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AUD/USD

  • #15,621
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:01pm Feb 5, 2010 5:01pm
I see a retrace next week of a few hundred pips, then later in the week a big drop back down to 8554.
  • #15,622
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:17pm Feb 5, 2010 6:17pm
I'm less bearish now (short term ~ 0-1week) given the data release.
Also make a note of the revision number from last months non-farm from -85K to -150K, This causes me to think that the downtrend for AUD may have been exaggerated.

There is also a likely hood of GOLD retracing up to test 1078 in the comming days. AUD/USD will therefore likely to range between 0.8780-0.8600
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bear.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #15,623
  • Feb 5, 2010 8:45pm Feb 5, 2010 8:45pm
actualy i can not analyze this pair this time, ha3, so i think i would follow the most dominant voice here, right now, for a short time trade still 50 for short and 50 for long.
  • #15,624
  • Feb 6, 2010 10:48pm Feb 6, 2010 10:48pm
imho the downtrend will continue Gfc No 2 coming up aud/usd went to 60 cent mark
  • #15,625
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:48am Feb 7, 2010 5:48am
AUDUSD breaks below 0.8734 support and reaches as low as 0.8577 level. Deeper decline is still possible next week and target would be at 0.8500 area. However, next cycle bottom on daily chart is nearing and bounce towards 0.9000 may be expected after touching 0.8500 level.

For long term analysis, AUDUSD has formed a cycle top at 0.9404 level on weekly chart. Fall towards 0.8500 area is expected.
  • #15,626
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:48pm Feb 7, 2010 5:48pm
Futures Open Interest is +552
Options Open Interest is -6,718
  • #15,627
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:58pm Feb 7, 2010 5:58pm
Opened buy at 0.8670 Sl 0.8570 TP i will wait to see exit on my stratregy or 1:1 RRR ...




Cheers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #15,628
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:21pm Feb 7, 2010 6:21pm
This week is tricky. 95% chance of a lower low down to at least 8554 but from the chart on the right, the bounce off the green lows at 8579 on Friday means that it has low probability of happening early in the week. That bounce will normally push it back to the green highs first, currently at 8894. This is the same setup as the week of 23 November 09, so I am looking for a similar scenario to play out.

There is always the possibility that we just head straight down on Monday but I don't think that the position of the S&P favours helping that situation.

I currently hold small a small long in aud at 8660 and in the euro at 1.3635 with stops below the days lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 22 KB
  • #15,629
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:35pm Feb 7, 2010 6:35pm
short still in play below .87 , IMO
Nikkei playing below 10,000 just a few min ago
Attached Image
  • #15,630
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:39pm Feb 7, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting amyc
This week is tricky. 95% chance of a lower low down to at least 8554 but from the chart on the right, the bounce off the green lows at 8579 on Friday means that it has low probability of happening early in the week. That bounce will normally push it back to the green highs first, currently at 8894. This is the same setup as the week of 23 November 09, so I am looking for a similar scenario to play out.

There is always the possibility that we just head straight down on Monday but I don't think that the position of the S&P favours helping that...
I am long from 8650, will exit before 10 pm local time in Sydney. I think we have a long day ahead ( literally).
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,631
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:48pm Feb 7, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting tradoholic
I am long from 8650, will exit before 10 pm local time in Sydney. I think we have a long day ahead ( literally).
nice entry! I have also flipped to long biased and expect the Aussie to gain for this week. Ive scalped my first 20 pips long from 8656
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #15,632
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:49pm Feb 7, 2010 6:49pm
DX chart

Last week the dollar moved down early in the week to the pink bottom at 78.85. I am looking for it to make a similar pattern this week before adding aud and euro shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 12 KB
  • #15,633
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:51pm Feb 7, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting Clouds
short still in play below .87 , IMO
Nikkei playing below 10,000 just a few min ago
Attachment
G'day Clouds,
On Friday, US markets covered the lossed during the last hours of trading. This would have been a boost for the local markets here as it gets the signal from the last close. I am totally with you on the down trend, but I think that there would be a bit of an up move prior to session opening in NY.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,634
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:57pm Feb 7, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting tradoholic
G'day Clouds,
On Friday, US markets covered the lossed during the last hours of trading. This would have been a boost for the local markets here as it gets the signal from the last close. I am totally with you on the down trend, but I think that there would be a bit of an up move prior to session opening in NY.
The markets did not recover. It just went back to test 10K +-.

Anyway, I "might" go long above .87. If it comes to that.
  • #15,635
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:00pm Feb 7, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting tradoholic
G'day Clouds,
On Friday, US markets covered the lossed during the last hours of trading. .
Let's see if Nikkei can hold above 10k.
  • #15,636
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:03pm Feb 7, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting pipsbull
I'll have my buy orders at .86 ready
The daily TL holded for now. If it manages to stay above the .865 level then test of .877
  • #15,637
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:06pm Feb 7, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting Clouds
The markets did not recover. It just went back to test 10K +-.

Anyway, I "might" go long above .87. If it comes to that.
My guess is that the dow will creep up above 10k again before the NY session and then sometime during the session it will get hammered again.
This will take the ASX and (ultimately) AUD up as well before making a shorting set up again.
I closed my Dow shorts at 10030, and am waiting to go short again. The ASX will be good for a short as well.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,638
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:09pm Feb 7, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting tradoholic
My guess is that the dow will creep up above 10k again before the NY session and then sometime during the session it will get hammered again.
This will take the ASX and (ultimately) AUD up as well before making a shorting set up again.
I closed my Dow shorts at 10030, and am waiting to go short again. The ASX will be good for a short as well.
A short term intraday hammering or a lower close? I was expecting US markets to hold up tonight.
  • #15,639
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:11pm Feb 7, 2010 7:11pm
After Gold breaking a major support, would make me too uncomfortable holding anything short dollar. Not concerned how any charts look expect for monthly/weekly.
  • #15,640
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:28pm Feb 7, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting amyc
A short term intraday hammering or a lower close? I was expecting US markets to hold up tonight.
10k on the dow is a Psychological barrier, as I mentioned before I did not think it would break in Feb, now that it has I am certain that it would retest it a few times till it breaks clear. I mentioned my long term view to you before, we are well on the way.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
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