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AUD/USD

  • #16,101
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:18pm Feb 10, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting Subdude
Something's not right here: a huge drop in unemployment rate, tons of new jobs... sounds like someone is working hard on fudging the numbers in Australia.

why? australia has had good numbers consistently. they may have a bad figure here or there, but for the most part they were the least affected by the crisis which started in 08. australia is strong, just riskier because its smaller.
  • #16,102
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:20pm Feb 10, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting pipsbull
There was a fellow trader back then, who tought not to add to a losing position. I'll cite him:"He should accumulate his line on the way up. Let him buy one-fifth of his full line. If that does not show him a profit he must not increase his holdings because he has obviously begun wrong; he is wrong temporarily and there is no profit in being wrong at any time." Larry Livingston.
Just for consideration...
I agree with that, never add to a losing position, add heavily when the market is moving with you.
  • #16,103
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:24pm Feb 10, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting amyc
I agree with that, never add to a losing position, add heavily when the market is moving with you.
So can someone explain to me why all of a sudden adding more shorts to my position is a bad idea ? everyone is talking about how its going to drop like a stone and very strong resistance at 0.8911 - 0.8920 so why would it be a losing trade ? curious to know what your thoughts are , however I'd like you to know that I take my trades on my own research and analysis and I believe in my trades.
  • #16,104
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:26pm Feb 10, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting jdutch
why? australia has had good numbers consistently. they may have a bad figure here or there, but for the most part they were the least affected by the crisis which started in 08. australia is strong, just riskier because its smaller.
Well, primarily because these numbers come on the heels of three rate hikes. It seems everyone sees it as a mythical country with no worries, unlimited resources and growth prospects - a paradise of sorts. But I see it a bit different; Australia's internal consumption rate is pretty low, manifested in its utter dependence on China's growth.

Imagine for a moment what a hint of slowing China would mean for Australia... you can argue all you want, but even the government now recognizes the country is in a bubble.
  • #16,105
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:27pm Feb 10, 2010 8:27pm
If we get good news for greece tomorrow then we may see further usd losses. I dont think it's such a sure thing we will drop like a rock.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #16,106
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:27pm Feb 10, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting Daytrader74
So can someone explain to me why all of a sudden adding more shorts to my position is a bad idea ? everyone is talking about how its going to drop like a stone and very strong resistance at 0.8911 - 0.8920 so why would it be a losing trade ? curious to know what your thoughts are , however I'd like you to know that I take my traded on my own research and analysis and I believe in my trades.
Trade your own plan
  • #16,107
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:29pm Feb 10, 2010 8:29pm
why just dont accept the daily trend is changed and trade accordingly?(the macd just truned bullish- more room to go up)
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  • #16,108
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:30pm Feb 10, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting amyc
I agree with that, never add to a losing position, add heavily when the market is moving with you.
Yeap, learnt it in a hard way couple years ago
BTW, such a wooping numbers from China - 1390B in loans... what's that? Government national advice to public to buy more gold and silver
  • #16,109
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:33pm Feb 10, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting Daytrader74
So can someone explain to me why all of a sudden adding more shorts to my position is a bad idea ? everyone is talking about how its going to drop like a stone and very strong resistance at 0.8911 - 0.8920 so why would it be a losing trade ? curious to know what your thoughts are , however I'd like you to know that I take my trades on my own research and analysis and I believe in my trades.
That's great that you are confident, especially if you can take drawdowns. Why we are saying that it is not a great idea,well..., just merely from experience. Plus, whoever said .8911 is strong resistance has his personal opinion and it is obvious that nothing is 100% for sure.
  • #16,110
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:41pm Feb 10, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting amyc
Trade your own plan
I always do thanks.
  • #16,111
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:41pm Feb 10, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting pipsbull
Yeap, learnt it in a hard way couple years ago
with all due respect, it's nonsence. Daytrader's logic is correct. Once you plan your trade you have considered all options and start building your position. You can hardly decide bottom or top up to a pip, so there is nothing wrong in adding when going opposite. (not that I agree with the present daytraders' conviction about bearish direction).

Besides, averaging is valid trading techinque and if you have sufficient funds and precisely calculated limits, very effective one.
  • #16,112
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:46pm Feb 10, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting JanPoko
with all due respect, it's nonsence. Daytrader's logic is correct. Once you plan your trade you have considered all options and start building your position. You can hardly decide bottom or top up to a pip, so there is nothing wrong in adding when going opposite. (not that I agree with the present daytraders' conviction about bearish direction).

Besides, averaging is valid trading techinque and if you have sufficient funds and precisely calculated limits, very effective one.
If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging
  • #16,113
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:46pm Feb 10, 2010 8:46pm
commodities are toast.
usd/cad broke out of it's trend line
oil is toast
gold is toast
blah blah blah

aud will be luck to stay at .8890 for the next five minutes
cause nobodies paying that price
  • #16,114
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:48pm Feb 10, 2010 8:48pm
Agreed.

Betting 100% of your position is higher risk than scaling into it. NO one knows tops and bottoms. Assuming proper cash management this is a great way to take positions.

BR

Quoting JanPoko
with all due respect, it's nonsence. Daytrader's logic is correct. Once you plan your trade you have considered all options and start building your position. You can hardly decide bottom or top up to a pip, so there is nothing wrong in adding when going opposite. (not that I agree with the present daytraders' conviction about bearish direction).

Besides, averaging is valid trading techinque and if you have sufficient funds and precisely calculated limits, very effective one.
  • #16,115
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:49pm Feb 10, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
why just dont accept the daily trend is changed and trade accordingly?(the macd just truned bullish- more room to go up)
I agree mate. I was short y'day but TP at 8730.

Currently I am short from .8865 with TP at .8840 and then I'll look to add longs from that level.

Instead of shorting AUD against USD, I'd rather short it against EUR and GBP considering EUR and GBP has more upside than AUD.
  • #16,116
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:50pm Feb 10, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting JanPoko
with all due respect, it's nonsence. Daytrader's logic is correct. Once you plan your trade you have considered all options and start building your position. You can hardly decide bottom or top up to a pip, so there is nothing wrong in adding when going opposite. (not that I agree with the present daytraders' conviction about bearish direction).

Besides, averaging is valid trading techinque and if you have sufficient funds and precisely calculated limits, very effective one.
Possible, but there is wisdom in accumulation of one's line on the way up, not the other way. And that's how we learn: from experience. And if yours tells you to add to a losing position, then it is fine. But, obviously, there are a lot of newbies watching the recent posts and if he accept it as normal, it may finish dramatically. I am just pointing out the general accepted fact.
Good Luck
  • #16,117
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:50pm Feb 10, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging
jolly good, but not quite relevant, my dear.

Building position or averaging is not exactly like struggling in a hole (but I admit I didn't experienced the later yet)
  • #16,118
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:55pm Feb 10, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting gimmie
very nice, finaly some gud news for aussie.. i put limit order on both sides, got out with 80pips in minutes lol. God i love trading news

how is tat possible? ur brokers allows limit order to be fill in even when price spike in a split second?

nice pips anyway
trade safe
  • #16,119
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:55pm Feb 10, 2010 8:55pm
can't discount the risk for the usd index to have a major pullback to 76
i'm not going be trading only smaller positions this week, or scalp
  • #16,120
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:56pm Feb 10, 2010 8:56pm
too true..

Quoting shahab8b
If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging
Annoying Precision
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