Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

I still like the idea ab=cd at USDCHF, sell at current level (1,0700) SL=1.0800 tp at 1.0500 then switch to long

SOURCE ; EWI,
intraday update

larg institute reduced their long gold positions from 211,924 to 210,169 contracts, note that they are still extensively long
COT index (13 weeks) ,is 0 (bearish extreme),

being short below S truns R at 1075 is a wise trade for now with sl above that level,
for long term I'm bearish but cant stop thinking of a very remote scenario, a bullish wedge with a new high on the card!

Source: EWI
intraday update

descending scallop on dax & A/U and few others, sell them all

SOURCE: EWI

intraday update

We have a change of sentiment on AUD and EUR. Not a surprise really as I was also shorting both currencies today so it just confirms to me that I am a typical retail trader

SSI: Despite USDJPY’s Relatively Limited Volatility this Morning, Positioning Sees a Hearty Shift
Tuesday, 09 Feb 2010 18:05 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.30 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 22.5% lower than yesterday and 17.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.7% weaker than yesterday and 6.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.90 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.7% lower than yesterday and 0.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.6% weaker than yesterday and 4.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.03 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 29.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.6% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.92 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.76 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.1% lower than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 28.2% higher than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 5.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.14 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 22.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.5% lower than yesterday and 12.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.8% weaker than yesterday and 16.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.57 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.6% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.6% lower than yesterday and 32.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.0% weaker than yesterday and 15.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.34 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 18.1% lower than yesterday and 16.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 34.1% higher than yesterday and 19.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% stronger than yesterday and 5.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.75 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.4% lower than yesterday and 13.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 30.1% higher than yesterday and 28.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 7.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

thanx for the report,
so we were among the crowd today!! but you know that I'm still holding EURUSD Long based on my ab=cd pattern
+ I just went short cable at 1.5710 , this one is not included in the retailer !!

patience do you think we should switch to long in Aussie?

You know I said to you earlier today that I could see a case for long AUD before the German/Greece news came out. I haven't quite caught up on what the latest news is. I heard that Germany were backtracking slightly and I want to have another look at my charts. In the meantime, here is USDX 4 hour chart. You can see that we bounced from this area twice before. I'm not sure if we are we going to get third time lucky.



Okay, I've quickly checked one of my charts. We've had a 4 hour candle open and close above my 34 EMA. Haven't had this since 19 January. Also daily RSX has turned up, we've got classical bullish divergence and the bounce off 200 day MA and 23.6% fib not to mention the bullish engulfing daily candle. I won't be looking for shorts at this time.

Usually when they are short EUR and long GBP it usually translates into stronger EUR/GBP but that doesn't seem to be happening at the moment. Also same with AUD/NZD. Because they are short AUD and long NZD it usually translates to stronger AUD/NZD. I haven't checked that currency out as I don't trade it. Of course, nothing is guaranteed though!

Hi Patience,

Can you please explain what this indicator is and how to interpret it?

also do you mind attaching that indi here?

thanks
Puks

Hi Puks

See this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=83. I've been observing the indicator for about six months I think. Like anything, it needs screen time.

Slow morning I see. I was expecting to see it higher when I woke up. I think I'll just keep my eye on the USDX and buy any bounce from or around 200 MA on 1 hour chart. Not looking to buy, just sell at higher levels.

Thanks Patience.

I am short AUD for two reasons.

1. I am expecting (same way I was expecting Interest rates) disappointing employment numbers.
2. 8810 is a strong R so I am keeping my stop above that level.

Cheers

De nada.

Boring market aye. Seems to be waiting on Benny's testimony (just his prepared speech) in a couple of minutes and then there is meant to be an ECB conference call re Greece at 6.30 pm Frankfurt time. Trade well.

A/U bullish

Dailyfx's SSI

US Dollar Forecast to Rally Further against Euro, British Pound


Aggressive US Dollar and Japanese Yen rallies have been met with similarly aggressive crowd selling, giving strong contrarian signal to buy into USD and JPY strength. In fact, the number of traders long the British Pound against the Japanese Yen grew a substantial 56 percent while the crowd long the GBP/USD grew by a similar 43 percent from last week. Though persistent strength increases the likelihood of short-term pullbacks, the tide has clearly turned in the previously-downtrodden US Dollar’s favor and it is likely to continue higher into the coming months’ trade. Shorter-term, our SSI suggests that traders should buy declines in the US currency.

Please dont tell me Cable is due for another slump.

I am long from 1.5650

hi mate,

it's just their report, I personally think of usd weakness for the rest of the week

do you know anything about the unemployment news coming out in 1.5 hr? will be good or bad?
you got the rate right last time