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  • #13,701
  • Feb 6, 2010 8:32am Feb 6, 2010 8:32am
Support and resistance trading was alive and well last week.
Does anyone care to comment about the daily pin bars that formed on the daily charts of several key markets? Do you believe them to be significant or just a rush to exit dollar longs and risk shorts at the end of the week?
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  • #13,702
  • Feb 6, 2010 8:38am Feb 6, 2010 8:38am
More charts
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  • #13,703
  • Feb 6, 2010 9:20am Feb 6, 2010 9:20am
Quoting smikester
Well I found that and asked BRV about it. He said he wished it could be deleted because it was not a succesful strategy. However, if you click on his name somewhere in this thread you will go to his profile. If you then choose one of his early threads you will find the information.
smikster,
i appreciate your help.
  • #13,704
  • Feb 6, 2010 11:34am Feb 6, 2010 11:34am
Quoting bvfx
smikster,
i appreciate your help.


Daily highs and lows are actually quite good support/ resistance levels.
I always utilize them in my daily plan.
  • #13,705
  • Feb 6, 2010 11:38am Feb 6, 2010 11:38am
Quoting shiko
Daily highs and lows are actually quite good support/ resistance levels.
I always utilize them in my daily plan.
yes levels from montly are stronger than from weekly>daily etc. If we have even very strong uptrend threre will be a lot of small pullbacks in intrady from daily high/lows in previus downtrend. EUR/USD is perfect example
  • #13,706
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:01pm Feb 6, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting wasskii
yes levels from montly are stronger than from weekly>daily etc. If we have even very strong uptrend threre will be a lot of small pullbacks in intrady from daily high/lows in previus downtrend. EUR/USD is perfect example

If you have noticed, it is good to fade those highs/ lows once. also i do not do it. but once it is broken and price bounced from it after break out it is a good sign of trend continuation. This is what i am looking for. I take S/R levels only along the trend on pull backs. Going against trend looks like too risky to me.
  • #13,707
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:13pm Feb 6, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting shiko
If you have noticed, it is good to fade those highs/ lows once. also i do not do it. but once it is broken and price bounced from it after break out it is a good sign of trend continuation. This is what i am looking for. I take S/R levels only along the trend on pull backs. Going against trend looks like too risky to me.
i see Your poit great idea
  • #13,708
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:17pm Feb 6, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting wasskii
i see Your poit great idea

Yeah, you can try it
But carefully, know where you are going to exit at loss...
  • #13,709
  • Feb 6, 2010 8:24pm Feb 6, 2010 8:24pm
Just posting this to say thanks BRV for this great thread... i have been going through this thread quite sometime and find that trading forex no brainer way is profitable... will try to implement these ideas in my trading
Anything is possible; everything is negotiable
  • #13,710
  • Feb 7, 2010 2:19am Feb 7, 2010 2:19am
What do you think about the gold chart?

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/3156/goldru.jpg



Pullback to the 38,2% Fib + the base of the triangle and then further down? Maybe to the 50% fib max? What do you think?
  • #13,711
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:33am Feb 7, 2010 7:33am
Quoting mikeb
What do you think about the gold chart?

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/3156/goldru.jpg



Pullback to the 38,2% Fib + the base of the triangle and then further down? Maybe to the 50% fib max? What do you think?
Too complicated.
  • #13,712
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:01am Feb 7, 2010 8:01am
Quoting Interceptor
Too complicated.
Yes, it is complicated. The horizontal S/R is too wide here. Nevertheless, if price breaks up the red line, my guess would be in the figure.
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  • #13,713
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:20am Feb 7, 2010 8:20am
Quoting kk007
Yes, it is complicated.
Great chart! It actually looks too easy... Not complicated at all. I would be looking for a short PA at 61.8 fibo on the trendline. Alternatively, if you dont mind counter trend trades - look for a pullback to the support line once the price breaks it to the upside (if it does...). Or possible short on the pullback from that red line. Lots of trading opportunities here.
  • #13,714
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:24am Feb 7, 2010 8:24am
Quoting cammomile
Great chart! It actually looks too easy... Not complicated at all. I would be looking for a short PA at 61.8 fibo on the trendline. Alternatively, if you dont mind counter trend trades - look for a pullback to the support line once the price breaks it to the upside (if it does...). Or possible short on the pullback from that red line. Lots of trading opportunities here.
All you said is possible. But I am only interested in talking about high-opportunity setup. Your style may be profitable, but I am not sure how high is your profit/loss ratio.
  • #13,715
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:31am Feb 7, 2010 8:31am
Quoting kk007
Yes, it is complicated. The horizontal S/R is too wide here. Nevertheless, if price breaks up the red line, my guess would be in the figure.

