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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #54,601
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:59pm Feb 10, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting bartstop
Cory, thanks for the quick reply. I am new to this method. Now that I think about it, this would be a pretty risky trade. Thanks for pointing that out. If the pinbar was in the other direction, would you be looking to trade that or are you only looking for a pinbar at the top of a retracement?
Great question Bartstop. Personally to go against the trend I have a couple rules:

1. It would need to be a really beautiful pinbar. It would need to be a large bar in comparison to the other bars leading up to it, and would have to really stick out from the price action.

2. It would need to be in a strong area. In this case we have a PPZ (price pivot zone) at the round number of 1.5500, so that would be a positive.

3. I really like there to be strong divergence with either MACD or RSI, meaning the price makes a new lower low, but the oscillator is making higher lows.

Let me give you some advice Bartstop. Read this whole thread. Make this the focus of your forex study. You will always be tempted to check out the next new indicator, etc. But I can tell you from my experience you will learn so much more by carefully studying this thread and demo trading (please follow the instructions in post 1, they will save you time and money.) Especially focus on posts by James16, mbqb11 (Mike), Jarroo, Raczek, and other seniors).

I have had 2 consectutive profitable months for the first time ever in my trading experience because of things I learned here. It is a lot of material but it is definitely worth it.

This is a great thread and we have tons of great traders to learn from. Please feel free to ask any question related to price action trading, and you'll find that people are genuinely helpful here.

Good luck and good trading!

Cory
  • #54,602
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:10pm Feb 10, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Cbh123
Great question Bartstop....
Ditto on the reading thread advice, my eyes are hurting but this thread is a goldmine.
  • #54,603
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:41pm Feb 10, 2010 5:41pm
Actually, I joined J16 group a few days ago. I've been watching the videos but haven't really dug in to the forums to much. I really need to take some notes, things tend to stick in my head better if I have to write it down.

The more I think about it, the question I asked was really stupid. I've taken in a lot of information in the last couple of days. I don't think it has all taken hold yet.

Bartstop
  • #54,604
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:55pm Feb 10, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting bartstop
Actually, I joined J16 group a few days ago. I've been watching the videos but haven't really dug in to the forums to much. I really need to take some notes, things tend to stick in my head better if I have to write it down.

The more I think about it, the question I asked was really stupid. I've taken in a lot of information in the last couple of days. I don't think it has all taken hold yet.

Bartstop
No stupid questions sir, we have all been there. It just takes time for it to all start to sink in and then some more time to get it to work

Mike
  • #54,605
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:08pm Feb 10, 2010 6:08pm
As far as my FXPro feed goes back, which is to late 1992, GBPCAD is still hovering around all time lows. Could we see another pullback up in a few days, or perhaps a thrust downward to new lows?

Boy


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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #54,606
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:22pm Feb 10, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting joelcf
Not the biggest pin or the best location, but as long as you know where it is heading, you should be able to grab a few bucks with very little risk... I'd wait for a break of that ppz first though, and be aware of possible support around the 7850ish area.
Good call. Price stalled and reversed at that first PPZ, 78.65-ish, and reversed and has broken the TL to the upside and almost taken out the high of that pinbar.

- TTP -
  • #54,607
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:11pm Feb 10, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey CY

Not going to put words into Jarroo's mouth but actually technically speaking that bar is not a pin as it did not close within the prior bar. It could be considered by proxy pin, but again it has a very tiny nose and a poor close. On the 4hr you are going to see much better bars then this that make passing on this quite easy.

Best
Mike
Thanks for chipping in Mike,
On 2nd look, u were right abt the bar not closing within the prior bar and hence did not qualify as a true pb. But in my opinion, the nose is ok, definitely not "very tiny" as you put it unless we have differing graphical interpretation of the pinocchio nose. To me the protuding nose of the said pb is at least as long as the range of the prior 8 bars so it is ok I think.
But my point in the post to Jaroo is that why did he say it is VERY RISKY as a continuation trade. Even though it is not a true pb, it should not be consider risky to go short.

CY
  • #54,608
  • Edited 9:45pm Feb 10, 2010 7:25pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting ertorque
Hi Jaroo,

Could you elaborate on your comment abt the trade (if taken) as a continuation trade is VERY risky? I asssume when u say continuation you mean price to move lower (since we see that the main trend is downtrend over the longer period). If that is the case, wouldn't the setup be at least an A (going for short) since we have a good PB touching RN and bouncing off 50Fib.
Thanks.

