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  • #15,701
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:06pm Feb 8, 2010 7:06pm
Just reading the last two posts I can offer something to those who do like to take advantage of counter trend opportunities.

Open a demo. Only use that demo to trade long positions. Either from your system, what you see on the charts or the opposite of what you are shorting live.

Take some risks because you can, However, try to keep risk reward ratio realistic. If it is only going to net 20 pips, so be it. set TP @ 20.

You may lose some and if the trend is down, you will surely lose pip opportunities.

BUT this is not the point of the exercise. After a bit of analysis Tech and Fundi, You will begin to identify weakness in trend. Possible short term pivots, as we saw tonight on Euro, Cable and Aussie. All three pairs offered up about 30 to 40 pips of long. Now Multiply that by 3xlots and you got 90.

Better yet because you know the trend is south, you are looking to get out.
Then it "may be time to" slap on another short on your live account. Use your discretion.

This has helped me to see things from "both sides". Some of the hardest trades were going long cable the past week or so. Euro even more difficult at times.

For months there were opportunities with Aussie, Fibre, and Cable to simply take a trade and leave it on for days. Now the USD has shaken the market up again and here we are!

The Goal: to break the barrier of only trading one direction. Sometimes in range especially, (ie: 200 pip range for a week. there are plenty of opps for both short and long. Even if trending one direction. Support and resistance will help for entry and exit.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,702
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:11pm Feb 8, 2010 7:11pm
weekly/daily/4h/h all down , 5 min up,
whoever traded this pair since yesterday should be in money coz it has been ranging inside of this box,
I prefer to wait to see a clearer pic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au-1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #15,703
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:11pm Feb 8, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting Clouds
oh ok. i just thought i heard you say you were long GU, AU and EU or something.
Yea i have AUDUSD and GBPJPY,EURJPY long...

XTrade Correct but guys just undestand one thing,chart before 5 minutes is past,chart before 1h is past,chart before 1 day is past...Just curent price is main thing...
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,704
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:15pm Feb 8, 2010 7:15pm
I don't agree with you on trend. If you take the correct side of the price channel and stay with the trend, consistency goes ways up, risk way down. I review a number of pairs everyday, to see which fit my setups. My first concern is making each trade profitable, then the size of the profit. For me this works quite well and quite frankly don't understand trying to trade against probabilities, as the current trade points out.

Good luck.
BR




Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hmm,

Look trade just what you see not what you expect or what is "main" trend.I said "main" becouse you see trend sell from 1,2,3,4, days ago and you think that is now trend. No that was a trend before 1,2,3,4 days,this is Forex and when you forgot history you can win...When i was undestud that i was begin to earn huge pips in Forex This is just my advice

Cheers
  • #15,705
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:15pm Feb 8, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Yea i have AUDUSD and GBPJPY,EURJPY long...

XTrade Correct but guys just undestand one thing,chart before 5 minutes is past,chart before 1h is past,chart before 1 day is past...Just curent price is main thing...
So you sold GBPJPY and made a bunch of money off it, now you are going long and going to lose a bunch of money. Good luck though, but those all bearish pairs.
  • #15,706
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:19pm Feb 8, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting Big1red9
I don't agree with you on trend. If you take the correct side of the price channel and stay with the trend, consistency goes ways up, risk way down. I review a number of pairs everyday, to see which fit my setups. My first concern is making each trade profitable, then the size of the profit. For me this works quite well and quite frankly don't understand trying to trade against probabilities, as the current trade points out.

Good luck.
BR
hi BR, I wonder if you have any formula to calculate probalility comparing a "trend following trade" and a "counter trend trade",
is there anything out there?
  • #15,707
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:20pm Feb 8, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting Clouds
So you sold GBPJPY and made a bunch of money off it, now you are going long and going to lose a bunch of money. Good luck though, but those all bearish pairs.
Ok my friend,i didnt earn on that huge day i take pips every month,every week

If price hit my SL its ok litle risk and there will be another chance to took my setup



Cheers and happy piping
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,708
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:20pm Feb 8, 2010 7:20pm
Clouds,

I think you have Peter wrong. If he is trading in the present moment. He has closed his long and gone short, booked the loss and now in profits. As this price correction to the downside began an hour ago and keeps dropping minute by minute.

Right Peter?

Regards,
BR

Quoting Clouds
So you sold GBPJPY and made a bunch of money off it, now you are going long and going to lose a bunch of money. Good luck though, but those all bearish pairs.
  • #15,709
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:25pm Feb 8, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting Big1red9
I don't agree with you on trend. If you take the correct side of the price channel and stay with the trend, consistency goes ways up, risk way down. I review a number of pairs everyday, to see which fit my setups. My first concern is making each trade profitable, then the size of the profit. For me this works quite well and quite frankly don't understand trying to trade against probabilities, as the current trade points out.

Good luck.
BR
Big1red my friend i understand what you talking,i was thinking on that way before 6,7 months...That price chanels on trend always works everyone would be a millionaire...

Cheers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,710
  • Edited 7:38pm Feb 8, 2010 7:26pm | Edited 7:38pm
I have made some quick charts to show the idea posted above.
Use Your System or indicators. I just outlined market open. S/R We know the Trend on both pairs is bearish.

Please feel free to comment or criticize.

Edit: Comfort Zone For these Trades will depend on how long you were following market before Aussie open NY close.
I had Just closed my Live shorts on Fibre and Cable due to system. Also expecting Bounce on support on EUR.

