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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #3,301
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:16am Feb 8, 2010 7:16am
Current Market Strength(FCI) for those who are interested.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1265634977
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fci at 8am est.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #3,302
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:19am Feb 8, 2010 7:19am
Right now it appears everything we have been watching is ranging, and I think the markets are trying to catch a breath from last week, no real bias yet today, in a couple of hours when the NY session starts moving some money I think then we will get a better handle on which way these pairs are going to for the day, we have not had much of a retracement yet on the longer time frames, so it will be interesting to see what the NY session brings.

I have noticed that around 9:00AM EST or soon thereafter is when the NY session starts moving this market, I am not sure why it takes them so long after they open the doors, but that is the way it seems.

--NM
  • #3,303
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:20am Feb 8, 2010 7:20am
Quoting EntropyLad
Current Market Strength(FCI) for those who are interested.
Your FCI is also showing the markets beginning to range somewhat, soon the NY session will make a determination I hope and at least give a bias one way or the other...
--NM
  • #3,304
  • Feb 8, 2010 7:34am Feb 8, 2010 7:34am
Quoting EntropyLad
Current Market Strength(FCI) for those who are interested.
Ah, now I know why usd is knocking on a few strong S/R levels... Thanx Entropy
  • #3,305
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:00am Feb 8, 2010 9:00am
Quoting Paulette
Guys,

my 2cents on GU, it has now bounced off the day "support/trend line" (not sure which term to use now) yet again:

tf day: line starts low of 8 July 09, 28 Sept 09, 13 oct 09, 5 feb 09, tried it twice already today... Seems to be forming a strongish support?

I learned this little trick from NM - any thoughts?

EU also seems to have found itself a nice support to sit on: +- 13640 area. This was S/R area: 7-15 Oct 08, 19-26 Mrch 09, 10-19 May 09
yes, I think gbp/usd is now in a range. You could trade it in-range or wait for a breakout to the downside tomorrow during london.
  • #3,306
  • Edited 9:40am Feb 8, 2010 9:15am | Edited 9:40am
Since today there are no really good setups, I want to post something I got into earlier today, but that is more based on expectations and against overall market trend.
I expect price to retrace back to around 1.3850. Now since price came down to the retracement trendline, which coincided with an S/R level and the 76.4% fib retracement, I took a long. Didn't take any profit yet, but moved my stop to b/e.
However, here I went in with very small position size because it is low probability: against the trend, and 76.4% fib is normally too far of a stretch for a new swing up. That's why I moved my stop pretty fast to b/e.

Entry: 1.3645
Stop: 1.3639
First target: 1.3710
Second target: 1.3820
Overall R:R: 17:1, if everything goes as planned.

Attached is M15 eur/usd chart.

best regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd m15 8.2.2010.gif Size: 66 KB
  • #3,307
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:16am Feb 8, 2010 9:16am
I would sure like to see the GBPUSD retrace upto about the .5650 level at least on the 1hr time frame anyway...

--NM
  • #3,308
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:21am Feb 8, 2010 9:21am
Quoting Custos
Since today there are no really good setups, I want to post something I got into earlier today, but that is more based on expectations and against overall market trend.
I expect price to retrace back to around 1.3850. Now since price came down to the retracement trendline, which coincided with an S/R level and the 76.4% fib retracement, I took a long. Didn't take any profit yet, but moved my stop to b/e.
However, here I went in with very small position size because it is low probability: against the trend, and 76.4% fib is normally to far of a...
I hope it works out for you, sometimes it seems almost easier on the retracements than it is on the impulse...I have taken a few of those trades before...

--NM
  • #3,309
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:47am Feb 8, 2010 9:47am
Funny...when I first started with this trading method I felt so uncomfortable with the longer term time frames...4H/Daily. Now I feel uncomfortable with the short term time frames. If I don't see a pull back to the 30/50 ma on the 4H I don't care for it.
  • #3,310
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:52am Feb 8, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Pip Dawg
Funny...when I first started with this trading method I felt so uncomfortable with the longer term time frames...4H/Daily. Now I feel uncomfortable with the short term time frames. If I don't see a pull back to the 30/50 ma on the 4H I don't care for it.
haha, I know what you mean. When I started with this I had exactly the same feelings. But after a while you realize how much better the setups are on the longer-term time frames and when they meet all requirements.
  • #3,311
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:52am Feb 8, 2010 9:52am
Quoting Pip Dawg
Funny...when I first started with this trading method I felt so uncomfortable with the longer term time frames...4H/Daily. Now I feel uncomfortable with the short term time frames. If I don't see a pull back to the 30/50 ma on the 4H I don't care for it.
LOL that is one nice thing about those lines, the market will always come back to them, not that I use them for my entries so much but I do use use them to determine how wild the trend really is, if it is to wild I will pass on it...I like the nice tame trends...I use the confluence of S/R to determine my entries but those lines really help in judging the condition of the trend, on the TF your looking to trade.

