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  • #3,401
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:25pm Feb 9, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Custos
for a touch trade you enter at the touch of confluence. If everything is coming together at 1.4750, then you just enter at that number and hope that the level will hold. with a stop slightly above.
You can also wait for a pin bar or outside bar to confirm that a level is holding and enter at a break of that bar. And finally you can look for a bpc at the break of the retracement trendline to get into the trade. All depends on what you wanna go for. I like all three methods and use them all.

best regards
Thats very interesting Custos.

When in a touch trade how do you go about with moving stops and take profits?

Do you move your stop once it moves xpips in your favour or do you apply certain criterias? Reason i say is because i suppose in a way there must be a balance between risk management and room for it to play out...

I might of missed it somewhere in the thread sorry

Cheers

Pip
  • #3,402
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:30pm Feb 9, 2010 12:30pm
Quote
Quoting Pip Dawg
Exactly where do you enter such a trade?
Originally Posted by EntropyLad http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Question for CUSTOS.

Will you take EUR/CAD SHORT at 1.4750? For a touch trade.

It seems to have all the recipes, major S/R, at RN, at FIB level(38.2%), 30/50 SMA trending down, with the exception of it just decisively breaking to the upside the H4 bearish slanted trendline...giving it momentum.

Your input.


Exactly where do you enter such a trade?
Well, PIP DAWG, that is a good question. I have been studying CUSTOS touch trades...been looking through the charts.....Where do you enter?

Two options i have noticed soo far and still researching...CUSTOS input will be clarifying on this.

OPTION #1. If the S/R levels is soo damn clear and right on the RN...and right to almost to the pip with an exact FIB level...not just within range of 38 and 61...i mean, almost exactly on the 38 or almost exactly on the 50 or almost exactly on the 61 to the pip. You can enter at +/- 5 pips of that RN.

OPTION #2. GO to the 15MINUTES time frame for entry, regardless of whether you spot the pattern on H4 or daily(For now I am only comfortable using H4 or DAILY for the touch trades). Then just wait on the 15minutes for a reversal candle pattern: doji, spinning top, outside bar, pinbar, engulfing pattern, etc. then enter at the close of that, your SL...a few pips above the high or low of the highest/lowest candle or 20 to 25 pips above your entry. Which ever one you prefer.

These are the two things i have noticed so far...of course, i am still researching this and doing a demo.

One other thing...i am not sure trading session trade selection principle really applies to these touch trades, given the fact that you immediately sell 1/2 at +20 or +25 pips. Of course, news are to be avoided.

My two cents. I will let jedi master CUSTOS take it away.

UPDATE: i just read CUSTOS response....just after i finished posting this. Anyways, i am putting it in quote below.

Quote
CUSTOS SAID: for a touch trade you enter at the touch of confluence. If everything is coming together at 1.4750, then you just enter at that number and hope that the level will hold. with a stop slightly above.
You can also wait for a pin bar or outside bar to confirm that a level is holding and enter at a break of that bar. And finally you can look for a bpc at the break of the retracement trendline to get into the trade. All depends on what you wanna go for. I like all three methods and use them all.
  • #3,403
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:37pm Feb 9, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Custos
for a touch trade you enter at the touch of confluence. If everything is coming together at 1.4750, then you just enter at that number and hope that the level will hold. with a stop slightly above.
You can also wait for a pin bar or outside bar to confirm that a level is holding and enter at a break of that bar. And finally you can look for a bpc at the break of the retracement trendline to get into the trade. All depends on what you wanna go for. I like all three methods and use them all.

best regards
Hi Custos, so looking at GU (1hr) you would possibly enter at the lowest level of the pinbar that touches the 38% / 15700 level?
  • #3,404
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:41pm Feb 9, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Thats very interesting Custos.

When in a touch trade how do you go about with moving stops and take profits?

Do you move your stop once it moves xpips in your favour or do you apply certain criterias? Reason i say is because i suppose in a way there must be a balance between risk management and room for it to play out...

I might of missed it somewhere in the thread sorry

Cheers

Pip
for taking partial profits, I will look for the next minor S/R level which could prevent my trade from working out, this is typically 20 to 40 pips away from entry. At that point I will take off 50% of the trade and then I move my stop to break even. The next targets are as usual, swing low and extension of swing.
  • #3,405
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:46pm Feb 9, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos, so looking at GU (1hr) you would possibly enter at the lowest level of the pinbar that touches the 38% / 15700 level?
Dont know how CUSTOS will reply to this...but, let me take a crack at it.

I will look at it from the DAILY chart. I can see the downtrend there.

Then, i will opt for 38% fib at 1.5900, which also coincides with the intersection of a slanted, upward moving trendline that starts from 10/13/09 and touches 12/30/09, offering more S/R. daily price action S/R is at that level too....1.5900.

So, we have

Former retracement low, S/R price action at 1.5900.