CY
Quoting mbqb11
Hey CY

Not going to put words into Jarroo's mouth but actually technically speaking that bar is not a pin as it did not close within the prior bar. It could be considered by proxy pin, but again it has a very tiny nose and a poor close. On the 4hr you are going to see much better bars then this that make passing on this quite easy.

Best
Mike


You can put words in my mouth any time you want to, Mike. You can even throw a sock in there too if I get out of hand. lol

Mike is correct about the quality of that 4 hour PB . .size, shape, structure, etc. The only thing good about it is that it is off a Bold Round Number ( 90.00) in an apparent downtrend.

Lets remember what brought us to this 90.00 level on the 4 hour, the Weekly BEOB.

The ideal location for BEOBs are at a swing High, preferably at a confluenced retracement level. Since this Weekly BEOB is not at swing High its not the ideal, so it is more risky to trade. Also, this Weekly BEOB has not broken yet which technically it is not a confirmed BEOB.

So what we were doing is looking to jump the gun of this "soso" Weekly BEOB and look for a High quality bearish setup around the 90.00 on a the 4 hour chart, which in my book is risky.

The chart shows a much better, less risky BEOB (in blue) that is at a swing high at a retracement level with trend continuation.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,609
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:47pm Feb 10, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting ertorque
Even though it is not a true pb, it should not be consider risky to go short.

CY

I would like to hear more about why you think its not risky to go short. I'm not trying to pick on you, CY. I'm just trying to understand what you see.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,610
  • Edited 8:14pm Feb 10, 2010 7:52pm | Edited 8:14pm
In 2 trades right now.

AUD/USD Daily BUOB off a PPZ. Price is at a swing low and in sideways/uptrend. I moved my stop to right below the PPZ in the .8750 area. First trouble spot is .8915. I plan to move to BE there.

Silver (XAG) Daily Pin Bar off a PPZ. Price is also at a swing low after a very sharp move. I've been learning a lot from Jarroo's posts recently and attempting to incorporate his ideas into my style (thanks J ). I will tighten my stop to half my initial risk if it doesn't move by the close of this bar.

Anyone like to comment on these trades? I've been trying to focus on my J16 comfort zone recently and it has helped reduce stress/overtrading.

Thanks.

-- Danny
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  • #54,611
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:04pm Feb 10, 2010 8:04pm
I MISS YOU GUYS!

I have been poking my head in here a TINY bit, but just skimming to see if anyone has seen what I have been seeing...

caught this one, originally a H+S pattern, that started to break out when the daily BEOB formed, I took it on demo.
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,612
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:05pm Feb 10, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Chatzi my answers are below in bold

2. About risk per trade, I agree completely with the 1-3% risk of account, but do you guys that are live keep your whole account with the broker? I would feel more comfortable keeping say 25% of my account at the broker, but basing % risk on full amount.
Yes this is very very normal and what I do and many other people. As long as the rest of your account funds are available for transfer as needed this is a way to safeguard one self against the mother of all catastrophes...
Hey Mike,
Need your clarification (again)
Regarding keeping a certain amount of fund with broker do you mean that for example, if one has 10k to trade, he could deposit 2.5k (25%) with the broker and keep the 7.5k himself? And how and under what circumstances will this 7.5k be transfered as you said above? Also if we do that (depositing only 25% with the broker, wouldn't this accelerate margin calls since you have less free margin? Thanks.

CY
  • #54,613
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:15pm Feb 10, 2010 8:15pm
I didn't originally want to post this pending limit order on this forum, but I'm going to do it anyway. I placed this order a LONG time ago and have been waiting and waiting for price to get here.

breakout trendline + STRONG PPZ @ .8850 + 61.8% FIB + 50% FIB + 150 EMA... and I dunno... I guess trend?


EDIT: this is EURGBP DAILY CHART
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,614
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:20pm Feb 10, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting bluetrader
In 2 trades right now.

AUD/USD Daily BUOB off a PPZ. Price is at a swing low and in sideways/uptrend. I moved my stop to right below the PPZ in the .8750 area. First trouble spot is .8915. I plan to move to BE there.

Silver (XAU) Daily Pin Bar off a PPZ. Price is also at a swing low after a very sharp move. I've been learning a lot from Jarroo's posts recently and attempting to incorporate his ideas into my style (thanks J ). I will tighten my stop to half my initial risk if it doesn't move by the close of this bar.

