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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #6,021
  • Feb 8, 2010 8:48am Feb 8, 2010 8:48am
Sutton Coldfield is only 2 miles from here, I'm in North Birmingham.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #6,022
  • Feb 8, 2010 2:07pm Feb 8, 2010 2:07pm
61.8 falling off to 50, I've taken the break at the zero. Every one of these has worked out for me so far, Just been lucky I guess. I'll put a stop at the 38.2. 50/50 trade I know.

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MD
Keep smiling
  • #6,023
  • Feb 8, 2010 3:16pm Feb 8, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting Misterdaz
61.8 falling off to 50, I've taken the break at the zero. Every one of these has worked out for me so far, Just been lucky I guess. I'll put a stop at the 38.2. 50/50 trade I know.

Attachment

MD
I notice you don't have 161.8 levels on your fibs. Will you set your TP at 138.2 and call it done? I think I see what you're doin on this one. After you move the fib so 61.8 and 50 line up nicely, the rest is just like Compass' approach on the break of the 0, correct? The previous low is at 1.5532, so you might hit that and then some. 161.8 would be at 1.5526, if you're feelin lucky!

ed
  • #6,024
  • Feb 8, 2010 3:49pm Feb 8, 2010 3:49pm
138.2 is enough for me. Still only testing this but finding many winners. This is I hope something like Thom does things. Still a breakout system I suppose but to quote someone else we take the fib to the action and fit it to price, rather than wait for the price to come to the fib.

In that particular fib I am looking for a short so I start from the nearest sensible high (resistance) and pull it back and down looking for a candle to sit up under the 61.8 level on the right. You wont always get a candle sit so nicely immediately under the 50 as well but this is usually a good sign for a setup on the break of the zero. Not all setups are like this but they are not difficult to find once you know what to look for.

This could fail yet as the one contentiuos issue is where to put the stop. I know Thom has been known to put them on the other side of the fib as he is so confident he will win. Maybe I'll get to that stage who knows.

Remeber Ed, if you can get enough consistent winners you do not need to go for swathes of points providing your stops are not too wide. I've only been risking 2% per trade on a demo on this so far, the first week I made 20%. I'll put that down to a fluke for now.

I've tried 4 trades today, 2 winners, 1 loser although I couldn't tell you what rules I was applying on that it was more of an experiment. The last one is still running.

Again I repeat this not the only setup. All setups require (for me) at least 2 exact hits of inner fib levels but it's all about how we get there.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,025
  • Feb 8, 2010 3:56pm Feb 8, 2010 3:56pm
GBP YEN on a half hour.

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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,026
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:43pm Feb 8, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting Checkz
I closed the Aud/Usd and Gbp/Usd trades was because they had hit there 1.38 fib ext on the monthly chart and I think that Skunny called the hitting of the 1.38 ext a completion. So Im sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see whats going to happen next.
Egads... I missed that completely. I will keep an eye on the monthly fib extensions in future to make sure I don't place a trade with TP anywhere beyond the monthly 138 extensions.
  • #6,027
  • Feb 9, 2010 5:33am Feb 9, 2010 5:33am
Quoting Naynay
Egads... I missed that completely. I will keep an eye on the monthly fib extensions in future to make sure I don't place a trade with TP anywhere beyond the monthly 138 extensions.
When price hits the monthly 1.38 fib ext and im not sure where it's going to go I go back to FxCompass method of Fibbing the close of the daily candles. My chart shows my fibs drawn on yesterdays candle. This is Gbp/Usd being followed on the 1 hour chart.
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  • #6,028
  • Feb 9, 2010 9:34am Feb 9, 2010 9:34am
Did anybody make money trading Gbp/Usd? Well I made a little bit on it that relieved some of my previous losses.
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  • #6,029
  • Feb 9, 2010 10:11am Feb 9, 2010 10:11am
I went back and backtested what would have happened if I had defined my monthly trading range and then traded daily moving my fibs only when the 1.38 fib ext was hit and I discovered that knowing the monthly range produced 7 winners. I fibbed yesterdays candle because it was a penetration and according to ionf0ster s/r thats penetrated but not broken should be either taken as a hint of direction or used for a Fib start /end point.
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  • #6,030
  • Feb 10, 2010 2:57am Feb 10, 2010 2:57am
Hi everyone, another lurker here, enjoying playing with this technique. Great to see so much positivity and brainstorming here.

Can someone help with the attached H1. Is it indeed a false break to the downside or is there something I've missed. I saw no other longterm S/R in the way of it hitting the -38 point, yet it stopped rather soon after crossing zero.