--NM
  • #3,312
  • Feb 8, 2010 9:56am Feb 8, 2010 9:56am
Quoting Custos
haha, I know what you mean. When I started with this I had exactly the same feelings. But after a while you realize how much better the setups are on the longer-term time frames and when they meet all requirements.
I'm still having trouble with the waiting but I think after a while I will calm down a bit. Wanting to be in the trade and making the pips is really a psychological thing isn't it?
  • #3,313
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:01am Feb 8, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Pip Dawg
I'm still having trouble with the waiting but I think after a while I will calm down a bit. Wanting to be in the trade and making the pips is really a psychological thing isn't it?
I think about 80% of trading is psychological, the rest is luck...

--NM
  • #3,314
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:02am Feb 8, 2010 10:02am
Quoting NightMoves
LOL that is one nice thing about those lines, the market will always come back to them, not that I use them for my entries so much but I do use use them to determine how wild the trend really is, if it is to wild I will pass on it...I like the nice tame trends...I use the confluence of S/R to determine my entries but those lines really help in judging the condition of the trend, on the TF your looking to trade.

--NM
Good to hear your sentiments on the TF issue, I am starting to feel the same. Last week I made notes on 3 charts to first pull back to those 38-50 levels, and they did, this week I have done the same...

What appeals to me as well is that you have time to plan and review your trade & entry.
  • #3,315
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:03am Feb 8, 2010 10:03am
Quoting Pip Dawg
I'm still having trouble with the waiting but I think after a while I will calm down a bit. Wanting to be in the trade and making the pips is really a psychological thing isn't it?
I am also a very impatient person, but what I always do is to play around with a small percentage of my account until the good setups unfold. Like today, I entered against overall market direction, just playing around.
Also helps in getting to know the markets better and better. So if you have troubles waiting, then just drop your lot-size and trade around a little without risking much (also without winning much).
And once a good setup develops again you can hit it with full lot-size.

best regards
  • #3,316
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:09am Feb 8, 2010 10:09am
Quoting Custos
I am also a very impatient person, but what I always do is to play around with a small percentage of my account until the good setups unfold. Like today, I entered against overall market direction, just playing around.
Also helps in getting to know the markets better and better. So if you have troubles waiting, then just drop your lot-size and trade around a little without risking much (also without winning much).
And once a good setup develops again you can hit it with full lot-size.

best regards
CUSTOS,
You are a sniper on all levels arent you....

--NM
  • #3,317
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:10am Feb 8, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Paulette
Good to hear your sentiments on the TF issue, I am starting to feel the same. Last week I made notes on 3 charts to first pull back to those 38-50 levels, and they did, this week I have done the same...

What appeals to me as well is that you have time to plan and review your trade & entry.
yes, planning is definitely important. Without a plan we can't react well to different market situations. I used to mark S/R levels & price action I expect in the upcoming days and how I would react to that price-action. Well, now I do most of that in my head, but in the beginning that was really helpful, also in determining which setups are really good and which p/a would make me not take the setup at all or when to bail out.
Writing down thoughts and notes and analyzing trades is really important in my opinion.

best regards.
  • #3,318
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:11am Feb 8, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Paulette
Good to hear your sentiments on the TF issue, I am starting to feel the same. Last week I made notes on 3 charts to first pull back to those 38-50 levels, and they did, this week I have done the same...

What appeals to me as well is that you have time to plan and review your trade & entry.
Yes exactly, just wait for the market to come to you, no reason to chase it, it will be back to pick you up!

--NM
  • #3,319
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:11am Feb 8, 2010 10:11am
Quoting NightMoves
CUSTOS,
You are a sniper on all levels arent you....

--NM
haha, thanks, unfortunately I used such a small percentage of my account, that that move doesn't really matter much to the balance, but pip-wise I am quite happy
  • #3,320
  • Feb 8, 2010 10:12am Feb 8, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Paulette
Good to hear your sentiments on the TF issue, I am starting to feel the same. Last week I made notes on 3 charts to first pull back to those 38-50 levels, and they did, this week I have done the same...

What appeals to me as well is that you have time to plan and review your trade & entry.
That is true...I do like having the time to plan. I have had some great trades after I've done the waiting and planning for the setup. I'm not used to getting almost triple digit pip profits at times.
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