WE HAVE our RN at 1.5900

We have our trendline going through 1.5900

We have our 38% fib just below 1.5900(38% = 1.5886)

The trend is down on the DAILY.

That is my best shot.

What say ye, CUSTOS?
  • #3,406
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:46pm Feb 9, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Well, PIP DAWG, that is a good question. I have been studying CUSTOS touch trades...been looking through the charts.....Where do you enter?

Two options i have noticed soo far and still researching...CUSTOS input will be clarifying on this.

OPTION #1. If the...
I totally agree with option #1, good summary. For option two, I normally enter at the break of a doji and stuff like that & I would say I only look for those dojis and other candles on the setup chart, not on lower time-frames. However, that doesn't mean that looking for it on lower time-frames won't work. Just I never tried that.
  • #3,407
  • Feb 9, 2010 12:49pm Feb 9, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos, so looking at GU (1hr) you would possibly enter at the lowest level of the pinbar that touches the 38% / 15700 level?
I am sorry, could you post a chart? not exactly sure what you mean. my 38% is at 15750.
  • #3,408
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:04pm Feb 9, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Dont know how CUSTOS will reply to this...but, let me take a crack at it.

I will look at it from the DAILY chart. I can see the downtrend there.

Then, i will opt for 38% fib at 1.5900, which also coincides with the intersection of a slanted, upward moving trendline that starts from 10/13/09 and touches 12/30/09, offering more S/R. daily price action S/R is at that level too....1.5900.

So, we have

Former retracement low, S/R price action at 1.5900.

WE HAVE our RN at 1.5900

We have our trendline going through 1.5900

We have our 38% fib...
okay, well, I am actually more focused on the area around 1.5850. But gbp/usd is a tough call here for an exact entry point. Using the fibs as a guide, I would pick the 61.8 %.
But overall, I would love to see a more narrowly defined area by the wicks of previous bars. Not exactly a setup I would take for a touch trade. For touch trades everything has to be obvious, the S/R level, lining up with a fib, maybe a trendline and a RN. here I am just not that sure.
Well, just my feel for that pair. I like it more when I have a lot of past price action around the area I want price to stop.
But maybe somebody else can analyze that pair better than me, I can only analyze clear price action, this is a little too muddy for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h4 9.2.2010.gif Size: 75 KB
  • #3,409
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:04pm Feb 9, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Custos
I am sorry, could you post a chart? not exactly sure what you mean. my 38% is at 15750.
Sorry Custos, Typo on my behalf, that pin did hit 15750 / 38%...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4hr.jpg Size: 191 KB
  • #3,410
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:05pm Feb 9, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting Custos
good call, I also got into the aud/usd trade, already up 20 pips.
Thanks, still learning it. Same here, i already closed out +25 pips.

Quoting Custos
hm, I don't know why, but I don't like the eur/cad so much for a touch trade right now. Just the price action in the last couple of days was not that good. Took quite a while to get down and now too fast going up, do you know what I mean?
However, could of course become a good trade. I am just gonna watch that one.
I was a bit worried because it broke the slanted H4 trendline...trendline collapse run are strong stuff. In fact, i like trading slanted trendline collapse when it happens with a area of confluence. My initial reaction was to enter EUR/CAD short trade at 1. 14700 area during asian session yesterday. because that levels also have all the recipes: 61% fib, RN, clear S/R price action, SMA downtrend, H4 slanted trendline not breached.

Quoting Custos
I totally agree with option #1, good summary. For option two, I normally enter at the break of a doji and stuff like that & I would say I only look for those dojis and other candles on the setup chart, not on lower time-frames. However, that doesn't mean that looking for it on lower time-frames won't work. Just I never tried that.
Hmm....I guess, i will demo all three options...i can tell immediately i am instinctively more comfortable with OPTION #1. But definitely practice everything, if nothing else, they will help me refine my ability to select S/R turning points.

Quoting Custos
I am sorry, could you post a chart? not exactly sure what you mean. my 38% is at 15750.
Same here, custos, i dont see what Paulette was talking about on 1hr timeframe...so i went to the DAILY chart of GBP/USD and do my analysis there.
  • #3,411
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:09pm Feb 9, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Custos
okay, well, I am actually more focused on the area around 1.5850. But gbp/usd is a tough call here for an exact entry point. Using the fibs as a guide, I would pick the 61.8 %.
But overall, I would love to see a more narrowly defined area by the wicks of previous bars. Not exactly a setup I would take for a touch trade. For touch trades everything has to be obvious, the S/R level, lining up with a fib, maybe a trendline and a RN. here I am just not that sure.
Well, just my feel for that pair. I like it more when I have a lot of past price action...
on daily chart it looks more narrowly defined, but that is still a 50 pip range, which is too much for me for taking a touch trade. I like 10 to 20 pip ranges, but on lower time-frames I can't really pinpoint the range for that pair right now.
just my take, gbp/usd might do something completely opposite to what I expect, just my view for now.
  • #3,412
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:11pm Feb 9, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos, so looking at GU (1hr) you would possibly enter at the lowest level of the pinbar that touches the 38% / 15700 level?
I don't see 38% here really as an S/R level, not really something (previous price action) standing in front of price screaming STOP and REVERSE. So I wouldn't really wanna take any pinbar break at that level.
  • #3,413
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:14pm Feb 9, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Custos
okay, well, I am actually more focused on the area around 1.5850. But gbp/usd is a tough call here for an exact entry point. Using the fibs as a guide, I would pick the 61.8 %.
But overall, I would love to see a more narrowly defined area by the wicks of previous bars. Not exactly a setup I would take for a touch trade. For touch trades everything has to be obvious, the S/R level, lining up with a fib, maybe a trendline and a RN. here I am just not that sure.
Well, just my feel for that pair. I like it more when I have a lot of past price action...

