set ups? They can never look 50-50, they won't be "high probability" otherwise. Just trade what stares right at you. If it looks 50-50 - forget it. What "talks" to you on that Gold chart - pin bar very close to "freshly" broken resistance, bearish trendline? Does it really scream at you or just mumbles (may be yes/no, 50-50, etc)?
Oh... my 50-50 means whether it is a high-prob setup or it is not a high-prob setup, not whether it is going to win or going to lose!
  • #13,729
  • Feb 9, 2010 4:04pm Feb 9, 2010 4:04pm
The EUR/USD 4H chart:

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/5915/eurousd.jpg

Is it too obvious? Would you consider this a low-risk high-reward trade? The arguments to take the trade at around 1,3850 level:

1. 1,3852 is a previous low and should act as resistance
2. The upper band of the channel
3. The 60 SMA as a resistance
4. The 61,8% Fibonnaci from the last drop

Does anyone else watch this setup? Any comment would be great
  • #13,730
  • Feb 9, 2010 4:57pm Feb 9, 2010 4:57pm
How can it be too obvious? Well I don't hold much truck with ma's but apart from that everybody and his brother must be waiting to short from there. There was some discussion I think on the J16 thread.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed and how we trade these set ups is what matters and where will the short go to? We might be stuck in a range?
Gone to a better place
  • #13,731
  • Feb 9, 2010 10:22pm Feb 9, 2010 10:22pm
eu chart looks like a long here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-020910-3.gif Size: 22 KB
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #13,732
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:28am Feb 10, 2010 5:28am
Is the bottom of bucket formation in play on GU. If yes then the circled area should be target if someone is short from 1.57500.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bottom of bucket gu.jpg Size: 264 KB
Anything is possible; everything is negotiable
  • #13,733
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:39am Feb 10, 2010 5:39am
Quoting EurekaForex
Is the bottom of bucket formation in play on GU. If yes then the circled area should be target if someone is short from 1.57500.
As far as I understand, it is a bucket bottom level. Price should rebound up at that level unless the downward momentum is very strong.
  • #13,734
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:32pm Feb 11, 2010 3:32pm
I like a short here on aussie at around 0.895 area
50% fib also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,735
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:48am Feb 15, 2010 7:48am
looking for some support around 1.0415 ... 62% retracement around that level aswell.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #13,736
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:16am Feb 15, 2010 8:16am
This is a really interesting thread. Many excellent setups. Impressed with this guys, keep it up.
  • #13,737
  • Edited 3:46pm Feb 15, 2010 9:27am | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting booker66
looking for some support around 1.0415 ... 62% retracement around that level aswell.
Very intresting area indeed, wide as well: 1.0450-1.0400. Spike base @1.0425(m15).

Here's UJ chart with bucket pattern on H1, also has a lot of history:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-02-15_1658.png Size: 52 KB
  • #13,738
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:56am Feb 15, 2010 10:56am
good call gambis ... 90.77 area looks promising with a 76% retracement at 90.62 0n the daily . nice one ...
  • #13,739
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:09am Feb 15, 2010 11:09am
Quoting booker66
looking for some support around 1.0415 ... 62% retracement around that level aswell.

Attachment
took a short after pulling back to 1.0509... hoping to ride it down to around the above level .. locked in a risk free trade so will see ?
  • #13,740
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:51am Feb 16, 2010 7:51am
Hi

I need your opinion on this coming setup on GBP/CAD. Its looks like a good long setup @1.62400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad daily.gif Size: 32 KB
Anything is possible; everything is negotiable
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