THE TL IS intentionally drawn thru the trade box from entry to exit areas.

My EXIT TEXT got CUT off. THere was a 4 Hit @ 8652 A/U No substantial Close above. I'd say safe exit conformation. Pips locked in
Cable was rejected 30+ pips later as well.

Small long on Aussie.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie m5 counter trend 30 pips.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable m5 counter trend 30 pips.gif Size: 25 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,711
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:27pm Feb 8, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Big1red9
Clouds,

I think you have Peter wrong. If he is trading in the present moment. He has closed his long and gone short, booked the loss and now in profits. As this price correction to the downside began an hour ago and keeps dropping minute by minute.

Right Peter?

Regards,
BR
lol,i trade long term i am long from yesterday and now i am minus about 30 pips...Why you thinking i lost pips lol
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,712
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:27pm Feb 8, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Big1red my friend i understand what you talking,i was thinking on that way before 6,7 months...That price chanels on trend always works everyone would be a millionaire...

Cheers
So to become a millionaire, you must randomly go Long in the middle of a bearish trend. Gotcha.
  • #15,713
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:31pm Feb 8, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting Clouds
So to become a millionaire, you must randomly go Long in the middle of a bearish trend. Gotcha.
lol,no you must practice one strategy 1,2,3,4,5 motnhs,that strategy must bring you 1:1 min RRR or 1:2,you must have discipline and patiance,that is all you need.I enterd trade according to my setup.Good Divergence on h1 and good retrace from MA on Daily chart....For you information od Daily chart "Trend" is clearly UP ...



Cheers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,714
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:32pm Feb 8, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting Clouds
So to become a millionaire, you must randomly go Long in the middle of a bearish trend. Gotcha.

OMG,,your such a clown ,,cant beleive you are still not in margin call... whats wrong with peter's entries ??

if i listen to all your anylisis,,its big joke ... uuh sell gbp/usd at 1.5995 ?? sell gbp/jpy at major supp ?? do you really have charts open ? it look you calling entries without charts..

but good luck !
  • #15,715
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:39pm Feb 8, 2010 7:39pm
shahab,

Nothing that I am aware of. I know from many years of experience that timing a trade both in and out against the main trend in what I consider to be trading more than investing, requires a precession that will crush most people and their accounts.

Having said that, for me, that does not mean because a pair has gone 200 pips every day for a week, I can just short it. I could short it on the low and have it come back against me. So for me, where in the PA I place my trade is as important as the direction of it.

I have been all over the block with FX TF's and for me am getting more and more comfy with trading tick and second charts.

TF has a huge impact on this topic. If I am trading with weekly bars, do I consider the minute chart in my decisions. Most likely not, but then having a 1000 pip or more DD is nothing. I hate DD and try the best I know how to time positions so that I keep it to a minimum.

I know this went beyond the simple "NO" I could have given you. But figured I would expand on it a bit.

Sorry I don't know of a quantitative method.
BR

Quoting shahab8b
hi BR, I wonder if you have any formula to calculate probalility comparing a "trend following trade" and a "counter trend trade",
is there anything out there?
  • #15,716
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:41pm Feb 8, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting Gucc
OMG,,your such a clown ,,cant beleive you are still not in margin call... whats wrong with peter's entries ??

if i listen to all your anylisis,,its big joke ... uuh sell gbp/usd at 1.5995 ?? sell gbp/jpy at major supp ?? do you really have charts open ? it look you calling entries without charts..

but good luck !
Gucc for president Only one person on my side lol


Cheers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,717
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:42pm Feb 8, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting Gucc
OMG,,your such a clown ,,cant beleive you are still not in margin call... whats wrong with peter's entries ??

if i listen to all your anylisis,,its big joke ... uuh sell gbp/usd at 1.5995 ?? sell gbp/jpy at major supp ?? do you really have charts open ? it look you calling entries without charts..

but good luck !
No, it was SELL 1.5595 GU, what's wrong with me selling in bearish trends, are you jealous?
  • #15,718
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:42pm Feb 8, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting Big1red9
shahab,

Nothing that I am aware of. I know from many years of experience that timing a trade both in and out against the main trend in what I consider to be trading more than investing, requires a precession that will crush most people and their accounts.

Having said that, for me, that does not mean because a pair has gone 200 pips every day for a week, I can just short it. I could short it on the low and have it come back against me. So for me, where in the PA I place my trade is as important as the direction of it.

I have been all...
I have just one question for you my frined,wich is trend on AUDUSD ?
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,719
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:44pm Feb 8, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Gucc for president Only one person on my side lol


Cheers
Maybe he's your broker,
  • #15,720
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:47pm Feb 8, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting Big1red9
shahab,

Nothing that I am aware of. I know from many years of experience that timing a trade both in and out against the main trend in what I consider to be trading more than investing, requires a precession that will crush most people and their accounts.

Having said that, for me, that does not mean because a pair has gone 200 pips every day for a week, I can just short it. I could short it on the low and have it come back against me. So for me, where in the PA I place my trade is as important as the direction of it.

I have been all over the...
thanx for the reply,
I look at every trade like a bet (like betting on a football team for example) , if you have a high probabilty pattern (let's say 66%-75%) , and you get a good odds( good RRR, 1:1 or better) you are set. there is a guy who calculated so many chart patterns probability, if you like I can send you the ebook.
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