Yeah, i agree. And a really nice support level would be 1027-1021 and then up again. So maybe it will look like this:

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9462/gold2u.jpg
  • #13,716
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:54am Feb 7, 2010 8:54am
It doesn't matter what my "profit/loss ratio" is. I am not trying to tell you what is right or wrong here. This is your own decision how to trade this chart. The exhaustion bar (pin bar) shows you that the market is likely to go up. How far up it could go with the resistance so close? Who knows... You can always pay some money to test it and then scale into it later if you were right. All entirely up to you. I can not tell you - "definitely sell once the price reaches 61.8 fibo". It might not get there after all. You have to "trade what you see", not what you imagine in your mind.
  • #13,717
  • Feb 7, 2010 9:04am Feb 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting cammomile
It doesn't matter what my "profit/loss ratio" is. I am not trying to tell you what is right or wrong here. This is your own decision how to trade this chart. The exhaustion bar (pin bar) shows you that the market is likely to go up. How far up it could go with the resistance so close? Who knows... You can always pay some money to test it and then scale into it later if you were right. All entirely up to you. I can not tell you - "definitely sell once the price reaches 61.8 fibo". It might not get there after all. You have to "trade what you...
Then I think it is not that "too easy" as you said earlier.
  • #13,718
  • Feb 7, 2010 9:06am Feb 7, 2010 9:06am
Quoting mikeb
Yeah, i agree. And a really nice support level would be 1027-1021 and then up again. So maybe it will look like this:

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9462/gold2u.jpg
No sure if 1021-27 strong enough to make the possible rebound, but you have a good guess I think.
  • #13,719
  • Edited 9:47am Feb 7, 2010 9:26am | Edited 9:47am
Its nice to see good constructive discussion going on in the thread. Its been a while.

This is my opinion regarding the matter. Nothing on the chart tells me to place a pending order to sell. However, I would carefully watch price action as soon as those levels mentioned are hit. If there is a way to place a trade with minimal risk that lines up with the immediate condition of the market and order flow place a trade. Its not wise to say that a fib number has special meaning and is going to cause the market to reverse right away.

High probability set-up is an extremely elusive thing. If one doesn't know how to trade all of their trades will be low probability. All of these type of set-ups discussed here in the thread have acceptable probability.

Probability does not increase because your hitting the 61.8% fib rather than the 50% fib. Or you are hitting R1 that lines up with a horizontal S&R level and a trend line. It doesn't increase because you are using a H2 chart instead of a H1. That is all bs that is disseminated by non professionals. The market moves because of order flow and daily condition. Line up those two things with s&r levels and your trading will become high probability. The concept that confluence will drastically improve your set-ups is partially not true. Its improves it very minimally. Look at this recent downtrend there were many confluence s&r levels that got crushed. Confluence is just a place to pay careful attention to the market.

I know I'm going against the grain with this so I would love to here BRV's thoughts regarding this or anyone else's for that matter.
  • #13,720
  • Feb 7, 2010 9:54am Feb 7, 2010 9:54am
Quoting kk007
Then I think it is not that "too easy" as you said earlier.
It is easy, once you know how and have a plan. This is what this thread teaches us.

I repeat: nobody can tell you "oh yeah surely buy at this level". If they do (like in some threads here) they usually dont have a clue.

Have a plan of what are you going to do once you see the chart developing.
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