Cheers everyone, good trading
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  • #6,031
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:02am Feb 10, 2010 3:02am
again?
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  • #6,032
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:11am Feb 10, 2010 3:11am
Quoting djarum11
again?
for some reason i think you applied the tool oddly...
  • #6,033
  • Feb 10, 2010 2:28pm Feb 10, 2010 2:28pm
I am ready to go short at the zero.

Attached Image


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,034
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:21am Feb 11, 2010 11:21am
I have decided to put my Fib Box method to the test just to see if it will produce profits. Therefore from now on I will be trading Aud/Usd only because the margin price is the cheapest on FXCM and I have a made few changes. First of all I will draw fib boxes on the close of the single monthly and weekly candles in order to get the range for my daily trades and I will only redraw my daily fibs when the 1.38 fib ext is hit. The blue fib box is the monthly. The red fib box is the weekly and the daily is the green fib box. I will start at the close of todays candle!!!!!!
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  • #6,035
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:28pm Feb 11, 2010 11:28pm
Checkz,

Give me more details on your trading method and I will attempt to EA-ify it.
I tend to like getting mechanical strategies and turning them into EAs because that's pretty much the only way you'll know ahead of time if the strategy is profitable long term.

I'm going to do something similar with daily breakouts into the 138, keeping in mind the monthly fibs and the requirements of needing a proper retracement first (checking candles on the 1Hr charts) to avoid trading on the direction indicating breakouts.
  • #6,036
  • Feb 12, 2010 11:06am Feb 12, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Checkz
I have decided to put my Fib Box method to the test just to see if it will produce profits. Therefore from now on I will be trading Aud/Usd only because the margin price is the cheapest on FXCM and I have a made few changes. First of all I will draw fib boxes on the close of the single monthly and weekly candles in order to get the range for my daily trades and I will only redraw my daily fibs when the 1.38 fib ext is hit. The blue fib box is the monthly. The red fib box is the weekly and the...
I like the starting point for your trades Checkz.

Weekly monthly Fibs creating the framework would make a rock solid trade.

Maybe you could set down some rules if Nayanay is happy to EA them.

I think a Fib based EA would have great potential.
  • #6,037
  • Feb 12, 2010 11:19am Feb 12, 2010 11:19am
Quoting Naynay
Checkz,

Give me more details on your trading method and I will attempt to EA-ify it.
I tend to like getting mechanical strategies and turning them into EAs because that's pretty much the only way you'll know ahead of time if the strategy is profitable long term.

I'm going to do something similar with daily breakouts into the 138, keeping in mind the monthly fibs and the requirements of needing a proper retracement first (checking candles on the 1Hr charts) to avoid trading on the direction indicating breakouts.
For right now this is all I have come up with so far. Im still in the testing phase. But basically all I'm doing is trying to narrow down a trading range to trade daily. Also the reason why I start off with a monthly fib and then add a weekly fib is I started noticing that many times when my 1.38 fib ext wasn't hit on the daily was because it had already hit it's extension on the weekly or daily.
  • #6,038
  • Feb 12, 2010 11:28am Feb 12, 2010 11:28am
Quoting FX Compass
I like the starting point for your trades Checkz.

Weekly monthly Fibs creating the framework would make a rock solid trade.

Maybe you could set down some rules if Nayanay is happy to EA them.

I think a Fib based EA would have great potential.
It's good to hear from the fib master himself. I also agree that a fib based EA would have great potential the problem is I don't have anymore rules. It's so simple it's basically rule-less. What I basically am doing is trading with the fib boxes and posting my trades on the Aud/Usd and showing everybody if they work or not. If you have anything to add please feel free to let me know.
  • #6,039
  • Feb 12, 2010 11:33am Feb 12, 2010 11:33am
A while ago I started experimenting with Fibs. I change the fib levels to .33 .50 .66 .75 .80 .90. I fibbed the last monthly candle, the last weekly and the last daily in diferent colors and what I saw was very impressive. Overlapping levels showed strong S/R qualities. What IŽm trying to say is that the boxes are a very good idea and it will work(IMHO) to mine version I discarded it because I had the levels but didnŽt know how to play them...I think now with the levels you guys use and the rules it could be a great mix.

IŽll be following.

Good luck.
Red.
  • #6,040
  • Feb 12, 2010 12:28pm Feb 12, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting Rednose
A while ago I started experimenting with Fibs. I change the fib levels to .33 .50 .66 .75 .80 .90.
This post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5156

gives you the correct levels to use and the reason why.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
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