Hmmm...i was looking at it from the DAILY CHART. Here is the daily chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1265742858
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd daily.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #3,414
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:17pm Feb 9, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Hmmm...i was looking at it from the DAILY CHART. Here is the daily chart:
yes, I would also start at the daily, just tried to point out with the h4 that it is hard to pick an exact level here. The "entry" range looks nice on the daily but I don't feel comfortable pinpointing the entry point here on lower time-frames.
  • #3,415
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:18pm Feb 9, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Hmmm...i was looking at it from the DAILY CHART. Here is the daily chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1265742858
I just read your post, custos:
Quote
on daily chart it looks more narrowly defined, but that is still a 50 pip range, which is too much for me for taking a touch trade. I like 10 to 20 pip ranges, but on lower time-frames I can't really pinpoint the range for that pair right now.
just my take, gbp/usd might do something completely opposite to what I expect, just my view for now.

I see...50pips is too wide...hmmm....see your point. Things are a bit more focused on H4 and below. Hmmm....the more focused, obviously the better.
  • #3,416
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:26pm Feb 9, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Custos
I don't see 38% here really as an S/R level, not really something (previous price action) standing in front of price screaming STOP and REVERSE. So I wouldn't really wanna take any pinbar break at that level.
Thanks, just curiosity more than anything else at this stage - your explanations are great.
  • #3,417
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:35pm Feb 9, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I just read your post, custos:


I see...50pips is too wide...hmmm....see your point. Things are a bit more focused on H4 and below. Hmmm....the more focused, obviously the better.
haha, now you made me reanalyze that pair. If I see the daily as the swinging part and not the h4. then 1.59 lines up better.
Attached is now both the first analysis with the h4 swing and the new analysis with the daily swing.
Now to think of it, entropy analyzed it better the first time than I did.

Actually since the 1.59 lines up now better it's easier to pinpoint good entries on the lower time-frames.

best regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h4 9.2.2010.gif Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd d1 9.2.2010.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #3,418
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:37pm Feb 9, 2010 1:37pm
Since class is in session by Sniper Master Custos,

Here is my take on a few pairs, please, give your input to better refine my understanding.

for NZD/USD, i will aim for 0.7000 level.
for NZD/JPY, I will aim for 63.00 level
for GBP/CHF, hmmm...between 1.6800 or 1.6750. I will err on the side of caution and go with 1.6800.

Damn, i just realized i missed GBP/CAD at 1.6800. Though, i will like to think that 1.6850 looks better.

What do you think of EURGBP daily at 0.8850? That level(0.8850 looks bloody clear even on H4).

I just performed a brief scan of 25 pairs/crosses...and these are the ones screaming at me with all the recipes in place(rn, fib, s/r, trending, slanted trendline,). What is your take, CUSTOS?

Perhaps, i wont mind making this a habit of posting these "expected" touch trades every few days or so, and see what is your take; and if anybody want to take those trades...rock on. We all make good pips together.

Below is the picture of Sniper Master Custos, killing those pips!

http://www.dragunov.net/action/europ...nya_sniper.jpg
  • #3,419
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:47pm Feb 9, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Since class is in session by Sniper Master Custos,

Here is my take on a few pairs, please, give your input to better refine my understanding.

for NZD/USD, i will aim for 0.7000 level.
for NZD/JPY, I will aim for...
Sounds like you get which levels I look for. However make it a habit to look for "entry" ranges, cause you will just not be able to catch the exact spot each time. but the areas you look at are dead-on, I marked the same areas.
However, I don't like gbp/chf right now, that one is ranging around too much for my taste (on daily). Eur/gbp I see an "entry" range between 0.8880 and 0.8850 (on daily). Cause price will very often try to touch the bodies, not only the wicks.

best regards
  • #3,420
  • Feb 9, 2010 1:53pm Feb 9, 2010 1:53pm
How about this for a touch trade?

Is this what you look for?

Its hindsight but id like your opinions on it either way...

Cheers...

Pip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurAud.png Size: 63 KB
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