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AUD/USD

  • #16,141
  • Feb 10, 2010 10:30pm Feb 10, 2010 10:30pm
The next level of resistance for the AUD/USD is found at last week"s daily highs between 0.8915/30
  • #16,142
  • Feb 10, 2010 10:48pm Feb 10, 2010 10:48pm
Aussie dollar strategy So I've been selling aussie/$ into this rally for a while now at .87ish, .875. and now .885 I was definitely expecting it to bounce up to this level, but I was expecting this to occur sometime tomorrow after the EU Conference!

Like a lot of retail people, my stop loss is a little past bout the break of the trend line down & top of a potential 4th Elliot wave (out of a 5 wave down) SL (.893). However, with the current pre-conference level so close to my stop loss, I'm wondering if I should just cut it now, then re-enter later after Europe has made its proclamations of invincibility.....?


I'm curious how others have positioned themselves and what strategy?

I'm a little bit concerned what may occur is a sudden "spike" in risk (E/$ up to 1.385 Aussie/$ up to .895/.9) at any announcement due to High Frequency Trade systems interpreting the release/quanting the news and firing off longs in the milliseconds following ( since we all know there's a good chance they will "word" things to help the Eurozone regardless of reality).

My faith in my trading plan is waning now http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/images/smilies/frown.gif
  • #16,143
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:23pm Feb 10, 2010 11:23pm
I know how you feel. I am uncertain as to what to expect also in the short term. Midterm aud is going down. I figuered these levels would be tested after the greece news however will it go even higher or will it go down as people "sell the news". I have no clue.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #16,144
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:33pm Feb 10, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Aussie dollar strategy...
i am out of position since last night profit ( short ).. better wait and see . because of today EU meeting to rescue GREECE..maybe propelled significant movement either side up or down..
  • #16,145
  • Edited Feb 11, 2010 12:14am Feb 10, 2010 11:48pm | Edited Feb 11, 2010 12:14am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...ky-assets.html

Short time
triggered 0.8880 sl . 0.8950 . tp. open , ts 90
Tiny Polar Bear from Poland
  • #16,146
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:51pm Feb 10, 2010 11:51pm
took a nice short for a few pips....2 sessions 2 go and look at the daily
Annoying Precision
  • #16,147
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:56pm Feb 10, 2010 11:56pm
The news could not have been better today for the AUD, booming jobs data, subdued Chinese inflation and optimism building towards a solution to the Greek dilemma all conspired to push Asian bourses and commodities higher. The AUD/USD trades at the top of a 0.8750/0.8896 range going into the European open, with the technical outlook favouring a stronger corrective move towards 0.9000. Offshore investors are likely to be impressed by the local data and renewed optimism on interest rate differentials, with a 49% chance of a 25pt hike in March priced in the futures. The main danger for the AUD is disappointment on the Greek issue, which is possible given the divergent opinions in Europe. The next resistance comes in at 0.8920/25, which was a daily range high in early February.
  • #16,148
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:58pm Feb 10, 2010 11:58pm
The figure seems a likely form of resistance, but it not quite make it
  • #16,149
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:01am Feb 11, 2010 12:01am
i was going to scale in at .8890 but didn't...i usually never trade while browsing forums...but i guess i got scared and my confidence in my trade setup/plan weakened.

i'm still holding shorts from 0.8855
  • #16,150
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:06am Feb 11, 2010 12:06am
Quoting latropsudoxe
i was going to scale in at .8890 but didn't...i usually never trade while browsing forums...but i guess i got scared and my confidence in my trade setup/plan weakened.

i'm still holding shorts from 0.8855
What is you TP and SL ?
  • #16,151
  • Edited 12:52am Feb 11, 2010 12:41am | Edited 12:52am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Wouldn't like to brag ...But the chart said it all, we are not coming back before we have touched 89500 or even 91.
Posted yesterday. Don't think many of you here took me seriously since I am not a frequent Aus trader.


Be careful with shorts or have a wide stops of upto 100 pips if you place trade @ 89500...


I am holding my long from 87500. Sorry didn't post this trade even on my thread since I was busy.

EDIT: we might retrace here for a while. However, I do not see us past 88 yet.


ta
ams




Quoting ams
Folks,

This is what I see.

I see us climbing back to 888xx, 895xxx level. Do not think it's advisable to load any shorts yet.


ta
ams
  • #16,152
  • Feb 11, 2010 12:52am Feb 11, 2010 12:52am
0.91? Heh, okay whatever. Let's see where it is if the U.S. equities fall 2% Thursday; this is likely if EU waffles on the Greek issue.
  • #16,153
  • Edited 2:46am Feb 11, 2010 1:07am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting Hell7
So far, so good. Next hurdle, the green trend line.
Price broke above and reached the median line of the blue fork, where we should see some profit taking.

Should price manage to close above, we go to the upper line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20100211audd.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #16,154
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:25am Feb 11, 2010 2:25am
Be a good AUD, and go down now
  • #16,155
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:27am Feb 11, 2010 2:27am
Damn I missed out on filling out my third short lot @0.8915 :-(
  • #16,156
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:41am Feb 11, 2010 2:41am
Asia/Europe markets up, Fut's point higher, looks like a bad day shaping up for USD. Looking to buy AUD dips, esp with markets repricing RBA hike after this STRONG jobs data. May also chase longs above 0.8910.
  • #16,157
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:47am Feb 11, 2010 2:47am
As long as EURUSD stays above 137329 then I don't think downside will be so easy.

It will take a bad event, which means shorts will probably be shaken right out before any move.
  • #16,158
  • Feb 11, 2010 2:53am Feb 11, 2010 2:53am
Quoting sinner-
As long as EURUSD stays above 137329 then I don't think downside will be so easy.

It will take a bad event, which means shorts will probably be shaken right out before any move.
yeah.. but.. i dream of shorts, wait up and short, im a short addict!

No. no, my target isn't much, 3729 is far away
  • #16,159
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:06am Feb 11, 2010 3:06am
I screwed up my charts before, I bet this is the top at 8907
Attached Image
  • #16,160
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:08am Feb 11, 2010 3:08am
Quoting Daytrader74
The news could not have been better today for the AUD, booming jobs data, subdued Chinese inflation and optimism building towards a solution to the Greek dilemma all conspired to push Asian bourses and commodities higher. The AUD/USD trades at the top of a 0.8750/0.8896 range going into the European open, with the technical outlook favouring a stronger corrective move towards 0.9000. Offshore investors are likely to be impressed by the local data and renewed optimism on interest rate differentials, with a 49% chance of a 25pt hike in March priced...
Agree...
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