Anyone like...

Looking good Danny. You got to love the break and big bar of the BUOB on the Aud/Usd. Nice.

The Silver PB is pretty small and structurely not the best. I do like the location . .PPZ, 61.8 Fib and BRN 15.00.

Nice job.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,615
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:34pm Feb 10, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I didn't originally want to post this pending limit order on this forum, but I'm going to do it anyway. I placed this order a LONG time ago and have been waiting and waiting for price to get here.

breakout trendline + STRONG PPZ @ .8850 + 61.8% FIB + 50% FIB + 150 EMA... and I dunno... I guess trend?


EDIT: this is EURGBP DAILY CHART

Hey Dan. Good to see you. Nice charts.

Yes that is what I would call a strong confluenced area on the Eur/Gbp at the .8850. Nice.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,616
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:42pm Feb 10, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting ertorque
Hey Mike,
Need your clarification (again)
Regarding keeping a certain amount of fund with broker do you mean that for example, if one has 10k to trade, he could deposit 2.5k (25%) with the broker and keep the 7.5k himself? And how and under what circumstances will this 7.5k be transfered as you said above? Also if we do that (depositing only 25% with the broker, wouldn't this accelerate margin calls since you have less free margin? Thanks.

CY
Hey CY

You are only going to get a margin call if you well don't have enough margin. The idea is to keep enough on hand to cover the maximum amount of open trades you might ever have with margin. At 1% risk per trade, this isn't much. 25% is low, but depending on what your broker leverage is ~40-50% is good usually. As for how to get the funds, well most brokers allow wire transfer which is how I transfer my funds and it is extremely fast. You should never be in a bind that you must transfer instantly, you should always have enough leeway and if you are like me and only ever open maybe max 4 positions at once(usually with some locked in profit) your actual real exposure to the market is very very low.

Best
Mike
  • #54,617
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:45pm Feb 10, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey Dan. Good to see you. Nice charts.

Yes that is what I would call a strong confluenced area on the Eur/Gbp at the .8850. Nice.
I set that limit order on jan. 25... *sigh*
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,618
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:48pm Feb 10, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I didn't originally want to post this pending limit order on this forum, but I'm going to do it anyway. I placed this order a LONG time ago and have been waiting and waiting for price to get here.

breakout trendline + STRONG PPZ @ .8850 + 61.8% FIB + 50% FIB + 150 EMA... and I dunno... I guess trend?


EDIT: this is EURGBP DAILY CHART
I am honoured to have "confluence" with you Dan. I marked the area to go short last week, placed the order today (a bit higher than the red "sell" line to hit downward channel line today). Unfortunately, my charts are not yet up to your standards!! Also caught the Silver pin too
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  • #54,619
  • Feb 10, 2010 9:06pm Feb 10, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting jarroo
I would like to hear more about why you think its not risky to go short. I'm not trying to pick on you, CY. I'm just trying to understand what you see.
Sure Jaroo, no problem.
After reading your post (the one u said u don't mind being fed socks from Mike :0)). I did not relate the 4H chart to the weekly. Now I am beginning to see your point (from a senior's that is).
I had thought that from the 4H alone, the setup is quite good since we agreed it bounced off RN and 50% Fib. The only maybe differing view we have is abt how good the pb is ( yes, it did not close within the prior bar making it a nono to the experienced traders here I understand).

Thank-you very much for the guidance!

CY
  • #54,620
  • Feb 10, 2010 9:31pm Feb 10, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting ertorque
Sure Jaroo, no problem.
After reading your post (the one u said u don't mind being fed socks from Mike :0)). I did not relate the 4H chart to the weekly. Now I am beginning to see your point (from a senior's that is).
I had thought that from the 4H alone, the setup is quite good since we agreed it bounced off RN and 50% Fib. The only maybe differing view we have is abt how good the pb is ( yes, it did not close within the prior bar making it a nono to the experienced traders here I understand).

Thank-you very much for the guidance!

CY

This BRN, 90.00 level, is a good area to watch, I'm sure Mike is eyeballing too. But this doesn't take away from the fact that we want some very sizeable PA to accompany it. Meaning even if that 4 hour PB closed within the previous bar, the size was not big enough to cause a trigger fenzy.

But as a touch trade entry it worked out nicely but these take more time to get good at. I still like to have many confirmations in my trading. And big PA at great locations is just one of them, albeit an important one.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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