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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #3,481
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:58am Feb 10, 2010 3:58am
Quoting Paulette
Germany bailing out Greece?

"Talk that Germany is looking to bailout Greece helped spur the Euro higher against other major currencies, bouncing off eight month lows. Having been hit hard over the past couple of weeks, a possible bailout has helped raise confidence in the 16 state currency. If approved, this will be the first rescue in the 11 year history of the single currency. The school of thought is that an announcement may be made on Thursday when leaders are scheduled to meet"
from what I heard, they will just offer loan guarantees. Not really bailing them out...
  • #3,482
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:54am Feb 10, 2010 4:54am
Morning folks!

Quick question if I may...

Say we are in a downtrend waiting for the retracement back to a point of confluence to enter short.

As the retracement begins to form we mark the boundaries.
Now, sometimes we get 2 lines instead of the usuall 1 (flag look-a-like) like in the example of the A/U (attached chart).

Do you guys wait till it breaks the outer boundaries to enter (with BPC) or do you trade the inner one aswell (with BPC)?

And if so how do you go about TP/SL when approaching the outer line?

Cheers

Pip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: A_U.png Size: 77 KB
  • #3,483
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:00am Feb 10, 2010 5:00am
Quoting Pipalicious
Morning folks!

Quick question if I may...

Say we are in a downtrend waiting for the retracement back to a point of confluence to enter short.

As the retracement begins to form we mark the boundaries.
Now, sometimes we get 2 lines instead of the usuall 1 (flag look-a-like) like in the example of the A/U (attached chart).

Do you guys wait till it breaks the outer boundaries to enter (with BPC) or do you trade the inner one aswell (with BPC)?

And if so how do you go about TP/SL when approaching the outer line?

Cheers

Pip
when you trade the break of the inner trend-line I would target the outer trendline for my first target and next the swing low and then the extension of the swing.
It normally depends if I have enough room to the outer trendline, if I can make lots of pips to the outer trendline then I will take the trade, otherwise I will wait for a break of the outer trendline.
  • #3,484
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:21am Feb 10, 2010 5:21am
not much out there i am laying off al JPY pairs with holiday today. Anything on the radar that you see?
Chris
  • #3,485
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:22am Feb 10, 2010 5:22am
actually i have one but it is a break of a range on the gbp/usd
Chris
  • #3,486
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:32am Feb 10, 2010 5:32am
Quoting gctrading1
not much out there i am laying off al JPY pairs with holiday today. Anything on the radar that you see?
I think eur/cad is setting up to a move to the downside. Gonna watch if I can get in on a bpc.
  • #3,487
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:48am Feb 10, 2010 5:48am
Quoting Custos
I think eur/cad is setting up to a move to the downside. Gonna watch if I can get in on a bpc.
yes i show it testing a trendline from the top but if we get a BPC under it that will be a good signal the only thing is i have a 5 pip spread so i need to be on the watch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.png Size: 64 KB
Chris
  • #3,488
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:21am Feb 10, 2010 6:21am
Quoting gctrading1
yes i show it testing a trendline from the top but if we get a BPC under it that will be a good signal the only thing is i have a 5 pip spread so i need to be on the watch
actually I have quite a different view on eur/cad.
Attached is the trendline I look at. It comes all the way from december.
So we are still under the trendline and didn't break through. That's why I said I see the eur/cad still in a downtrend.

best regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad h4 10.2.2010.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #3,489
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:23am Feb 10, 2010 6:23am
Quoting Custos
actually I have quite a different view on eur/cad.
Attached is the trendline I look at. It comes all the way from december.
So we are still under the trendline and didn't break through. That's why I said I see the eur/cad still in a downtrend.

best regards
Agreed.

Same here

I see the BPC already happened on the 1h chart....hmmmm....
  • #3,490
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:28am Feb 10, 2010 6:28am
Quoting Pipalicious
Agreed.

Same here

I see the BPC already happened on the 1h chart....hmmmm....
well, for me the bpc is just happening, yeah, before we had a kind of 1-2-3, that one I also missed, but right now we have the bpc forming retesting the outer retracement trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad h1 10.2.2010.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #3,491
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:40am Feb 10, 2010 6:40am
Quoting Custos
well, for me the bpc is just happening, yeah, before we had a kind of 1-2-3, that one I also missed, but right now we have the bpc forming retesting the outer retracement trendline.
Geeeezzz i need to refine my eyeing skills lol...

I had the retracement line a bit wobly there ha.

Ye i see it too now. I thought id missed it. Then again we have the trade balance report for CAD in 1 hour roughly.

Do you pay attention to red news only or to the orange aswell?

Cheers

Pip
  • #3,492
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:02am Feb 10, 2010 7:02am
Quoting Custos
well, for me the bpc is just happening, yeah, before we had a kind of 1-2-3, that one I also missed, but right now we have the bpc forming retesting the outer retracement trendline.
Hi Custos,

My candle closed as a red - would you say the pin would serve as a b-P-c?

Today is going to be a difficult one, news is upon us shortly
  • #3,493
  • Edited 7:18am Feb 10, 2010 7:05am | Edited 7:18am
Took GBP/JPY based on trendline rejection 141.39. Sitting on 80pips rite now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #3,494
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:25am Feb 10, 2010 7:25am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos,

My candle closed as a red - would you say the pin would serve as a b-P-c?

Today is going to be a difficult one, news is upon us shortly
nope, I wanna see a green bar, otherwise not taking the trade, and only if there are no news in front of my trade.
  • #3,495
  • Feb 10, 2010 7:30am Feb 10, 2010 7:30am
Quoting Custos
nope, I wanna see a green bar, otherwise not taking the trade, and only if there are no news in front of my trade.
Thnx - thought so... news due soon and RN: let's see... Last weeks pip fest is now just a distant memory
  • #3,496
  • Edited 8:05am Feb 10, 2010 7:44am | Edited 8:05am
HI Guys,

while we are killing time on the news - can you please look at this 1hr, the setup is 4hrs...

EU is trending down on 4hrs, trend line drawn, 38% fib from prev-prev swing holding along with 13800 and the Dynamic Resistance.

1hr: breakout of Counter trend line, also breakout of support at 38%fib prev move & 13750

b-p-c required and good to go?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1hr.jpg Size: 310 KB
  • #3,497
  • Feb 10, 2010 8:20am Feb 10, 2010 8:20am
Wonderful thread, NM. I'm sure everyone will do well with your method.
I have traded a very similar way in futures, albeit a different entry method, for quite some time with much success. Adding some forex diversification, was looking around and saw your thread. Good stuff.
Perhaps I can help contribute once I figure out how to setup the position size conversion with IB...as it's in the currency base, not always usd.
  • #3,498
  • Feb 10, 2010 9:07am Feb 10, 2010 9:07am
Quoting Paulette
HI Guys,

while we are killing time on the news - can you please look at this 1hr, the setup is 4hrs...

EU is trending down on 4hrs, trend line drawn, 38% fib from prev-prev swing holding along with 13800 and the Dynamic Resistance.

1hr: breakout of Counter trend line, also breakout of support at 38%fib prev move & 13750

b-p-c required and good to go?
bpc's happen after the break of a retracement trendline, not before.
  • #3,499
  • Feb 10, 2010 9:15am Feb 10, 2010 9:15am
Quoting Custos
bpc's happen after the break of a retracement trendline, not before.
got that - thnx
  • #3,500
  • Feb 10, 2010 10:32am Feb 10, 2010 10:32am
Custos i asume you are in the eurcad trade? What was your entry and stop? Where i would have put my stop i think it would have been hit.
Chris
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